New Political Masters Enthroned: Hopelessness and Upheavals Continue

Govinda Neupane

The election of the prime minister has significantly polarized the political situation. The Congress has felt betrayed. A large majority of the Madhesi parties saw the play, a process that further marginalizes them. The so-called small parties have splinted vertically between left and center. The Unified Maoist party has faced near revolt as their 51 legislators expressed their disagreement on the standing committee decision that supported the CPN (UML) candidate. The UML is one in its look but when somebody goes beyond their physical being, it is the loose network of two entities clubbed together. They are in constant fight against each other. The center-right faction saw the biggest surprise of their political journey, when the Unified Maoist supported the UML candidate, who represents center-left faction of the party. The exercise conducted to elect the prime minister sounded a conspiratorial drama designed to checkmate the other side of the divide. It had everything - conspiracies, cover-ups, excitements, frustrations and many lows of political characters.

The new government will have several push and pull factors together. The most critical factors include but not limited to integration and rehabilitation of Maoist fighters, constitution writing and concluding the peace process logically. The Unified Maoists will not agree to break the chain of command of their fighting force. They will try to keep it as it is now under one or the other cover. The day when they agree to demobilize and disintegrate their armed force, they will be toothless. Hence, neither they will lose control of their PLA, nor will they change the status and modus operandi of operation of the Young Communist League nor will they return the property seized during the time of war. They consider that, now, they are free from these obligations as they are not leading the government. Therefore, at best, the new government could preserve the status quo. "Integration", "rehabilitation", "concluding peace process" and "constitution writing" are simply the phrases to use repeatedly without any operational obligations. Therefore, expecting any outcome, which could be termed substantially progressive, is just a mirage.

One of the major qualities of the new prime minister is that he is considered a weak and vulnerable leader. A government where the Unified Maoists are in majority in the cabinet, certainly they will promote their party's interests. The PM will have no other option than to abide by the Unified Maoist's decisions. The UML, minority in the cabinet, will be utilized to further the Unified Maoist plans. In outer appearance it sounds all great for the Unified Maoist leadership. The critical question is for what the Unified Maoist will utilize such opportunity? The Maoist agenda of societal transformation has been kept in the back-burner, since they became Unified Maoist. Hence, naturally, this opportunity will be utilized for some handsome gains for a galaxy of their core leaders.

The Unified Maoist leadership has clear objectives now. First, sideline or even crush the internal opposition. Second, maximize benefits of the barter they have done in the form of offering the prime minister's chair to a UML faction. Third, implement already devised strategy of getting the prime minister's chair for their chairman. And, finally get a constitution that has presidential form of government and ensure its chairman could get that position. In that day, they will integrate or rehabilitate their PLA, finish barrack system of the Young Communist League and may even return the seized property, if that would help them.

Many people have already started to speculate how long the government will survive? It depends on two critical issues - first, what will happen to constitution writing? Second, how far the prime minister could bear the load of ever increasing pressure? The sources of the pressure include the Unified Maoists, arch-opponents within and outside his party, the southern and northern neighbors and the western world.

There is no two-third majority with the governing coalition. To have the constitution finally approved, they need two-third majority. Therefore, there is a great need of give and take. However, in this environment, where the trust factor has been vanished, it is too difficult to finalize the constitution by the deadline. In that situation either the Constituent Assembly will be dissolved and election for a new assembly will be ordered or again the parties will extended the life of the existing assembly for another year. In such phenomenon, the never ending period of transition will frustrate the people more and there is most likely situation of people revolting against the ruling coalition. This will not only effectively seal the fortune of the government but also it will end the position of the Unified Maoist as powerful party. This way, the government will go by people's revolt. This is not the revolt the Unified Maoist talk often. This would be a revolt against them too. In a distant scenario, the constitution will be drafted, new election will be held and the new government will take over from this government. This is most unlikely to happen.

Now, let's see the second factors. The Unified Maoist chair is just ready to jump on the chair of the government. He will do everything to 'cordially' and 'comradely' oust the PM. Even there are people who say that the new prime minister is a stop gap official as their 'secret' seven point agreement hints that the PM's chair will revolve. In such case, the PM will simply warm the chair for the Unified Maoist chairman. Hence, the pressure from the partner could be unbearable. Equally important is the crucial role that could be played by Baburam Bhattarai camp to bring down the government. Once again, he is cheated as his political line has been implemented excluding him. The Congress and Madhesis are just restless to revenge the 'betrayal' of the UML leaders. The arch-opponents inside the prime minister's party will leave no stone unturned to dethrone him. When the Unified Maoists start prevailing over all government decisions, they will get fodder to feed their own comrades. Frustrated without getting any position of power, many UML MPs may turn against the prime minister. This could lead to the downfall of the government. The Unified Maoist at the center of power, that too, checkmating it, the famous South Block together with the mighty westerners will do everything at its disposal to dislodge the government. This "everything" includes designing splits within the governing parties, particularly within Unified Maoist and UML, convincing the President to stage a soft coup or provoking the army to militarily dethrone the government.

The new government, thus, is simply a change of guards. The guards are that of the same species but with different motivations regarding their self-interests. Their tilt is different. The previous one was tilted towards center- right and this new government has its tilt towards center-left. However, Nepal is a unique case for years. The society remains the same irrespective of the change of governing parties, ideologies or polities. This has been applicable this time too, which simply contributed to continue the existing crisis. There is just the change of custodians but hopelessness and upheavals continue. No medication has been working. Probably, our society and the governance have to go through surgical processes that include rapid transformation through genuine revolution. When the revolution with all its colors and vibrancies starts descending rapidly, the gamblers of the political casinos will be washed away and the people, individually and collectively, will celebrate the dawn of a new age.