- Govinda Neupane
Formation of the new Unified Maoist-led government has created hype among intelligentsia in Kathmandu. A large majority of them dislikes Unified Maoist but likes Prime Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai. It is strange but true. Dr. Bhattarai has been considered a genius for a long time. The support available for him is primarily based on his background, particularly his academic records and his tax collection ability during his tenure as Finance Minister. After being the Prime Minister, he has taken some steps, though cosmetic in nature but quite popular among the intelligentsia. These steps include the Mustang Jeep, lunch at Sigh Durbar cafeteria, announcement of a few relief measures etc. Individuals could play important roles. However, an individual could not transform a society. The politics they represent makes the difference. Hence, leaving him alone here, I like to explore probable course of Nepali politics.
The Unified Maoist got the opportunity to lead the government, second time. The first Unified Maoist-led government is known for selling dreams of all-round transformation and buying political compost to nurture parliamentary sapling inside the party. Prachanda's government never seriously concentrated in any real issues, rather he was spreading everywhere. He sounded a man in hurry.. During that time, his control over the party was intact as he was still the superhero of the revolution. Gradually, he demystified himself. His party also contributed to demystify him. The Unified Maoist party tried to look communist to its base and democratic to its new found galaxy. The new galaxy of parliamentary fame incorporated it with some serious pre-conditions. The pre-conditions included that the Unified Maoist had to renounce violence, disband their fighting force, which they call PLA, revert to old societal structure in economic relationships by surrendering the land they seized during insurgency, and finally accept pluralism in all sphere of socio-political values, systems and practices. Gradually, the party opened its doors to individuals, groups and smaller parties to get a majority to meet the conditions put forward by the great galaxy of parliamentary fame. The leadership used two types of fodders to feed its cadres and supporting grassroots on one side of the divide and to convince its new national and international friends on the other side. The first was a basket of anti-India rhetoric and strikes, including the suicidal 'indefinite general strike' and several industrial closures. It helped the party to maintain the revolutionary posture. The second was accepting "made in India" political course more indirectly and attending to meet the pre-conditions as mentioned above. The first course helped to soften, deform and disband the hard core revolutionaries gradually and the second course broadened the acceptance among new national and international friends like Nepali Congress, Unified Marxist-Leninist, India, Europe and America.
Now, inside the Unified Maoist party, the line struggle has centered on demobilization of the PLA either through integration with Nepal army or by rehabilitating them in the society. The leaders are fighting, the cadres are joining them and the public at large are watching the fight with bewilderment and skepticism. The side the Unified Maoist camel will sit is already clear. The majority will go for demobilization as this is a major condition put forward by the parliamentary forces together with India, America and Europe to fully submerge itself into the democratic world. The course of minority led by Kiran-Badal combine is not clear. The minority leadership has not made public any specific tactical or strategic line till date. Anyway, the new government formed over a sandy foundation may continue till it implements "made in India" political course.
The old parliamentary political parties will sit in opposition and utilize any available opportunity to create more pressure on their new Unified Maoist friends to meet the conditions as soon as possible. They also will continue to harvest financial benefits and other opportunities as far as possible. Happy India could use its new found financial muscle to accomplish the task of PLA demobilization by supporting to offer an attractive package or also may provide finances to fund infrastructure projects, though in a cosmetic way. We could even see the development that followed the merger of Sikkim with India. The western countries may throw their hats on the ring. Scandinavian countries, particularly Norway may provide finances as it could project Nepal as its success story in its peace initiatives. It may compensate its failure in Sri Lanka. The Americans, though they are in difficulty in managing bread for themselves, may throw a few million dollars by printing money as they always do as one of the most undisciplined nation in the world. Hence, we could have a euphoric environment exactly similar to the post-1990 days. During that time, we were waiting for a giant Russian cargo plane that could bring Singapore to Nepal. The Prime Minister of that time had promised to make Nepal Singapore in no time. That did not happen that time, nor will this happen this time.
More than 1400 people sacrificed their lives either in establishing a new order or protecting the existing socio-political order. However, what we achieved?
The grassroots is more aware of their conditions, prospects and the hostilities that surround them. The social hierarchy has started to crumble down. The social power structure in the society has got changed drastically. The mouths are open. The spirit has been reinvented. The sense of power has empowered the previously marginalized and economically oppressed. The women are not only dreaming equality but also demanding to bring it into practice. The oppressed nationalities have come forward and are asking for greater access to opportunities and are striving hard for establishing their shining identities in a federal Nepal. The monarchy is gone. These are remarkable achievements. However, when we compare our achievements with that of other nations, sadness governs our thought processes. Poverty, illiteracy, ill health, oppression, marginalization etc continue to challenge our conscience.
A large percentage of people are still surviving under extreme poverty. The progress what we have attained has been grabbed by a tiny minority mostly composed of the upper middle class and urban elites. Inequalities exist in their extreme. Hence, the society has changed in incremental term, but is the same in structural term. The structures of the old society have started to crumble. However, they are very much dominant even today. Hence, there is the need of transformational ideals, actions and arrangements.
But, how the process moves ahead that addresses the need after such a major setback? The Maoist (not Unified Maoist) left the course at the middle of the journey. Yes, there is scarcity but it is still not a situation of disastrous famine. Be they minority inside the Unified Maoist or some new entities to take the lead; the endeavors that once the Maoist initiated, championed and developed would continue.
The euphoria originated due to the formation of new Unified Maoist-led government will be over sooner than later. The new endeavors will take shape and different organized forces would emerge. The new heroes will appear. And, the class confrontation will continue till a fundamentally different society comes into existence and a new progressive state power is established. The oppressed nationalities will continue their struggle to meeting their aspirations that will help them getting greater access and shinning identity. The Dalits will never sit idle till their emancipation is attained. The people have no option other than to continue their forward march. We took rest for about five years; it is time to start a long journey, once again.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Monday, August 22, 2011
A Cursory Look on Political Developments in Nepal
Govinda Neupane
Even after a long and painful waiting period of more than four years, the Nepali people could not see rays of hope and the mile stone where the transition ends. Frustration has become the talking agenda for a large majority. The leaders are busy building the personal empire and ensuring luxury and comfort for them. The people are seeing the leaders and their notorious acts and have become speechless. They, particularly the disciplined cadres, who still cherish the dream of a new Nepal, have been slowly recovering from their own disbeliefs. The most revered leaders and most loved party headquarters have moved 360 degree in all areas encompassing ideology, politics, tactic, strategy and practice. This phenomenon is more true to the cadres and supporters of Unified Communist party of Nepal (Maoist). The change, there, is phenomenal.
Now, it is important to have a cursory look of the political developments, particularly reviewing the developments of recent past so as to have some glimpses of the future.
The 12-point agreement between the Maoist and the parliamentary parties had created new expectations. The Nepalese people were waiting to get rid of many difficulties. Although, the people’s movement of April 2006 succeeded in electing the constituent assembly and abolishing the monarchy, but the new ruling elites utterly failed in generating hope among the people. They talked loudly about the birth of a New Nepal, but that Nepal was neither moving towards peace nor stability nor prosperity.
The Maoist people’s war was naturally violent. During the war, they not only practised armed transformational course of the society, but also imparted skills on the use of weapons, build strong attitudes towards organized attempts to attain goals and generated hope among people that a shiny new day is closer to their lives. So, the expectations had been created aggressively. The failure in materializing the expectation resulted to the emergence of several armed groups.
The parliamentary parties were accustomed to lethargy, cynicism, brinkmanship and greed. They were in a state of rotten potatoes. Simply, they were involved in certain regular rituals, which could be constructed as ‘peaceful struggle’ at times of need. They lined up at the opportune moment together with the Maoists and with India and are continuously harvesting benefits.
The king was an outdated autocrat, who was not only extremely unpopular but also was a useless brat who did not know even the basics of governance. Naturally, the monarchy accumulated all negatives at one point of time and initiated its own downfall.
The anti-monarchy role India played at that particular moment was critically important. India was unhappy with the monarchy as the monarchy was considered as anti-India, historically.
Hence, the Maoists with the strength of people’s power moved ahead in collaboration with the parliamentary political parties as these parties had certain degree of legitimacy on their side. Both of them together joined hands with India to overthrow the autocratic monarchy. India also represented the western power centres. Finally, they formed a coalition to overthrow the monarchy and they succeeded to accomplish that goal.
The days after the success of the movement, brought some honeymoon between the changing Maoists and the parliamentary political parties. They formed an interim government, drafted an interim constitution, organized election for the constituent assembly, abolished monarchy legally, formed government under the Maoists’ leadership and gave some impression that things will move to right direction and a New Nepal could be there sooner. But, that did not happen. The Unified Maoists failed miserably in all fronts, which could initiate radical change in the society. Hence, the Unified Maoist-led government collapsed. The UML-led spineless governments were no different.
After a few years of the success of the mass movement, the scenario got drastically changed. There is all-round frustration. There are tensions in the society. There are clashes of interests. The contradictions between and among nationalities is one particular feature of serious concern. The constitution drafting is facing serious roadblocks and the nature of federalism is one among them.
In political front, there are three forces in full play.
The first camp is that of regressive forces. The former monarch is the de facto leader of this camp. The regressive forces are not that well organized in form but have tremendous power in substance. They are thinly spread within political parties, bureaucracy, army, police, intelligence networks, so-called civil society groups and so on. They sometimes cover themselves as nationalists, in some other occasion as anti-federalists and in some other times present them as Hindu zealots. They sound sometimes as peace preachers and sometimes as human rights defenders. So, they are omnipresent. They work on the basis of issues and try everything to create obstacles in the advancement of the society in all its attributes – values, ethics, beliefs, attitudes, progress etc. These dark forces play skilfully and create platforms where the forces of reform and the forces of transformation clash among and between themselves. These regressive forces have played vital role in maintaining the.
The second camp is composed of reformists. They are in a difficult situation as their cadre base is composed of idealist change activists and their leadership represent the interests of semi- reactionary or reactionary classes. Many among leaders who are at the helm of the political organizations in this camp are overtly foreigner’s darlings. They talk loud to pacify their cadres, to blindfold common people and to camouflage themselves. Hence, this force, which is at the centre stage of the state power, is a coalition of progressive bottom and part-regressive top. The Nepali Congress, UML and Unified Maoist Establishment Platform (UMEP) belong to this reformist camp.
The third camp is that of transformational forces. The Mohan Baidya-led Maoist platform, Matrika Yadav-led Maoists, Mani Thapa-led Maoists etc belong to this camp. There are others also such as Kirat Janabadi Workers Party in this camp. They are in a state of setback and are again rearranging raw jute threads to make a rope. Hence, they are, at this point of time, creeping babies in the sense of their organizational strength. Still, they could turn into a formidable force anytime soon as there are plenty of raw materials available for them to process.
The regressive forces were the regressive forces in the past too (prior to 2006). The transformational forces were the transformational forces in the past too. Among the reformist forces, the Nepali Congress and the UML were the reformist forces in the past too. Hence, there is only one entity that got changed is the Unified Maoist’s establishment platform (UMEP). All other forces except the UMEP have been travelling following their stated roadmaps. They are predictable. However, the political behaviours of the UMEP are most unpredictable. This platform swings to all directions and climbs up and down in no time without any understandable reasons. Hence, the UMEP has been instrumental in making and breaking promises, structures and functions. It is primarily responsible for what has been happening today in Nepal. Understanding this reality is no less than attaining half of the solutions of the problems the country and the people are facing.
The sudden change of the politics of the UMEP made the process of societal change gloomy and messy. The state and society have every right to ask UMEP to behave according to their newly acquired political philosophy. The transformational forces also should recognize the fact that they are fundamentally different and should take their course accordingly. When, the roles would be clear, the mess will start getting cleared. The clarification of their roles automatically clears the ways for political alliances based on their ideological affinity and class base. Gradually, the thick fog would disappear and the road ahead will be visible to drive to.
Even after a long and painful waiting period of more than four years, the Nepali people could not see rays of hope and the mile stone where the transition ends. Frustration has become the talking agenda for a large majority. The leaders are busy building the personal empire and ensuring luxury and comfort for them. The people are seeing the leaders and their notorious acts and have become speechless. They, particularly the disciplined cadres, who still cherish the dream of a new Nepal, have been slowly recovering from their own disbeliefs. The most revered leaders and most loved party headquarters have moved 360 degree in all areas encompassing ideology, politics, tactic, strategy and practice. This phenomenon is more true to the cadres and supporters of Unified Communist party of Nepal (Maoist). The change, there, is phenomenal.
Now, it is important to have a cursory look of the political developments, particularly reviewing the developments of recent past so as to have some glimpses of the future.
The 12-point agreement between the Maoist and the parliamentary parties had created new expectations. The Nepalese people were waiting to get rid of many difficulties. Although, the people’s movement of April 2006 succeeded in electing the constituent assembly and abolishing the monarchy, but the new ruling elites utterly failed in generating hope among the people. They talked loudly about the birth of a New Nepal, but that Nepal was neither moving towards peace nor stability nor prosperity.
The Maoist people’s war was naturally violent. During the war, they not only practised armed transformational course of the society, but also imparted skills on the use of weapons, build strong attitudes towards organized attempts to attain goals and generated hope among people that a shiny new day is closer to their lives. So, the expectations had been created aggressively. The failure in materializing the expectation resulted to the emergence of several armed groups.
The parliamentary parties were accustomed to lethargy, cynicism, brinkmanship and greed. They were in a state of rotten potatoes. Simply, they were involved in certain regular rituals, which could be constructed as ‘peaceful struggle’ at times of need. They lined up at the opportune moment together with the Maoists and with India and are continuously harvesting benefits.
The king was an outdated autocrat, who was not only extremely unpopular but also was a useless brat who did not know even the basics of governance. Naturally, the monarchy accumulated all negatives at one point of time and initiated its own downfall.
The anti-monarchy role India played at that particular moment was critically important. India was unhappy with the monarchy as the monarchy was considered as anti-India, historically.
Hence, the Maoists with the strength of people’s power moved ahead in collaboration with the parliamentary political parties as these parties had certain degree of legitimacy on their side. Both of them together joined hands with India to overthrow the autocratic monarchy. India also represented the western power centres. Finally, they formed a coalition to overthrow the monarchy and they succeeded to accomplish that goal.
The days after the success of the movement, brought some honeymoon between the changing Maoists and the parliamentary political parties. They formed an interim government, drafted an interim constitution, organized election for the constituent assembly, abolished monarchy legally, formed government under the Maoists’ leadership and gave some impression that things will move to right direction and a New Nepal could be there sooner. But, that did not happen. The Unified Maoists failed miserably in all fronts, which could initiate radical change in the society. Hence, the Unified Maoist-led government collapsed. The UML-led spineless governments were no different.
After a few years of the success of the mass movement, the scenario got drastically changed. There is all-round frustration. There are tensions in the society. There are clashes of interests. The contradictions between and among nationalities is one particular feature of serious concern. The constitution drafting is facing serious roadblocks and the nature of federalism is one among them.
In political front, there are three forces in full play.
The first camp is that of regressive forces. The former monarch is the de facto leader of this camp. The regressive forces are not that well organized in form but have tremendous power in substance. They are thinly spread within political parties, bureaucracy, army, police, intelligence networks, so-called civil society groups and so on. They sometimes cover themselves as nationalists, in some other occasion as anti-federalists and in some other times present them as Hindu zealots. They sound sometimes as peace preachers and sometimes as human rights defenders. So, they are omnipresent. They work on the basis of issues and try everything to create obstacles in the advancement of the society in all its attributes – values, ethics, beliefs, attitudes, progress etc. These dark forces play skilfully and create platforms where the forces of reform and the forces of transformation clash among and between themselves. These regressive forces have played vital role in maintaining the.
The second camp is composed of reformists. They are in a difficult situation as their cadre base is composed of idealist change activists and their leadership represent the interests of semi- reactionary or reactionary classes. Many among leaders who are at the helm of the political organizations in this camp are overtly foreigner’s darlings. They talk loud to pacify their cadres, to blindfold common people and to camouflage themselves. Hence, this force, which is at the centre stage of the state power, is a coalition of progressive bottom and part-regressive top. The Nepali Congress, UML and Unified Maoist Establishment Platform (UMEP) belong to this reformist camp.
The third camp is that of transformational forces. The Mohan Baidya-led Maoist platform, Matrika Yadav-led Maoists, Mani Thapa-led Maoists etc belong to this camp. There are others also such as Kirat Janabadi Workers Party in this camp. They are in a state of setback and are again rearranging raw jute threads to make a rope. Hence, they are, at this point of time, creeping babies in the sense of their organizational strength. Still, they could turn into a formidable force anytime soon as there are plenty of raw materials available for them to process.
The regressive forces were the regressive forces in the past too (prior to 2006). The transformational forces were the transformational forces in the past too. Among the reformist forces, the Nepali Congress and the UML were the reformist forces in the past too. Hence, there is only one entity that got changed is the Unified Maoist’s establishment platform (UMEP). All other forces except the UMEP have been travelling following their stated roadmaps. They are predictable. However, the political behaviours of the UMEP are most unpredictable. This platform swings to all directions and climbs up and down in no time without any understandable reasons. Hence, the UMEP has been instrumental in making and breaking promises, structures and functions. It is primarily responsible for what has been happening today in Nepal. Understanding this reality is no less than attaining half of the solutions of the problems the country and the people are facing.
The sudden change of the politics of the UMEP made the process of societal change gloomy and messy. The state and society have every right to ask UMEP to behave according to their newly acquired political philosophy. The transformational forces also should recognize the fact that they are fundamentally different and should take their course accordingly. When, the roles would be clear, the mess will start getting cleared. The clarification of their roles automatically clears the ways for political alliances based on their ideological affinity and class base. Gradually, the thick fog would disappear and the road ahead will be visible to drive to.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Tenure of the Constituent Assembly: Extension, Extension ......
Govinda Neupane
Why the Constituent Assembly (CA) again failed to complete the constitution writing process? Many people believe that due to fighting among political parties and infighting within them are the major reasons. Some others say that it is due to Unified Maoist's reluctance to detach itself from its combatants. Some fertile minds cultivate reason and tell us that there is foreign hand. Some leaders say there is conspiracy to dissolve the CA and they are creating hurdles to stall the constitution drafting process. Hence, it would be absolutely necessary to look deep why the constitution is not ready.
The major issues that had contributed to the starting of the decade long "people's war" and the people's movement of 2006 included but not limited to political freedom, economic development and social justice through inclusion and participation. To institutionalize these strategic objectives, it was agreed that a new constitutional mechanism should be designed and for that purpose the election of a CA would be the best course. Hence, the election was organized and a grand CA came into existence. The tenure of this assembly was of two years, and when the assembly failed to produce the desired result the life of the assembly was extend for another year.
After sidelining the king, the CA declared Nepal a republic. Also, it concluded that Nepal will be a federal state. However, it failed to state on what basis the federal structure will stand on - geography, economic viability, nationality/ethnicity clusters, and combination of all or something else.
Hence, inability in agreeing on the restructuring of the state by designing a system that insures social inclusion and no interest in creating an operational framework that brings into full play the rights of indigenous and/or oppressed nationalities, marginalized sections and working class people are some of the major factors that have been contributing for the failure to finalize the constitution. In such background, federalism becomes one of the issues of prime importance.
The people, particularly the indigenous people and Madhesis have been facing discrimination in areas of language, ownership, opportunities, representation and governance. They want their rights back. To ensure that their grievances are addressed appropriately and positively, they should get the opportunity to govern themselves in a very autonomous way with the right to self-determination. Unfortunately, nearly all top leaders of major political parties are high caste hill Hindu Khasa males, who have failed to feel the discriminations against and sufferings of the oppressed sections of the people. Moreover, their control over power may erode, and thus, they are most reluctant to design a federal system where power is highly decentralized. Now, they need time to dilute the aspirations of oppressed people with frustrations so as to design a system of their likings that could be a nominally federated mechanism more in line with Mahendra's zonal system or Birendra's regional system.
The other unresolved issue was the reservation or special rights for marginalized sections of the society including Dalits, indigenous peoples and Madhesis, and women. Inclusion of marginalized sections into the mainstream needs bold steps to incorporate in the constitution. The reservation for women and Dalits and reparation for the Dalits are some of the critical issues. The Khasa male mindset of the troika prevents them moving forward. At the same time, they cannot deny the needs of such provisions, and they simply prolong the life of the Constituent Assembly to buy time.
Similarly, the large working class majority has been expecting change in their conditions. This needs a constitution that overtly favors working class majority, excluded sections and oppressed nationalities/ethnicities. However, the leaders either have come from higher class back ground or have amassed wealth and have elevated to higher class. They are not in need of the change which is transformative and creates environment for radically new power relationships. If there is no new constitution, the leaders could pretend that they are with the people whilst enjoying lives of aristocrats.
Democracy is one of the most misunderstood political terms in Nepal. Nepal, as a country, was never democratic, neither it is today. The Shahas had the dictatorial rule that followed by similar rule of Ranas. When such rule finally was over in 2006, the people got a dictatorial rule of a new troika (sometimes a gang of two or sometimes only an individual lord). This troika collectively and/or an individual behind the curtain or openly have been ruling Nepal for more than four years. The brigade of 601 at Baneshwor is functioning just as the participants of a public gathering. They are there to listen and to clap. Due to the troika or the individual lord taking all decisions, the CA has been functioning as a rubber stamp. May be a large majority of the CA members feels powerless, sees their role ornamental and experiences humiliation when the people throw stones on them. Designing democratic constitution by the most undemocratic troika is an uphill task, if not impossible.
Every big leader has turned to be a liability for him. This has created fear factor within them. In the same degree, their parties also are not confident that they will be able to grab better opportunities next time as their credibility factor is too low. In any case, there will be much less number in the legislative assembly, if a constitution is finally ready. Hence, slaughtering the constitution writing process and prolonging their stay in power is in the interest of the parties of the troika.
Also, the Unified Maoists are being composted and they need time to go through the decomposition process. They have taken the familiar UML route with much better speed. However, the compost needs time to be ready to be used to make the parliamentary system greener. The westerners know this better and as experts of time, space and processes, they are advising to extend the tenure of the CA and are funding too.
Due to the reasons as mentioned above, the government has proposed to extend the tenure of the CA for one year now, and the future extensions are open.
Is there any chance that the people or parties or parliamentarians could snatch power from the troika and complete the constitution writing process?
The people are very much frustrated. Hopelessness, generally expressed as "Jun Jogi Aaye Pani Kanai Chireko" (everybody is the same), has been encrypted in their mind. May be, not because of no constitution, as it is too abstract for them, but because of anarchy, lawlessness, scarcity of essential commodities and sky rocketing prices, the people will come out boiling with rage. When the lion is out of a cage, it is really out. Similarly, when parties start becoming parties and not the fiefdoms of the patriarchs, they may revolt against. And, when the parliamentarians start feeling really as a humiliated lot - powerless and frustrated, they may start ventilating their anger that could progress to some sort of revolt. These three are the positive factors that could help bringing out a federal, inclusive, democratic and progressive constitution. The alternative is foreign instigated or locally staged coup. This will add even more darkness; however, the troika rule is heading towards that direction. Let's try to bring synergy and build collaboration among people, parties and parliamentarians to prevent further darkness and to take our country to peace, progress and prosperity.
May 13, 2010
Why the Constituent Assembly (CA) again failed to complete the constitution writing process? Many people believe that due to fighting among political parties and infighting within them are the major reasons. Some others say that it is due to Unified Maoist's reluctance to detach itself from its combatants. Some fertile minds cultivate reason and tell us that there is foreign hand. Some leaders say there is conspiracy to dissolve the CA and they are creating hurdles to stall the constitution drafting process. Hence, it would be absolutely necessary to look deep why the constitution is not ready.
The major issues that had contributed to the starting of the decade long "people's war" and the people's movement of 2006 included but not limited to political freedom, economic development and social justice through inclusion and participation. To institutionalize these strategic objectives, it was agreed that a new constitutional mechanism should be designed and for that purpose the election of a CA would be the best course. Hence, the election was organized and a grand CA came into existence. The tenure of this assembly was of two years, and when the assembly failed to produce the desired result the life of the assembly was extend for another year.
After sidelining the king, the CA declared Nepal a republic. Also, it concluded that Nepal will be a federal state. However, it failed to state on what basis the federal structure will stand on - geography, economic viability, nationality/ethnicity clusters, and combination of all or something else.
Hence, inability in agreeing on the restructuring of the state by designing a system that insures social inclusion and no interest in creating an operational framework that brings into full play the rights of indigenous and/or oppressed nationalities, marginalized sections and working class people are some of the major factors that have been contributing for the failure to finalize the constitution. In such background, federalism becomes one of the issues of prime importance.
The people, particularly the indigenous people and Madhesis have been facing discrimination in areas of language, ownership, opportunities, representation and governance. They want their rights back. To ensure that their grievances are addressed appropriately and positively, they should get the opportunity to govern themselves in a very autonomous way with the right to self-determination. Unfortunately, nearly all top leaders of major political parties are high caste hill Hindu Khasa males, who have failed to feel the discriminations against and sufferings of the oppressed sections of the people. Moreover, their control over power may erode, and thus, they are most reluctant to design a federal system where power is highly decentralized. Now, they need time to dilute the aspirations of oppressed people with frustrations so as to design a system of their likings that could be a nominally federated mechanism more in line with Mahendra's zonal system or Birendra's regional system.
The other unresolved issue was the reservation or special rights for marginalized sections of the society including Dalits, indigenous peoples and Madhesis, and women. Inclusion of marginalized sections into the mainstream needs bold steps to incorporate in the constitution. The reservation for women and Dalits and reparation for the Dalits are some of the critical issues. The Khasa male mindset of the troika prevents them moving forward. At the same time, they cannot deny the needs of such provisions, and they simply prolong the life of the Constituent Assembly to buy time.
Similarly, the large working class majority has been expecting change in their conditions. This needs a constitution that overtly favors working class majority, excluded sections and oppressed nationalities/ethnicities. However, the leaders either have come from higher class back ground or have amassed wealth and have elevated to higher class. They are not in need of the change which is transformative and creates environment for radically new power relationships. If there is no new constitution, the leaders could pretend that they are with the people whilst enjoying lives of aristocrats.
Democracy is one of the most misunderstood political terms in Nepal. Nepal, as a country, was never democratic, neither it is today. The Shahas had the dictatorial rule that followed by similar rule of Ranas. When such rule finally was over in 2006, the people got a dictatorial rule of a new troika (sometimes a gang of two or sometimes only an individual lord). This troika collectively and/or an individual behind the curtain or openly have been ruling Nepal for more than four years. The brigade of 601 at Baneshwor is functioning just as the participants of a public gathering. They are there to listen and to clap. Due to the troika or the individual lord taking all decisions, the CA has been functioning as a rubber stamp. May be a large majority of the CA members feels powerless, sees their role ornamental and experiences humiliation when the people throw stones on them. Designing democratic constitution by the most undemocratic troika is an uphill task, if not impossible.
Every big leader has turned to be a liability for him. This has created fear factor within them. In the same degree, their parties also are not confident that they will be able to grab better opportunities next time as their credibility factor is too low. In any case, there will be much less number in the legislative assembly, if a constitution is finally ready. Hence, slaughtering the constitution writing process and prolonging their stay in power is in the interest of the parties of the troika.
Also, the Unified Maoists are being composted and they need time to go through the decomposition process. They have taken the familiar UML route with much better speed. However, the compost needs time to be ready to be used to make the parliamentary system greener. The westerners know this better and as experts of time, space and processes, they are advising to extend the tenure of the CA and are funding too.
Due to the reasons as mentioned above, the government has proposed to extend the tenure of the CA for one year now, and the future extensions are open.
Is there any chance that the people or parties or parliamentarians could snatch power from the troika and complete the constitution writing process?
The people are very much frustrated. Hopelessness, generally expressed as "Jun Jogi Aaye Pani Kanai Chireko" (everybody is the same), has been encrypted in their mind. May be, not because of no constitution, as it is too abstract for them, but because of anarchy, lawlessness, scarcity of essential commodities and sky rocketing prices, the people will come out boiling with rage. When the lion is out of a cage, it is really out. Similarly, when parties start becoming parties and not the fiefdoms of the patriarchs, they may revolt against. And, when the parliamentarians start feeling really as a humiliated lot - powerless and frustrated, they may start ventilating their anger that could progress to some sort of revolt. These three are the positive factors that could help bringing out a federal, inclusive, democratic and progressive constitution. The alternative is foreign instigated or locally staged coup. This will add even more darkness; however, the troika rule is heading towards that direction. Let's try to bring synergy and build collaboration among people, parties and parliamentarians to prevent further darkness and to take our country to peace, progress and prosperity.
May 13, 2010
Monday, February 07, 2011
New Political Masters Enthroned: Hopelessness and Upheavals Continue
Govinda Neupane
The election of the prime minister has significantly polarized the political situation. The Congress has felt betrayed. A large majority of the Madhesi parties saw the play, a process that further marginalizes them. The so-called small parties have splinted vertically between left and center. The Unified Maoist party has faced near revolt as their 51 legislators expressed their disagreement on the standing committee decision that supported the CPN (UML) candidate. The UML is one in its look but when somebody goes beyond their physical being, it is the loose network of two entities clubbed together. They are in constant fight against each other. The center-right faction saw the biggest surprise of their political journey, when the Unified Maoist supported the UML candidate, who represents center-left faction of the party. The exercise conducted to elect the prime minister sounded a conspiratorial drama designed to checkmate the other side of the divide. It had everything - conspiracies, cover-ups, excitements, frustrations and many lows of political characters.
The new government will have several push and pull factors together. The most critical factors include but not limited to integration and rehabilitation of Maoist fighters, constitution writing and concluding the peace process logically. The Unified Maoists will not agree to break the chain of command of their fighting force. They will try to keep it as it is now under one or the other cover. The day when they agree to demobilize and disintegrate their armed force, they will be toothless. Hence, neither they will lose control of their PLA, nor will they change the status and modus operandi of operation of the Young Communist League nor will they return the property seized during the time of war. They consider that, now, they are free from these obligations as they are not leading the government. Therefore, at best, the new government could preserve the status quo. "Integration", "rehabilitation", "concluding peace process" and "constitution writing" are simply the phrases to use repeatedly without any operational obligations. Therefore, expecting any outcome, which could be termed substantially progressive, is just a mirage.
One of the major qualities of the new prime minister is that he is considered a weak and vulnerable leader. A government where the Unified Maoists are in majority in the cabinet, certainly they will promote their party's interests. The PM will have no other option than to abide by the Unified Maoist's decisions. The UML, minority in the cabinet, will be utilized to further the Unified Maoist plans. In outer appearance it sounds all great for the Unified Maoist leadership. The critical question is for what the Unified Maoist will utilize such opportunity? The Maoist agenda of societal transformation has been kept in the back-burner, since they became Unified Maoist. Hence, naturally, this opportunity will be utilized for some handsome gains for a galaxy of their core leaders.
The Unified Maoist leadership has clear objectives now. First, sideline or even crush the internal opposition. Second, maximize benefits of the barter they have done in the form of offering the prime minister's chair to a UML faction. Third, implement already devised strategy of getting the prime minister's chair for their chairman. And, finally get a constitution that has presidential form of government and ensure its chairman could get that position. In that day, they will integrate or rehabilitate their PLA, finish barrack system of the Young Communist League and may even return the seized property, if that would help them.
Many people have already started to speculate how long the government will survive? It depends on two critical issues - first, what will happen to constitution writing? Second, how far the prime minister could bear the load of ever increasing pressure? The sources of the pressure include the Unified Maoists, arch-opponents within and outside his party, the southern and northern neighbors and the western world.
There is no two-third majority with the governing coalition. To have the constitution finally approved, they need two-third majority. Therefore, there is a great need of give and take. However, in this environment, where the trust factor has been vanished, it is too difficult to finalize the constitution by the deadline. In that situation either the Constituent Assembly will be dissolved and election for a new assembly will be ordered or again the parties will extended the life of the existing assembly for another year. In such phenomenon, the never ending period of transition will frustrate the people more and there is most likely situation of people revolting against the ruling coalition. This will not only effectively seal the fortune of the government but also it will end the position of the Unified Maoist as powerful party. This way, the government will go by people's revolt. This is not the revolt the Unified Maoist talk often. This would be a revolt against them too. In a distant scenario, the constitution will be drafted, new election will be held and the new government will take over from this government. This is most unlikely to happen.
Now, let's see the second factors. The Unified Maoist chair is just ready to jump on the chair of the government. He will do everything to 'cordially' and 'comradely' oust the PM. Even there are people who say that the new prime minister is a stop gap official as their 'secret' seven point agreement hints that the PM's chair will revolve. In such case, the PM will simply warm the chair for the Unified Maoist chairman. Hence, the pressure from the partner could be unbearable. Equally important is the crucial role that could be played by Baburam Bhattarai camp to bring down the government. Once again, he is cheated as his political line has been implemented excluding him. The Congress and Madhesis are just restless to revenge the 'betrayal' of the UML leaders. The arch-opponents inside the prime minister's party will leave no stone unturned to dethrone him. When the Unified Maoists start prevailing over all government decisions, they will get fodder to feed their own comrades. Frustrated without getting any position of power, many UML MPs may turn against the prime minister. This could lead to the downfall of the government. The Unified Maoist at the center of power, that too, checkmating it, the famous South Block together with the mighty westerners will do everything at its disposal to dislodge the government. This "everything" includes designing splits within the governing parties, particularly within Unified Maoist and UML, convincing the President to stage a soft coup or provoking the army to militarily dethrone the government.
The new government, thus, is simply a change of guards. The guards are that of the same species but with different motivations regarding their self-interests. Their tilt is different. The previous one was tilted towards center- right and this new government has its tilt towards center-left. However, Nepal is a unique case for years. The society remains the same irrespective of the change of governing parties, ideologies or polities. This has been applicable this time too, which simply contributed to continue the existing crisis. There is just the change of custodians but hopelessness and upheavals continue. No medication has been working. Probably, our society and the governance have to go through surgical processes that include rapid transformation through genuine revolution. When the revolution with all its colors and vibrancies starts descending rapidly, the gamblers of the political casinos will be washed away and the people, individually and collectively, will celebrate the dawn of a new age.
The election of the prime minister has significantly polarized the political situation. The Congress has felt betrayed. A large majority of the Madhesi parties saw the play, a process that further marginalizes them. The so-called small parties have splinted vertically between left and center. The Unified Maoist party has faced near revolt as their 51 legislators expressed their disagreement on the standing committee decision that supported the CPN (UML) candidate. The UML is one in its look but when somebody goes beyond their physical being, it is the loose network of two entities clubbed together. They are in constant fight against each other. The center-right faction saw the biggest surprise of their political journey, when the Unified Maoist supported the UML candidate, who represents center-left faction of the party. The exercise conducted to elect the prime minister sounded a conspiratorial drama designed to checkmate the other side of the divide. It had everything - conspiracies, cover-ups, excitements, frustrations and many lows of political characters.
The new government will have several push and pull factors together. The most critical factors include but not limited to integration and rehabilitation of Maoist fighters, constitution writing and concluding the peace process logically. The Unified Maoists will not agree to break the chain of command of their fighting force. They will try to keep it as it is now under one or the other cover. The day when they agree to demobilize and disintegrate their armed force, they will be toothless. Hence, neither they will lose control of their PLA, nor will they change the status and modus operandi of operation of the Young Communist League nor will they return the property seized during the time of war. They consider that, now, they are free from these obligations as they are not leading the government. Therefore, at best, the new government could preserve the status quo. "Integration", "rehabilitation", "concluding peace process" and "constitution writing" are simply the phrases to use repeatedly without any operational obligations. Therefore, expecting any outcome, which could be termed substantially progressive, is just a mirage.
One of the major qualities of the new prime minister is that he is considered a weak and vulnerable leader. A government where the Unified Maoists are in majority in the cabinet, certainly they will promote their party's interests. The PM will have no other option than to abide by the Unified Maoist's decisions. The UML, minority in the cabinet, will be utilized to further the Unified Maoist plans. In outer appearance it sounds all great for the Unified Maoist leadership. The critical question is for what the Unified Maoist will utilize such opportunity? The Maoist agenda of societal transformation has been kept in the back-burner, since they became Unified Maoist. Hence, naturally, this opportunity will be utilized for some handsome gains for a galaxy of their core leaders.
The Unified Maoist leadership has clear objectives now. First, sideline or even crush the internal opposition. Second, maximize benefits of the barter they have done in the form of offering the prime minister's chair to a UML faction. Third, implement already devised strategy of getting the prime minister's chair for their chairman. And, finally get a constitution that has presidential form of government and ensure its chairman could get that position. In that day, they will integrate or rehabilitate their PLA, finish barrack system of the Young Communist League and may even return the seized property, if that would help them.
Many people have already started to speculate how long the government will survive? It depends on two critical issues - first, what will happen to constitution writing? Second, how far the prime minister could bear the load of ever increasing pressure? The sources of the pressure include the Unified Maoists, arch-opponents within and outside his party, the southern and northern neighbors and the western world.
There is no two-third majority with the governing coalition. To have the constitution finally approved, they need two-third majority. Therefore, there is a great need of give and take. However, in this environment, where the trust factor has been vanished, it is too difficult to finalize the constitution by the deadline. In that situation either the Constituent Assembly will be dissolved and election for a new assembly will be ordered or again the parties will extended the life of the existing assembly for another year. In such phenomenon, the never ending period of transition will frustrate the people more and there is most likely situation of people revolting against the ruling coalition. This will not only effectively seal the fortune of the government but also it will end the position of the Unified Maoist as powerful party. This way, the government will go by people's revolt. This is not the revolt the Unified Maoist talk often. This would be a revolt against them too. In a distant scenario, the constitution will be drafted, new election will be held and the new government will take over from this government. This is most unlikely to happen.
Now, let's see the second factors. The Unified Maoist chair is just ready to jump on the chair of the government. He will do everything to 'cordially' and 'comradely' oust the PM. Even there are people who say that the new prime minister is a stop gap official as their 'secret' seven point agreement hints that the PM's chair will revolve. In such case, the PM will simply warm the chair for the Unified Maoist chairman. Hence, the pressure from the partner could be unbearable. Equally important is the crucial role that could be played by Baburam Bhattarai camp to bring down the government. Once again, he is cheated as his political line has been implemented excluding him. The Congress and Madhesis are just restless to revenge the 'betrayal' of the UML leaders. The arch-opponents inside the prime minister's party will leave no stone unturned to dethrone him. When the Unified Maoists start prevailing over all government decisions, they will get fodder to feed their own comrades. Frustrated without getting any position of power, many UML MPs may turn against the prime minister. This could lead to the downfall of the government. The Unified Maoist at the center of power, that too, checkmating it, the famous South Block together with the mighty westerners will do everything at its disposal to dislodge the government. This "everything" includes designing splits within the governing parties, particularly within Unified Maoist and UML, convincing the President to stage a soft coup or provoking the army to militarily dethrone the government.
The new government, thus, is simply a change of guards. The guards are that of the same species but with different motivations regarding their self-interests. Their tilt is different. The previous one was tilted towards center- right and this new government has its tilt towards center-left. However, Nepal is a unique case for years. The society remains the same irrespective of the change of governing parties, ideologies or polities. This has been applicable this time too, which simply contributed to continue the existing crisis. There is just the change of custodians but hopelessness and upheavals continue. No medication has been working. Probably, our society and the governance have to go through surgical processes that include rapid transformation through genuine revolution. When the revolution with all its colors and vibrancies starts descending rapidly, the gamblers of the political casinos will be washed away and the people, individually and collectively, will celebrate the dawn of a new age.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Nepal: Hopelessness to Vibrancy
Govinda Neupane
(The following text is part of my reply to a friend's email. The personal references are taken out. I had sent the reply on 12 September 2010.)
More recently, collectively the Nepalese people have started feeling hopeless. The leaders, as individuals and collectives, failed to generate hope among the people. This all happened, I think, not as an accident. This sounds designed by someone skilled, interested and powerful. In our case, they are the external powers - easterners and westerners. I believe that the design was conceived around their need of disarming the Nepali Maoists so as to prevent the resurgence and spread of communism. The immidiate objective was to effectively prevent the Maoists taking over power in Nepal until they become same as the Communist Party of Nepal- UML (the center-left liberal parliamentary party that still carries the word "Communist" in its name). Aware or unaware of such design, the leaders (including the "overtly anti-India but covertly nobody knows type" Unified Maoists) sound just a part of the external powers' support mechanism in implementing their design.
In the distant past, the Ranas had resisted external designs somehow and to some extent. The Panchas followed the Rana's line. However, the parliamentary system of government, particularly, the one after 1990 movement followed pro-external power line, aggressively. Moreover, the mid-wife of the new political course, which started in 2006, as people believe and some external powers claim or agree with, is Delhi. Therefore, the external powers (not only India) remained most important, influential and dominating in today's political scenario. What we are seeing is just the dance of our leaders under the conductor's gestures. These conductors are in Washington, New York, Delhi, Beijing, London and Oslo. The roles of the ambassadors and their diktats reveal a ton.
Our socio-economic foundation is very weak and politico-educational attainment is in its infancy in regard to the formation of a critical mass. If the common men and women as the human products of such foundation behave in the same way as that of their base, it is understandable. But, when the leaders, who claim as the vanguards, behave in such fashion, it makes no sense. Hence, there is something seriously wrong in them. They may not be that bad as individuals but the environment made them subservient to its objective whole, and many among these leaders demean themselves to the lowest extent possible. As a result, even the infamous former king has started dreaming that he could revive his throne. This is a day-dream, but the new messy environment provided ground for him. I agree with you that the major parties and their leaders are responsible for this mess.
I agree that we are passing through the most difficult phase in our nation's history. The independent decision making power as a sovereign state has been compromised. The Nepali state is in crisis. The hope generating side of the Maoist movement has been evaporating. And, frustration among a large majority of people has been running high. However, as a diehard optimist, I believe that there is light on the other side of the tunnel. These leaders could be thrown out. The parties of today may disappear. There could be the need of another difficult journey. New sets of leaders may emerge. New (or radically reoriented existing) political parties may come up. This is quite certain that there would be a day full of sun-shine. You and I may or may not see that shiny day. However, the energetic, enterprising and visionary youths of today or even small children of today will bring that day, will see that day and will celebrate the birth of a shinning Nepal. As Anton Chekhov (1860–-1904) has narrated in his famous short story, "Ward No 6", we should enjoy the imagination of that pleasant day though it may arrive in distant future. After that historic break, there would be the creation of tranquility, peace and prosperity. Our motherland will be pervaded by the lovely yellowish light of the baby sun. I salute in advance to those politically, economically, socially, intellectually and culturally emancipated, enlightened and empowered citizens of that vibrant Nepal!
(The following text is part of my reply to a friend's email. The personal references are taken out. I had sent the reply on 12 September 2010.)
More recently, collectively the Nepalese people have started feeling hopeless. The leaders, as individuals and collectives, failed to generate hope among the people. This all happened, I think, not as an accident. This sounds designed by someone skilled, interested and powerful. In our case, they are the external powers - easterners and westerners. I believe that the design was conceived around their need of disarming the Nepali Maoists so as to prevent the resurgence and spread of communism. The immidiate objective was to effectively prevent the Maoists taking over power in Nepal until they become same as the Communist Party of Nepal- UML (the center-left liberal parliamentary party that still carries the word "Communist" in its name). Aware or unaware of such design, the leaders (including the "overtly anti-India but covertly nobody knows type" Unified Maoists) sound just a part of the external powers' support mechanism in implementing their design.
In the distant past, the Ranas had resisted external designs somehow and to some extent. The Panchas followed the Rana's line. However, the parliamentary system of government, particularly, the one after 1990 movement followed pro-external power line, aggressively. Moreover, the mid-wife of the new political course, which started in 2006, as people believe and some external powers claim or agree with, is Delhi. Therefore, the external powers (not only India) remained most important, influential and dominating in today's political scenario. What we are seeing is just the dance of our leaders under the conductor's gestures. These conductors are in Washington, New York, Delhi, Beijing, London and Oslo. The roles of the ambassadors and their diktats reveal a ton.
Our socio-economic foundation is very weak and politico-educational attainment is in its infancy in regard to the formation of a critical mass. If the common men and women as the human products of such foundation behave in the same way as that of their base, it is understandable. But, when the leaders, who claim as the vanguards, behave in such fashion, it makes no sense. Hence, there is something seriously wrong in them. They may not be that bad as individuals but the environment made them subservient to its objective whole, and many among these leaders demean themselves to the lowest extent possible. As a result, even the infamous former king has started dreaming that he could revive his throne. This is a day-dream, but the new messy environment provided ground for him. I agree with you that the major parties and their leaders are responsible for this mess.
I agree that we are passing through the most difficult phase in our nation's history. The independent decision making power as a sovereign state has been compromised. The Nepali state is in crisis. The hope generating side of the Maoist movement has been evaporating. And, frustration among a large majority of people has been running high. However, as a diehard optimist, I believe that there is light on the other side of the tunnel. These leaders could be thrown out. The parties of today may disappear. There could be the need of another difficult journey. New sets of leaders may emerge. New (or radically reoriented existing) political parties may come up. This is quite certain that there would be a day full of sun-shine. You and I may or may not see that shiny day. However, the energetic, enterprising and visionary youths of today or even small children of today will bring that day, will see that day and will celebrate the birth of a shinning Nepal. As Anton Chekhov (1860–-1904) has narrated in his famous short story, "Ward No 6", we should enjoy the imagination of that pleasant day though it may arrive in distant future. After that historic break, there would be the creation of tranquility, peace and prosperity. Our motherland will be pervaded by the lovely yellowish light of the baby sun. I salute in advance to those politically, economically, socially, intellectually and culturally emancipated, enlightened and empowered citizens of that vibrant Nepal!
Monday, September 06, 2010
Nepal in Crisis: Long Live Nepal!
Govinda Neupane
The political parties are repeating the same wrongful acts and activities as they did in 1950s and 1990s. They were after power and now they are again after power. They ignored people's problems and prospects completely in the past when they were at the helm of affairs; they are doing the same today. Being a participant of the parliamentary political system, the Unified Maoist party has been claiming itself as a revolutionary force. This role was played by the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) in 1990s. Lack of alignment between the form and content is what the Unified Maoist party is sick of. Similarly, the CPN (UML) is a party that represents the interests of middle class people. Still, it declares that it is the party of proletariats. The Nepali Congress, at best, is a centre-right party, but it proudly declares that it is socialist. Hence, all three parties have been suffering from ideological illusion. Their philosophical lenses are no more working. However, they pretend that their lenses are all right. Hence, the major Nepali political parties are in crisis in regard to their approaches as their practices are totally detached from the ideology they love to talk about. The other smaller parties are in the same condition or if some of them are okay, still their roles may not have much impact in the larger political amphitheater of the nation.
All the main leaders want to grab the high office of the Prime Minister. There is total irresponsibility on their part. Two of the leaders representing two major parties are contesting an election which has failed to produce result for six times in a row. The third largest party knows nothing other than hatching political conspiracies to get the highest seat of the state power. This time 'consensus' is their mantra to cover their ill intensions. They want to sit at the driver's seat whatever way it is available. The Madhesi parties, notorious for their splits and doubtful practices, are at the bidding place and the bidders are bidding for their votes. Therefore, the political circus, which is one of the worst in the history of Nepal, has been continuing. The end result of the collective political behavior of the political actors has been confined to petty interests of the political lead-actors/villains or their parties. Similar to their ideological chit-chats, the nation and the people are simply means to attain power and prosperity for them.
The social forces also are overly reactive. They are just reacting to both issues and non issues. Coming to street has become the order of the day. There are several "forced closures" of market, transport, industries and educational institutions as and when a small section wishes so. Stone throwing crowd could be seen all over Nepal. Bewildered with all sets of chaos and anarchies, the indigenous people in some areas have started to demand greater role including a nominally federated state system. The demand of Limbuvan autonomous state is an example.
The law and order situation has been deteriorating continuously. People are feeling insecure as anytime criminals could strike. Their lives and properties are in danger of all sorts of harm. The criminals have a field day. The crime graphs including the daring cases of rubbery, abduction and killings are increasing many folds. Particularly, the central Madhes is seeing such events most regularly. The people in Madhes are the worst affected lot. A Tim, Dick or Harry comes with a gun, loots a few, kills a few and disappears. They are living in a disparate situation where the forces of the state have become onlookers. The parties and the leaders, who claim to represent Madhes and Madhesi people, are busy making their fortune in Kathmandu. Moreover, the people all over Nepal have become virtually powerless and they have become pessimists. There is the other side of the coin. Therefore, there are high chances that the patience of people disappears and a situation of total anarchy pervades the country.
The youths all over Nepal got an escape route in the form of foreign employment. Skilled or unskilled, rural or urban, male or female and healthy or not so much aspire for going out, particularly in Gulf countries, Malaysia, South Korea , Japan, USA, UK and Australia. This large scale migration of labor has been helping the national economy breathing as remittance income is 22% of annual GDP of Nepal. However, in the absence of youths and their vigor, vision and spirit, the societal as well as political changes have suffered.
The gap between the rich and poor has been widening. The recent Oxford report says that there is a large majority of people under poverty line (Multidimensional Poverty Index Poor 64.7%). The national wealth is mostly under the control of a few super rich families. The economic contradiction has been fierce. The strikes in industries, though ignited by political aspirants have reflected the workers' desire for a better life.
At macroeconomic level, the situation is fast approaching to full-fledged characteristics of a failed state. The legislature is unable to pass the annual budget as there is constant fight among the major political parties in the parliament. The Balance of Payment is quite negative. The foreign currency reserve has been decreasing. Trade deficit is alarmingly high. The growth rate of economy is nominal. Nobody knows exactly what the rate of unemployment/underemployment is. No new macro development projects, which could add wealth to national economy and provide infrastructural foundation, were implemented during the last several years. Prices of essential commodities are skyrocketing. Corruption, nepotism, favoritism, malpractices and black-marketing have become regular features.
On the nationalism front, Nepal has been in the weakest position after the war against the British colonizer (1814-1816). This fact also has been rightly pointed out by Pashupati Sumsher Rana and Baburam Bhattarai in their television appearances. They were unanimous comparing today's situation with that of aforementioned period. When Nepalese are so much divided, it is only natural that the foreign powers start meddling. Not only big countries like USA or big neighbors like India or China, but also small European countries like Norway try to diktat. The resources they provide and their nationals who are international professionals and hold high offices in Nepal are the instruments of their meddling. Together, India, European Union, USA and United Nations are over stepping on Nepali sovereign rights in an unprecedented manner. These over stepping, meddling and interferences have contributed immensely to make Nepal a strong candidate for failed state. Now, survival as a nation and as a people has become the first and foremost concern for us.
The situation is too gloomy. The nation is too fragile. The people are too weak. This mess is what the 'big' political leaders and their party apparatus have created. Their lust for power, money and luxury is the main cause of this sorry state. The problem is that we do not have any strong and organized progressive political force to snatch the initiative and start doing something to generate synergy for a rapid political change. Hence, Nepal is virtually at the stage of either power take-over by the regressive forces or fragmentation of its territory to deferent nationality/ethnic units or losing its sovereign national status. Alternatively, the process could be reversed if nationalists (do not equate to royalist), leftists and democrats within all major parties rebel against their Headquarters. If the rebels could take control of their parties or form separate parties and create a united front with other like minded parties, they could keep Nepal united. This endeavor offers hope to people, creates positive environment to reverse the fate of being failed state and opens up new horizon to move forward.
Now in Nepal, there is possibility of two types of coup d'états. The first is regressive coup d'état, which could be staged by the army. The other is progressive coup d'état, which could be staged by nationalist progressive democrats, who are functioning as second layer leaders or cadres within the major parties. They could stage the political and organizational coup d'état against their own party Headquarters. If this happens, people could see the ray of hope. The third option is disintegration of Nepal into several smaller nationality/ethnic units. If this option gets acceleration, there would be bloodshed of unprecedented nature and scale. The solution is not several smaller nationality/ethnic units, but a nationality/ethnicity based cooperative federal system. The fourth option is Nepal being a protectorate either ruled by western powers through a United Nations mechanism or directly by India. Hence, the situation is grave.
We have not many choices available. Therefore, all who love Nepal should be alert, active and organized to challenge the Bhasmashurs (the notorious destroyers). Defeating or sidelining them, at least, makes space available to initiate the process of societal transformation and national renewal. Therefore, all patriotic, progressive and democratic Nepali political and social activists should contribute most meaningfully to make sure that our beloved motherland overcomes weaknesses, acquires strengths and starts shining. Strategically, only "people power" movements could realize this goal. The "People power" movements could include but not limited to mass information initiatives, political awareness campaigns, cultural programs, diplomatic lobbying, literary works, pro-Nepal internet information endeavors/campaign/networking, dissemination of well-researched facts/truths and direct actions including demonstrations. Let us create the sound of thousands of Vuvuzela aiming to energize the grassroots and encourage the pro-people, pro-Nepal activists. A person or a group or a mass of large number of people, individually or collectively, could contribute in these "People Power" movements. Hence, wherever we are, this is our duty to organize or participate in these movements and contribute positively whichever way we could. Long Live Nepal!
September 05, 2010
The political parties are repeating the same wrongful acts and activities as they did in 1950s and 1990s. They were after power and now they are again after power. They ignored people's problems and prospects completely in the past when they were at the helm of affairs; they are doing the same today. Being a participant of the parliamentary political system, the Unified Maoist party has been claiming itself as a revolutionary force. This role was played by the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) in 1990s. Lack of alignment between the form and content is what the Unified Maoist party is sick of. Similarly, the CPN (UML) is a party that represents the interests of middle class people. Still, it declares that it is the party of proletariats. The Nepali Congress, at best, is a centre-right party, but it proudly declares that it is socialist. Hence, all three parties have been suffering from ideological illusion. Their philosophical lenses are no more working. However, they pretend that their lenses are all right. Hence, the major Nepali political parties are in crisis in regard to their approaches as their practices are totally detached from the ideology they love to talk about. The other smaller parties are in the same condition or if some of them are okay, still their roles may not have much impact in the larger political amphitheater of the nation.
All the main leaders want to grab the high office of the Prime Minister. There is total irresponsibility on their part. Two of the leaders representing two major parties are contesting an election which has failed to produce result for six times in a row. The third largest party knows nothing other than hatching political conspiracies to get the highest seat of the state power. This time 'consensus' is their mantra to cover their ill intensions. They want to sit at the driver's seat whatever way it is available. The Madhesi parties, notorious for their splits and doubtful practices, are at the bidding place and the bidders are bidding for their votes. Therefore, the political circus, which is one of the worst in the history of Nepal, has been continuing. The end result of the collective political behavior of the political actors has been confined to petty interests of the political lead-actors/villains or their parties. Similar to their ideological chit-chats, the nation and the people are simply means to attain power and prosperity for them.
The social forces also are overly reactive. They are just reacting to both issues and non issues. Coming to street has become the order of the day. There are several "forced closures" of market, transport, industries and educational institutions as and when a small section wishes so. Stone throwing crowd could be seen all over Nepal. Bewildered with all sets of chaos and anarchies, the indigenous people in some areas have started to demand greater role including a nominally federated state system. The demand of Limbuvan autonomous state is an example.
The law and order situation has been deteriorating continuously. People are feeling insecure as anytime criminals could strike. Their lives and properties are in danger of all sorts of harm. The criminals have a field day. The crime graphs including the daring cases of rubbery, abduction and killings are increasing many folds. Particularly, the central Madhes is seeing such events most regularly. The people in Madhes are the worst affected lot. A Tim, Dick or Harry comes with a gun, loots a few, kills a few and disappears. They are living in a disparate situation where the forces of the state have become onlookers. The parties and the leaders, who claim to represent Madhes and Madhesi people, are busy making their fortune in Kathmandu. Moreover, the people all over Nepal have become virtually powerless and they have become pessimists. There is the other side of the coin. Therefore, there are high chances that the patience of people disappears and a situation of total anarchy pervades the country.
The youths all over Nepal got an escape route in the form of foreign employment. Skilled or unskilled, rural or urban, male or female and healthy or not so much aspire for going out, particularly in Gulf countries, Malaysia, South Korea , Japan, USA, UK and Australia. This large scale migration of labor has been helping the national economy breathing as remittance income is 22% of annual GDP of Nepal. However, in the absence of youths and their vigor, vision and spirit, the societal as well as political changes have suffered.
The gap between the rich and poor has been widening. The recent Oxford report says that there is a large majority of people under poverty line (Multidimensional Poverty Index Poor 64.7%). The national wealth is mostly under the control of a few super rich families. The economic contradiction has been fierce. The strikes in industries, though ignited by political aspirants have reflected the workers' desire for a better life.
At macroeconomic level, the situation is fast approaching to full-fledged characteristics of a failed state. The legislature is unable to pass the annual budget as there is constant fight among the major political parties in the parliament. The Balance of Payment is quite negative. The foreign currency reserve has been decreasing. Trade deficit is alarmingly high. The growth rate of economy is nominal. Nobody knows exactly what the rate of unemployment/underemployment is. No new macro development projects, which could add wealth to national economy and provide infrastructural foundation, were implemented during the last several years. Prices of essential commodities are skyrocketing. Corruption, nepotism, favoritism, malpractices and black-marketing have become regular features.
On the nationalism front, Nepal has been in the weakest position after the war against the British colonizer (1814-1816). This fact also has been rightly pointed out by Pashupati Sumsher Rana and Baburam Bhattarai in their television appearances. They were unanimous comparing today's situation with that of aforementioned period. When Nepalese are so much divided, it is only natural that the foreign powers start meddling. Not only big countries like USA or big neighbors like India or China, but also small European countries like Norway try to diktat. The resources they provide and their nationals who are international professionals and hold high offices in Nepal are the instruments of their meddling. Together, India, European Union, USA and United Nations are over stepping on Nepali sovereign rights in an unprecedented manner. These over stepping, meddling and interferences have contributed immensely to make Nepal a strong candidate for failed state. Now, survival as a nation and as a people has become the first and foremost concern for us.
The situation is too gloomy. The nation is too fragile. The people are too weak. This mess is what the 'big' political leaders and their party apparatus have created. Their lust for power, money and luxury is the main cause of this sorry state. The problem is that we do not have any strong and organized progressive political force to snatch the initiative and start doing something to generate synergy for a rapid political change. Hence, Nepal is virtually at the stage of either power take-over by the regressive forces or fragmentation of its territory to deferent nationality/ethnic units or losing its sovereign national status. Alternatively, the process could be reversed if nationalists (do not equate to royalist), leftists and democrats within all major parties rebel against their Headquarters. If the rebels could take control of their parties or form separate parties and create a united front with other like minded parties, they could keep Nepal united. This endeavor offers hope to people, creates positive environment to reverse the fate of being failed state and opens up new horizon to move forward.
Now in Nepal, there is possibility of two types of coup d'états. The first is regressive coup d'état, which could be staged by the army. The other is progressive coup d'état, which could be staged by nationalist progressive democrats, who are functioning as second layer leaders or cadres within the major parties. They could stage the political and organizational coup d'état against their own party Headquarters. If this happens, people could see the ray of hope. The third option is disintegration of Nepal into several smaller nationality/ethnic units. If this option gets acceleration, there would be bloodshed of unprecedented nature and scale. The solution is not several smaller nationality/ethnic units, but a nationality/ethnicity based cooperative federal system. The fourth option is Nepal being a protectorate either ruled by western powers through a United Nations mechanism or directly by India. Hence, the situation is grave.
We have not many choices available. Therefore, all who love Nepal should be alert, active and organized to challenge the Bhasmashurs (the notorious destroyers). Defeating or sidelining them, at least, makes space available to initiate the process of societal transformation and national renewal. Therefore, all patriotic, progressive and democratic Nepali political and social activists should contribute most meaningfully to make sure that our beloved motherland overcomes weaknesses, acquires strengths and starts shining. Strategically, only "people power" movements could realize this goal. The "People power" movements could include but not limited to mass information initiatives, political awareness campaigns, cultural programs, diplomatic lobbying, literary works, pro-Nepal internet information endeavors/campaign/networking, dissemination of well-researched facts/truths and direct actions including demonstrations. Let us create the sound of thousands of Vuvuzela aiming to energize the grassroots and encourage the pro-people, pro-Nepal activists. A person or a group or a mass of large number of people, individually or collectively, could contribute in these "People Power" movements. Hence, wherever we are, this is our duty to organize or participate in these movements and contribute positively whichever way we could. Long Live Nepal!
September 05, 2010
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Hindsight on the Unified Maoists' "Indefinite" General Strike
- Govinda Neupane
1. Kathmandu was over flooded with red flags on May Day. The procession was one of the largest processions that Nepal ever had seen. The busses, trucks, vans, etc ferried people from neighboring districts. The number of people coming from outside valley was estimated around 150,000. The lowest estimate of the number of participants in the mass meeting, as usual, was that of the Valley Police and the highest was that of the organizers, the Unified Maoists. The police estimated their number around 200,000 and the Unified Maoists said their number was more than 600,000. Anyway, their number was quite large. The crowd was jubilant. They were adding energy by singing and dancing. Among the participants, the Young Communist League (YCL) volunteers were the most visible lot. The participants included a large number of women and teenagers. In brief, the participants of the procession were joyous, enthusiastic and energetic and the procession was colorful and exciting. The same scenes were replicated in several urban centers all over Nepal. The Unified Maoist leaders made politico-sentimental speeches that enhanced jubilation, inserted heroism and replanted 'do or die' attitude. In the same venue, they declared nationwide indefinite general strike from 2nd May. The key demands included overthrowing the incumbent coalition government and establishing a new national consensus government so as to ensure stable peace and constitution writing. The party quite frankly said, "You must come to Kathmandu with shroud cloth wrapped around your heads and flour in your bags. It will be our last battle. If we succeed, we survive; else it will be the end of our party." (Unified Maoist General Secretary Badal in www.southasiarev.wordpress.com.) Thus, a "third people's movement" was unfolded.
2. The "third people's movement" was not spontaneous, it was planned meticulously. The Unified Maoist leaders were busy preparing the foundation publicly by communicating massages about "people's revolt", "overthrowing puppet government", "salvaging the peace process", "ensuring pro-people constitution writing" and "formation of the national consensus government under the Unified Maoist leadership", etc. Internally, the party and its sister organizations assessed their strengths and prepared plans to enroll their cadres and sympathizers to take them to urban centers. Similarly, to adopt Gandhian protest technology, which centers on nonviolence, they motivated the prospective volunteers and participants in 'peaceful' protest techniques and behaviors. Prior to the agitation, they also provided refresher trainings on martial arts and armed self-defense techniques to volunteers. The open demonstrations of such exercises in several parts of the cities and towns indirectly created fear among the neutral city dwellers. This made them subdued in expressing their opposition during the initial days of protest. Probably, the open demonstrations were organized keeping this as one of the objectives. The timing of the protest was quite appropriately chosen as it was dry season, the Constituent Assembly was in a stage of coma, the government was highly unpopular, frustration was at its climax among the people, the Nepali Congress was nearly headless, the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) was at the verge of division due to bitter internal quarrels and the United Nations Mission in Nepal(UNMIN) and the Nepal office of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) were overtly favoring the Unified Maoists. Hence, the timing was excellent. The occasion of the May Day to declare the protest movement and implementation of the same, from the very next day was quite appropriate.
3. The Unified Maoist leaders are skilled in unfurling surprises. They have a large store of several types of surprises, and this time it was their love to nonviolence. They proudly declared the borderline of ethics for the protesters and that was no act of violence. During the initial three days, the protestors adhered to this behavioral arrangement, though it was new to the Maoist cadres and sympathizers. The leaders were busy selling this surprise. They were repeatedly mentioning that their protest remained peaceful - no tire burning, no stone throwing, no fight etc. They did not break any iron bars erected for partitioning footpath and road, nor did they smash the window glasses of the government and private buildings except a few. They did burn or destroy a few two-wheelers and four-wheelers. They also did not vandalize that many shops. The agitation of this size could have devastating effects, if judged by previous events and experiences. Interestingly, the participants were singing and dancing as if the protest was a festival and they were happily celebrating it.
4. The people from the rural areas were taken to unfamiliar places. They had to stay in strange arrangements, something like staying in a barrack system. They had to survive in an unhygienic street/city environment. Moreover, they did not see anything that is directly relevant to their lives. The strike was neither a general popular movement nor any extraordinary initiative that could be called revolt. Hence, bewilderment among the participants was quite normal. They did not get meaningful support from the local people. Most probably, the Unified Maoist leadership overestimated their strength in the urban areas particularly in the Kathmandu valley. Contrary to their expectation, the neutral local people, by and large, see the protest movement as another invasion after what Prithvinarayan Shah did two hundred forty two years ago. Already, the donation drive had antagonized many middle class people. Many among the neutral people in Kathmandu were suspicious in the beginning, started to feel fear after two-three days and perceived as some sort of threat to their very survival after fourth day. The same happened to others cities. When the forced closure prolonged, it affected the working class people. They became the primary victims. In this opportune moment, the Hindu ultras attacked and vandalized agitators' base in Birgunj. Also, local people clashed against them in Satungal in Kathmandu and other places including Budhanilakantha, Kapan, Jorpati, Patan, etc. There were serious confrontations in Dhankuta, Parbat, Pokhara, Rajbiraj and other places. The militant YCL cadres saw several acts of disobedience from many sections including from their own supporters. The situation got worse after the beating of construction wage workers in Pokhara and beating of a woman at Ratnapark in suspicion of adding pesticide in drinking water. These beatings revealed intolerance on the part of YCL. Intolerance gave opportunity to their opponents to demonize them and it clicked to some extent. The neutral mass started to polarize against them, particularly after the YCL cadres confronted against the prospective participants of the Basantapur mass meeting and their peace rally. Moreover, the Unified Maoist leadership underestimated the ability of the government to resist. It sounded that the leadership had an agitation wish, "We will put a few hundred thousands people on the street. The people will sing and dance. Under the pressure of singing and dancing, the puppet government will run to Delhi vacating the seat of power in Kathmandu. Chairman Prachanda or some other comrade will jump to the prime ministerial chair. The movement will succeed and the people will go home back thrilled with joy".
Moreover, during the initial days of the strike, there was absence of consistent position in regard to talks and protest. This inconsistency created lots of confusion. Similarly, the leadership did not foresee the possibility of infiltration by vigilantes and could not stop them from infiltration. Baring a few beatings, the vigilantes succeeded in carrying out their tasks. Also, the leadership failed to mobilize support of independent progressive individuals and groups.
Finally the leadership woke up and called the strike off. As the direct result of this tactical defeat, the political brand value of the Unified Maoist decreased, substantially. They are seen now not as a roaring lion that had been in its natural habitat, but as one domesticated. Their writ may not run as in the past as their strength got exposed. The Unified Maoist leadership has been seen visibly tired. The cadres, particularly the youth are angry. The party lost a large sympathizer base, particularly in urban centers. The talk of the town is that the Unified Maoist is not invincible. This perception has challenged the psyche of the previously unchallengeable Unified Maoist youth cadres. Now, there is a danger that the Maoist youth cadres will go back to their home bases in the rural areas and may act against local Congress and UML cadres. It should not be surprising if several Congress and UML cadres will run out of their villages or they will retaliate. Hence, the after-effects may give rise to more acts of violent confrontation.
5. Even after its tactical defeat, the Unified Maoist is still the largest cadre based party that could mobilize largest number of masses. They are down but not out. They have tested bitter pills. May be, that would cure some of their illnesses - over nurturing of personal ambitions, tall talking, fantasies and romanticism. Who knows, they may fight back as a wounded lion. In any case, this tactical defeat may not take them to oblivion. But, this defeat may crystallize the differences inside the Unified Maoists. There are already two platforms. The socialist platform could overtly UMLise itself and the Maoist revolutionary platform could reemerge as a vanguard, once again. Alternatively, the socialists' and Maoists' cohabitation within the Unified Maoist party will continue but with intensified two-line struggle in ideological and political fronts.
May 10, 2010
1. Kathmandu was over flooded with red flags on May Day. The procession was one of the largest processions that Nepal ever had seen. The busses, trucks, vans, etc ferried people from neighboring districts. The number of people coming from outside valley was estimated around 150,000. The lowest estimate of the number of participants in the mass meeting, as usual, was that of the Valley Police and the highest was that of the organizers, the Unified Maoists. The police estimated their number around 200,000 and the Unified Maoists said their number was more than 600,000. Anyway, their number was quite large. The crowd was jubilant. They were adding energy by singing and dancing. Among the participants, the Young Communist League (YCL) volunteers were the most visible lot. The participants included a large number of women and teenagers. In brief, the participants of the procession were joyous, enthusiastic and energetic and the procession was colorful and exciting. The same scenes were replicated in several urban centers all over Nepal. The Unified Maoist leaders made politico-sentimental speeches that enhanced jubilation, inserted heroism and replanted 'do or die' attitude. In the same venue, they declared nationwide indefinite general strike from 2nd May. The key demands included overthrowing the incumbent coalition government and establishing a new national consensus government so as to ensure stable peace and constitution writing. The party quite frankly said, "You must come to Kathmandu with shroud cloth wrapped around your heads and flour in your bags. It will be our last battle. If we succeed, we survive; else it will be the end of our party." (Unified Maoist General Secretary Badal in www.southasiarev.wordpress.com.) Thus, a "third people's movement" was unfolded.
2. The "third people's movement" was not spontaneous, it was planned meticulously. The Unified Maoist leaders were busy preparing the foundation publicly by communicating massages about "people's revolt", "overthrowing puppet government", "salvaging the peace process", "ensuring pro-people constitution writing" and "formation of the national consensus government under the Unified Maoist leadership", etc. Internally, the party and its sister organizations assessed their strengths and prepared plans to enroll their cadres and sympathizers to take them to urban centers. Similarly, to adopt Gandhian protest technology, which centers on nonviolence, they motivated the prospective volunteers and participants in 'peaceful' protest techniques and behaviors. Prior to the agitation, they also provided refresher trainings on martial arts and armed self-defense techniques to volunteers. The open demonstrations of such exercises in several parts of the cities and towns indirectly created fear among the neutral city dwellers. This made them subdued in expressing their opposition during the initial days of protest. Probably, the open demonstrations were organized keeping this as one of the objectives. The timing of the protest was quite appropriately chosen as it was dry season, the Constituent Assembly was in a stage of coma, the government was highly unpopular, frustration was at its climax among the people, the Nepali Congress was nearly headless, the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) was at the verge of division due to bitter internal quarrels and the United Nations Mission in Nepal(UNMIN) and the Nepal office of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) were overtly favoring the Unified Maoists. Hence, the timing was excellent. The occasion of the May Day to declare the protest movement and implementation of the same, from the very next day was quite appropriate.
3. The Unified Maoist leaders are skilled in unfurling surprises. They have a large store of several types of surprises, and this time it was their love to nonviolence. They proudly declared the borderline of ethics for the protesters and that was no act of violence. During the initial three days, the protestors adhered to this behavioral arrangement, though it was new to the Maoist cadres and sympathizers. The leaders were busy selling this surprise. They were repeatedly mentioning that their protest remained peaceful - no tire burning, no stone throwing, no fight etc. They did not break any iron bars erected for partitioning footpath and road, nor did they smash the window glasses of the government and private buildings except a few. They did burn or destroy a few two-wheelers and four-wheelers. They also did not vandalize that many shops. The agitation of this size could have devastating effects, if judged by previous events and experiences. Interestingly, the participants were singing and dancing as if the protest was a festival and they were happily celebrating it.
4. The people from the rural areas were taken to unfamiliar places. They had to stay in strange arrangements, something like staying in a barrack system. They had to survive in an unhygienic street/city environment. Moreover, they did not see anything that is directly relevant to their lives. The strike was neither a general popular movement nor any extraordinary initiative that could be called revolt. Hence, bewilderment among the participants was quite normal. They did not get meaningful support from the local people. Most probably, the Unified Maoist leadership overestimated their strength in the urban areas particularly in the Kathmandu valley. Contrary to their expectation, the neutral local people, by and large, see the protest movement as another invasion after what Prithvinarayan Shah did two hundred forty two years ago. Already, the donation drive had antagonized many middle class people. Many among the neutral people in Kathmandu were suspicious in the beginning, started to feel fear after two-three days and perceived as some sort of threat to their very survival after fourth day. The same happened to others cities. When the forced closure prolonged, it affected the working class people. They became the primary victims. In this opportune moment, the Hindu ultras attacked and vandalized agitators' base in Birgunj. Also, local people clashed against them in Satungal in Kathmandu and other places including Budhanilakantha, Kapan, Jorpati, Patan, etc. There were serious confrontations in Dhankuta, Parbat, Pokhara, Rajbiraj and other places. The militant YCL cadres saw several acts of disobedience from many sections including from their own supporters. The situation got worse after the beating of construction wage workers in Pokhara and beating of a woman at Ratnapark in suspicion of adding pesticide in drinking water. These beatings revealed intolerance on the part of YCL. Intolerance gave opportunity to their opponents to demonize them and it clicked to some extent. The neutral mass started to polarize against them, particularly after the YCL cadres confronted against the prospective participants of the Basantapur mass meeting and their peace rally. Moreover, the Unified Maoist leadership underestimated the ability of the government to resist. It sounded that the leadership had an agitation wish, "We will put a few hundred thousands people on the street. The people will sing and dance. Under the pressure of singing and dancing, the puppet government will run to Delhi vacating the seat of power in Kathmandu. Chairman Prachanda or some other comrade will jump to the prime ministerial chair. The movement will succeed and the people will go home back thrilled with joy".
Moreover, during the initial days of the strike, there was absence of consistent position in regard to talks and protest. This inconsistency created lots of confusion. Similarly, the leadership did not foresee the possibility of infiltration by vigilantes and could not stop them from infiltration. Baring a few beatings, the vigilantes succeeded in carrying out their tasks. Also, the leadership failed to mobilize support of independent progressive individuals and groups.
Finally the leadership woke up and called the strike off. As the direct result of this tactical defeat, the political brand value of the Unified Maoist decreased, substantially. They are seen now not as a roaring lion that had been in its natural habitat, but as one domesticated. Their writ may not run as in the past as their strength got exposed. The Unified Maoist leadership has been seen visibly tired. The cadres, particularly the youth are angry. The party lost a large sympathizer base, particularly in urban centers. The talk of the town is that the Unified Maoist is not invincible. This perception has challenged the psyche of the previously unchallengeable Unified Maoist youth cadres. Now, there is a danger that the Maoist youth cadres will go back to their home bases in the rural areas and may act against local Congress and UML cadres. It should not be surprising if several Congress and UML cadres will run out of their villages or they will retaliate. Hence, the after-effects may give rise to more acts of violent confrontation.
5. Even after its tactical defeat, the Unified Maoist is still the largest cadre based party that could mobilize largest number of masses. They are down but not out. They have tested bitter pills. May be, that would cure some of their illnesses - over nurturing of personal ambitions, tall talking, fantasies and romanticism. Who knows, they may fight back as a wounded lion. In any case, this tactical defeat may not take them to oblivion. But, this defeat may crystallize the differences inside the Unified Maoists. There are already two platforms. The socialist platform could overtly UMLise itself and the Maoist revolutionary platform could reemerge as a vanguard, once again. Alternatively, the socialists' and Maoists' cohabitation within the Unified Maoist party will continue but with intensified two-line struggle in ideological and political fronts.
May 10, 2010
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