Nepal in Transition: Short Euphoria, Long Journey

- Govinda Neupane

Formation of the new Unified Maoist-led government has created hype among intelligentsia in Kathmandu. A large majority of them dislikes Unified Maoist but likes Prime Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai. It is strange but true. Dr. Bhattarai has been considered a genius for a long time. The support available for him is primarily based on his background, particularly his academic records and his tax collection ability during his tenure as Finance Minister. After being the Prime Minister, he has taken some steps, though cosmetic in nature but quite popular among the intelligentsia. These steps include the Mustang Jeep, lunch at Sigh Durbar cafeteria, announcement of a few relief measures etc. Individuals could play important roles. However, an individual could not transform a society. The politics they represent makes the difference. Hence, leaving him alone here, I like to explore probable course of Nepali politics.

The Unified Maoist got the opportunity to lead the government, second time. The first Unified Maoist-led government is known for selling dreams of all-round transformation and buying political compost to nurture parliamentary sapling inside the party. Prachanda's government never seriously concentrated in any real issues, rather he was spreading everywhere. He sounded a man in hurry.. During that time, his control over the party was intact as he was still the superhero of the revolution. Gradually, he demystified himself. His party also contributed to demystify him. The Unified Maoist party tried to look communist to its base and democratic to its new found galaxy. The new galaxy of parliamentary fame incorporated it with some serious pre-conditions. The pre-conditions included that the Unified Maoist had to renounce violence, disband their fighting force, which they call PLA, revert to old societal structure in economic relationships by surrendering the land they seized during insurgency, and finally accept pluralism in all sphere of socio-political values, systems and practices. Gradually, the party opened its doors to individuals, groups and smaller parties to get a majority to meet the conditions put forward by the great galaxy of parliamentary fame. The leadership used two types of fodders to feed its cadres and supporting grassroots on one side of the divide and to convince its new national and international friends on the other side. The first was a basket of anti-India rhetoric and strikes, including the suicidal 'indefinite general strike' and several industrial closures. It helped the party to maintain the revolutionary posture. The second was accepting "made in India" political course more indirectly and attending to meet the pre-conditions as mentioned above. The first course helped to soften, deform and disband the hard core revolutionaries gradually and the second course broadened the acceptance among new national and international friends like Nepali Congress, Unified Marxist-Leninist, India, Europe and America.

Now, inside the Unified Maoist party, the line struggle has centered on demobilization of the PLA either through integration with Nepal army or by rehabilitating them in the society. The leaders are fighting, the cadres are joining them and the public at large are watching the fight with bewilderment and skepticism. The side the Unified Maoist camel will sit is already clear. The majority will go for demobilization as this is a major condition put forward by the parliamentary forces together with India, America and Europe to fully submerge itself into the democratic world. The course of minority led by Kiran-Badal combine is not clear. The minority leadership has not made public any specific tactical or strategic line till date. Anyway, the new government formed over a sandy foundation may continue till it implements "made in India" political course.

The old parliamentary political parties will sit in opposition and utilize any available opportunity to create more pressure on their new Unified Maoist friends to meet the conditions as soon as possible. They also will continue to harvest financial benefits and other opportunities as far as possible. Happy India could use its new found financial muscle to accomplish the task of PLA demobilization by supporting to offer an attractive package or also may provide finances to fund infrastructure projects, though in a cosmetic way. We could even see the development that followed the merger of Sikkim with India. The western countries may throw their hats on the ring. Scandinavian countries, particularly Norway may provide finances as it could project Nepal as its success story in its peace initiatives. It may compensate its failure in Sri Lanka. The Americans, though they are in difficulty in managing bread for themselves, may throw a few million dollars by printing money as they always do as one of the most undisciplined nation in the world. Hence, we could have a euphoric environment exactly similar to the post-1990 days. During that time, we were waiting for a giant Russian cargo plane that could bring Singapore to Nepal. The Prime Minister of that time had promised to make Nepal Singapore in no time. That did not happen that time, nor will this happen this time.

More than 1400 people sacrificed their lives either in establishing a new order or protecting the existing socio-political order. However, what we achieved?

The grassroots is more aware of their conditions, prospects and the hostilities that surround them. The social hierarchy has started to crumble down. The social power structure in the society has got changed drastically. The mouths are open. The spirit has been reinvented. The sense of power has empowered the previously marginalized and economically oppressed. The women are not only dreaming equality but also demanding to bring it into practice. The oppressed nationalities have come forward and are asking for greater access to opportunities and are striving hard for establishing their shining identities in a federal Nepal. The monarchy is gone. These are remarkable achievements. However, when we compare our achievements with that of other nations, sadness governs our thought processes. Poverty, illiteracy, ill health, oppression, marginalization etc continue to challenge our conscience.

A large percentage of people are still surviving under extreme poverty. The progress what we have attained has been grabbed by a tiny minority mostly composed of the upper middle class and urban elites. Inequalities exist in their extreme. Hence, the society has changed in incremental term, but is the same in structural term. The structures of the old society have started to crumble. However, they are very much dominant even today. Hence, there is the need of transformational ideals, actions and arrangements.

But, how the process moves ahead that addresses the need after such a major setback? The Maoist (not Unified Maoist) left the course at the middle of the journey. Yes, there is scarcity but it is still not a situation of disastrous famine. Be they minority inside the Unified Maoist or some new entities to take the lead; the endeavors that once the Maoist initiated, championed and developed would continue.

The euphoria originated due to the formation of new Unified Maoist-led government will be over sooner than later. The new endeavors will take shape and different organized forces would emerge. The new heroes will appear. And, the class confrontation will continue till a fundamentally different society comes into existence and a new progressive state power is established. The oppressed nationalities will continue their struggle to meeting their aspirations that will help them getting greater access and shinning identity. The Dalits will never sit idle till their emancipation is attained. The people have no option other than to continue their forward march. We took rest for about five years; it is time to start a long journey, once again.