Second Constituent Assembly Election and Probable Course Thereafter

-         Govinda Neupane 

After some months of the demise of the first Constituent Assembly (CA), politics took a back stage in governance and bureaucracy took control. Forces behind the scene played major roles in this transition. Ultimately, they decided to hold second CA poll in November 19, 2013. 

When the date was finally declared, some political forces came out against the process and the decision as that process and decision excluded them. A few cosmetics here and there did not satisfy the opposing parties and they started to protest vehemently. The vertical division started to get widened. 

Foreign forces led by India stood firmly behind the 4-party syndicate and the government they had given birth to. India sounded resolute after its assessments that the United Progressive Alliance government led by Indian Congress has nothing to project as success in foreign relations front particularly in the case of its neighbors. Moreover, its future prospects of coming back to power seem not bright. Hence, to show the outside world that it contributed to bring stability in Nepal by supporting to organize CA election and also to bring its friends and collaborators in government in Nepal; India took stand in favor of the election of the CA.

The Europeans have no education in democracy in the Third World countries. They are somehow illiterate in this regard. They have just two indicators of democracy – western orientation of the politics and election. In Nepal, both factors satisfy them and they jumped in the bandwagon of election.  Civil rights, human rights, inclusiveness, participation etc are the external teeth of an elephant.

The Americans are not that mush interested as they have already outsourced Nepal policy to India. As long as their interest in Tibet is served and real Maoist forces are in check, they will continue this policy of outsourcing.

Anyway, the conductor of Nepali CA election orchestra, India made every support available including light helicopters, combat equipments, weaponry and other non-military logistics. The Nepali army was made battle ready. Finally, with support from the western powers, several non-government entities mushroomed to educate voters, to advance the cause of our marginalized section of society and to make Nepal heaven with the magic stick of the CA election. Money flooded in, information flooded out. The capital city of Kathmandu and other major cities and towns were also flooded with ISO- certifying company called in this regard called as election observers including former US President Jimmy Carter of Carter Center. Nepal got attention of and resources mostly from India, the West and the US. 

Today, in 19 November 2013, the voting started. 

Now, let's see the other side of the coin. The opponents of the election started to stages protests in the form of mass meetings, rallies and demonstrations in several parts of the country at the time of taking decision for CA election. Their demands were brought down into two – solution through all party conference and change of the election government. The Nepali faces of the ruling syndicate were somehow seen sympathetic, at least for public consumption purpose to organize the all party conference, but the India-led foreign coalition was determined not to do so. Ultimately India prevailed and the conference was put to back burner. The angry opposition offered militant warnings of words and started the march past of militant volunteers. The confrontation started to take ugly course. Bombs, fake and real, were planted and/or exploded. The new discovery of petrol bomb generated terror among citizens. Who did this? The ruling syndicate blamed the opposition. The opposition denounced such bombings and blamed the government and the ruling syndicate for such acts.

After all, who did the bombings? There are four probable forces for such acts capable to carry out. They are: 1. Communist Party of Nepal -Maoist. 2. Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). 3. Angry, frustrated and skilled unorganized individuals, particularly the members of former PLA scattered all over the country, and 4. Some other small criminal groups hired by election participating parties. The country, once again, sounded like a war zone. Some innocent persons lost their precious lives. Properties, particularly the transport vehicles were damaged and destroyed. In this way, some type of anarchy was created to spread fear all over the country. 

In this period, the Communist Party of Nepal –Maoist - led front continued to dominate the headlines the media with positive or negative coverages. It emerged as the opposition force at national level due to its call for the boycott of the CA election.

The end result was that, now, we have a society and a nation vertically divided. The positions of the parties in two camps are beyond reconciliation.  The fight would continue though the forms will change. 

After the election, the members of the syndicate will have different strengths as individual components. The probable positions could be as: number ONE Nepali Congress, number TWO Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), number 3 Unified Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist. They will form the core of the ruling syndicate by forming a coalition government or by putting an unconstitutional mechanism above the government to share the booty. Madhesi parties may loose their significance all together. Most probably, the parliamentary opposition would be led by Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal and 40 plus parties with 1 to 10 seats may get access into the CA edifice.  Hence, here too horse trading and ugly fights could be seen. All of them are less interested to draft a new constitution rather than to prolong the transition, which gives them the opportunity and means to serve their vested interests. 

The anarchy of the petty political elites will continue for some more years. However, the vertical division, turmoil and deadly confrontation would not allow them to stay long and to enjoy the luxury of power, position and wealth. 

The people, now, are more aware. The critical mass has emerged stronger. The parliamentary opposition within and extra-parliamentary opposition outside the CA would spoil the party of the ruling syndicate. The turmoil may give birth to a third mass movement. The Shah King's autocratic rule and the Panchayat were extremely hated by the people. Hence, there was mass movement in 1990. Gyanendra and his rule were extremely hated by the people. Hence, the mass movement of 2006 took place. The syndicate and the elitist anarchy have been extremely hated by the people now. Hence a third mass movement seems not only logical but also inevitable.  History repeats itself but from a higher spiral, observed V. I. Lenin, perhaps, rightly.