Federalism in Nepal: Why and What Type?

Govinda Neupane

When I was finally editing my first book, "Samajik Bikashko Vivechana" (Social Development in Nepal), I realized that there is a great need and urgency to know the composition and characteristics of colorful nationalities in Nepal and the way they could build better social harmony. It was 1999.

I started to prepare notes on nationalities, social compositions, conflicting values and behaviors, and ways and means to address existing discriminations so as to make Nepal a harmonious place to live in.

Once, I even thought of leaving the task of studying, analyzing and determining the nature, number and historical context of different nationalities as it was too complex and too controversial. However, I finally stick to it as I had done some foundation building exercises already. After months of review of literatures available during that time, I prepared three working papers – a) nationalities in Nepal: their composition and standing, b) relationships among them, and, c) superstructure that provides platform for mutually beneficial and harmonious partnership.

I encountered hostile circumstances as many experts, leaders, activists and professionals had highly diverse views on nationalities and many among them were hostile to any superstructure that challenges the one existing that time. A large majority among this crowd was too critical of federalism as they consider that that structure of governance would disintegrate Nepal. They discouraged me saying that that exercise would harm Nepal. I continued my field work for another six months and arrived at a conclusion that the hostile crowd was that of Khasa, the ruling nationality. Many among the leaders of Khasa origin of all major parties were against multiculturalism and federalism.

After a year, I concluded that there were five nationalities in Nepal – Khasa, Madhesi, MangolKirat, Dalit and Newar. I was in two minds about using the term MangolKirat. Many intellectuals among indigenous groups were using the term JANAJATI that included but not limited to MangolKirat. Janak Lal Sharma had first used the term MangolKirat. Harsha Bahadur Budha had used simply the term Kirat that included Magars. In my first draft, I had used Kirat only. However, after consultations with some of the authorities on indigenous people in Nepal including but not limited to Parshuram Tamang, I was convinced that the term MangolKirat better represents that nationality. Although, several advances have been made in researching the nationalities' composition in Nepal, still there is no consensus. It may take some more years or decades, and that is only natural. However, after a decade of that research, I am more convinced that the findings of that research stand correct.

In the past decade, my book, "The Nationalities Question in Nepal: Social Composition and Partnership Building through Multiculturalism and Federalism" has been widely used as reference material for evidences to highlight socio-political discriminations in Nepal. It has got wide recognition in area of study on discrimination of nationalities.

The decade-long Civil War created upheavals in the society. The values, belief systems and practices had to pass through scrutiny. Several old values were discarded, belief systems were challenged and the society had gone through the painful process of initial restructuring. However, the process got stuck when the Maoists entered into a new path that included negotiations, give and take and compromises. When the Maoists changed their strategies, they needed different political traits that had similar value ingredients as that of their new brethren, the Congress and CPN (UML). Hence, the process of societal transformation faced new road blocks as the lead actor disappeared from the scene. Thus, the Maoists became friendlier to status quo and gradually sidelined themselves from exercises that needed confrontation against the creamy layer of the society including the most influential Khasa politico-intellectual fraternity.

Many popular agencies formed and led by oppressed nationalities and their activists either were trapped by the Khasa-led politico-governance mechanism or by the western donors as their projects. Now, on the horizon, there are not many agencies or individuals available who truly represent the dreams of oppressed nationalities. Krishna Bhattachan and a few scholars and activists like him could be seen in the wilderness still defending the cause, still putting their intellectual richness, energy and time to champion the dreams of an egalitarian Nepali society that is free from prejudices and discriminations.

In this context, new breeds of champions of federalism have emerged. They are the yesteryear's die-hard opponents of federalism including the Congress and UML leaders. Many anti-federalism professors and professionals are raising voices in favor of federalism. However, their model of federalism is the second edition of Panchayati geographical set ups of zones or regions. Adding a few cosmetics, they want to reintroduce the same politico-administrative mechanism in the name of federalism.

Why federalism was considered a need in Nepal? The oppressed nationalities had concerns in three primary areas – cultural identity, end of discriminatory practices related to nationalities and equitable access to power, opportunities and resources. To address these concerns, they raised the voice for multiculturalism and federalism. Putting together these two attributes with geography, economic viability and governance, the appropriate federal model could be evolved. However, the new Mullahs of federalism are advocating for splitting the federal units from north to south to suit their interests. Mahendralism or Birendralism with some cosmetics added by Congress-UML-Maoists will not be federalism, if it would not address the core issue of multiculturalism that too with autonomy and the right to self-determination. Moreover, the federalism that has its functional base on co-operation or if it is a cooperative federalism, only that model could absorb the shocks and could provide sound platform for dialogue so as to sustain development, cooperation and harmony.

Now, there is a commission that is tasked with recommending the model. Before any meaningful discussion inside the commission, the coordinator of the commission has started to advocate for Mahendralism or Birendralism. This is another futile exercise that would simply legalize the thoughts, plans and designs of the Khasa leaders. Without addressing the core issue of multiculturalism, any state restructuring exercise would not address the aspirations of oppressed nationalities and thus, could not solve the problem.

Now, the transformational socio-political and economic course has been put in the back burner. It is quite unfortunate. The interests of working classes, oppressed nationalities and marginalized sections should get proper attention and priority. If that will not happen, the radical transformational course would get accelaration, once again, sooner or later. The wise men and women could see it, the average type could sense and the fools have no idea. Irrespective of having any idea or no idea, the radical course correction is inevitable.

Nepal: Disparately Waiting for the End of Darkness

Govinda Neupane


The ‘last’ extension of the term of six months of the constituent assembly has many interpretations. Some of the cartoonists have already sensed that the leaders, who have no credibility and moral obligations to abide by laws, rules and norms would again propose for another ‘final’ term extension after six months as the Supreme Court has used the term ‘last’ and not ‘final’ in its verdict. Some parties have even rejected the jurisdiction of the court in the ‘extension business’, which they consider is their fiefdom. Moreover, some party cadres present in the parliament have asked to impeach the judges for ‘encroaching’ into their politico-legislative territory.


Similarly, the verbal barbs have regularly been exchanged between Prachanda-Baburam Faction (PBF) and Baidya-Badal Faction (BBF) within the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). The two line struggle of the present essence and form that had originated from the Chunbang meeting has been polarizing them and has established two de facto Headquarters. The management of the Maoist fighters or rather, in essence, the demobilization, disarmament and rehabilitation of the organized Maoist’s military force could be the last axe that would split the party into two.


The non-Maoist parliamentary forces have downsized their roles as cautious observers. The issues they were championing in the past that included disarmament of Maoist fighters, return of seized property, end of barrack-system of Youth Communist League (YCL) and acceptance of pluralism by the Maoists have been taken over by PBF. When PBF replaced them as the lead parliamentary force, the leaders of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) have plenty of time to shine their cheeks, dresses and shoes. Hence, now they look as the products of high quality manufacturers. Really, they are the new brand of Nepali leaders - wealthy, healthy and elegant. The Madhesi leaders are neither far away from them nor could they be so. The parliamentary Panchas, organized under a democratic banner called Rastriya Prajatantra Party, could be seen ruminating at one corner of the luxurious balcony. Hence, the fire-fight between PBF and BBF has provided opportunities to relax to the conventional parliamentary forces.


The social forces with several organizations, natures, colours and agenda are making their presence felt through their acts, actions and movements. Among them, the prominent forces include the indigenous people, different nationalities and marginalized sections. Two issues – federalism and rights of their respective constituencies are being debated vigorously.
Some forces including the Kirat Janabadi Workers party, different factions of Tarai Janatantrik Mukti Morcha, Samyukta Jatiya Mukti Morcha, etc are carrying out their social-political activities by being involved in violent means. The Matrika-led Maoists also are in the picture, though with limited visibility.


The foreign forces, particularly India and the United States are busy in pampering PBF so as to complete disarmament of the Maoists fighters. Dismantling the organized formation is what India and the westerners are after. For them everything including human rights, stability, progress and development etc. are non-issues. When the nonperforming constituent assembly got extension, the Secretary General of the United Nations pours flowers on them. Non-performance is being rewarded. What nonsense!
In such background as briefly discussed as above, the fundamental challenges that include societal transformation and structural rearrangement have been out of sight and they are no longer considered as priority issues.


The gains, which the people had made during the transformative period of civil war, are in question in regard to their sustainability. Poverty, illiteracy, social inequalities and marginalization have been continuing, as if they are part and parcel of Nepali life.


When the PBF came to power with some mysterious arrangement with Madhesi forces, there was some sort of euphoria. Baburam had an untarnished image, further shined by his academic brilliance. He was one of the last available leaders of high stature. When he became Prime minister, during that time people had high hopes and expectations from him. In the course of reaching to power and staying there for a longer period of time, he sacrificed most part of his political and intellectual assets. This phenomenon thickened the darkness. And, the frustration among ordinary people contributed to further hopelessness. Now, the political process has lost its way and nobody knows where it reaches to.


Lawlessness and anarchy are the twins that govern everything in Nepal. Criminals have a field day. Criminalization of politics or rather politicization of crime is a course that has been accepted as normal as sun coming out from the east every morning. For two grams of gold, women are being murdered. Small children are continuously being abducted in want of ransom and several of them have been murdered. Nepal has been witnessing hundreds of events that make commoners very sad.


The complex and fluid situation, which is full of anarchy, lawlessness, corruption, and many more negative phenomenon has been called ‘transition’. It is full of darkness. Nobody knows how and when this darkness ends. There are not many alternatives or alternative forces that could generate hope among people. The BBF together with social forces such as indigenous nationalities has the potential to develop as an alternative. However, they too are behaving like a talking club. In strategic sense, yes, the darkness will end; but right now it is too gloomy to see the end of the tunnel. One most probable course could be an unpredictable one – spontaneous uprising of people, the Nepal Spring.

Nepal in Transition: Short Euphoria, Long Journey

- Govinda Neupane

Formation of the new Unified Maoist-led government has created hype among intelligentsia in Kathmandu. A large majority of them dislikes Unified Maoist but likes Prime Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai. It is strange but true. Dr. Bhattarai has been considered a genius for a long time. The support available for him is primarily based on his background, particularly his academic records and his tax collection ability during his tenure as Finance Minister. After being the Prime Minister, he has taken some steps, though cosmetic in nature but quite popular among the intelligentsia. These steps include the Mustang Jeep, lunch at Sigh Durbar cafeteria, announcement of a few relief measures etc. Individuals could play important roles. However, an individual could not transform a society. The politics they represent makes the difference. Hence, leaving him alone here, I like to explore probable course of Nepali politics.

The Unified Maoist got the opportunity to lead the government, second time. The first Unified Maoist-led government is known for selling dreams of all-round transformation and buying political compost to nurture parliamentary sapling inside the party. Prachanda's government never seriously concentrated in any real issues, rather he was spreading everywhere. He sounded a man in hurry.. During that time, his control over the party was intact as he was still the superhero of the revolution. Gradually, he demystified himself. His party also contributed to demystify him. The Unified Maoist party tried to look communist to its base and democratic to its new found galaxy. The new galaxy of parliamentary fame incorporated it with some serious pre-conditions. The pre-conditions included that the Unified Maoist had to renounce violence, disband their fighting force, which they call PLA, revert to old societal structure in economic relationships by surrendering the land they seized during insurgency, and finally accept pluralism in all sphere of socio-political values, systems and practices. Gradually, the party opened its doors to individuals, groups and smaller parties to get a majority to meet the conditions put forward by the great galaxy of parliamentary fame. The leadership used two types of fodders to feed its cadres and supporting grassroots on one side of the divide and to convince its new national and international friends on the other side. The first was a basket of anti-India rhetoric and strikes, including the suicidal 'indefinite general strike' and several industrial closures. It helped the party to maintain the revolutionary posture. The second was accepting "made in India" political course more indirectly and attending to meet the pre-conditions as mentioned above. The first course helped to soften, deform and disband the hard core revolutionaries gradually and the second course broadened the acceptance among new national and international friends like Nepali Congress, Unified Marxist-Leninist, India, Europe and America.

Now, inside the Unified Maoist party, the line struggle has centered on demobilization of the PLA either through integration with Nepal army or by rehabilitating them in the society. The leaders are fighting, the cadres are joining them and the public at large are watching the fight with bewilderment and skepticism. The side the Unified Maoist camel will sit is already clear. The majority will go for demobilization as this is a major condition put forward by the parliamentary forces together with India, America and Europe to fully submerge itself into the democratic world. The course of minority led by Kiran-Badal combine is not clear. The minority leadership has not made public any specific tactical or strategic line till date. Anyway, the new government formed over a sandy foundation may continue till it implements "made in India" political course.

The old parliamentary political parties will sit in opposition and utilize any available opportunity to create more pressure on their new Unified Maoist friends to meet the conditions as soon as possible. They also will continue to harvest financial benefits and other opportunities as far as possible. Happy India could use its new found financial muscle to accomplish the task of PLA demobilization by supporting to offer an attractive package or also may provide finances to fund infrastructure projects, though in a cosmetic way. We could even see the development that followed the merger of Sikkim with India. The western countries may throw their hats on the ring. Scandinavian countries, particularly Norway may provide finances as it could project Nepal as its success story in its peace initiatives. It may compensate its failure in Sri Lanka. The Americans, though they are in difficulty in managing bread for themselves, may throw a few million dollars by printing money as they always do as one of the most undisciplined nation in the world. Hence, we could have a euphoric environment exactly similar to the post-1990 days. During that time, we were waiting for a giant Russian cargo plane that could bring Singapore to Nepal. The Prime Minister of that time had promised to make Nepal Singapore in no time. That did not happen that time, nor will this happen this time.

More than 1400 people sacrificed their lives either in establishing a new order or protecting the existing socio-political order. However, what we achieved?

The grassroots is more aware of their conditions, prospects and the hostilities that surround them. The social hierarchy has started to crumble down. The social power structure in the society has got changed drastically. The mouths are open. The spirit has been reinvented. The sense of power has empowered the previously marginalized and economically oppressed. The women are not only dreaming equality but also demanding to bring it into practice. The oppressed nationalities have come forward and are asking for greater access to opportunities and are striving hard for establishing their shining identities in a federal Nepal. The monarchy is gone. These are remarkable achievements. However, when we compare our achievements with that of other nations, sadness governs our thought processes. Poverty, illiteracy, ill health, oppression, marginalization etc continue to challenge our conscience.

A large percentage of people are still surviving under extreme poverty. The progress what we have attained has been grabbed by a tiny minority mostly composed of the upper middle class and urban elites. Inequalities exist in their extreme. Hence, the society has changed in incremental term, but is the same in structural term. The structures of the old society have started to crumble. However, they are very much dominant even today. Hence, there is the need of transformational ideals, actions and arrangements.

But, how the process moves ahead that addresses the need after such a major setback? The Maoist (not Unified Maoist) left the course at the middle of the journey. Yes, there is scarcity but it is still not a situation of disastrous famine. Be they minority inside the Unified Maoist or some new entities to take the lead; the endeavors that once the Maoist initiated, championed and developed would continue.

The euphoria originated due to the formation of new Unified Maoist-led government will be over sooner than later. The new endeavors will take shape and different organized forces would emerge. The new heroes will appear. And, the class confrontation will continue till a fundamentally different society comes into existence and a new progressive state power is established. The oppressed nationalities will continue their struggle to meeting their aspirations that will help them getting greater access and shinning identity. The Dalits will never sit idle till their emancipation is attained. The people have no option other than to continue their forward march. We took rest for about five years; it is time to start a long journey, once again.

A Cursory Look on Political Developments in Nepal

Govinda Neupane

Even after a long and painful waiting period of more than four years, the Nepali people could not see rays of hope and the mile stone where the transition ends. Frustration has become the talking agenda for a large majority. The leaders are busy building the personal empire and ensuring luxury and comfort for them. The people are seeing the leaders and their notorious acts and have become speechless. They, particularly the disciplined cadres, who still cherish the dream of a new Nepal, have been slowly recovering from their own disbeliefs. The most revered leaders and most loved party headquarters have moved 360 degree in all areas encompassing ideology, politics, tactic, strategy and practice. This phenomenon is more true to the cadres and supporters of Unified Communist party of Nepal (Maoist). The change, there, is phenomenal.

Now, it is important to have a cursory look of the political developments, particularly reviewing the developments of recent past so as to have some glimpses of the future.

The 12-point agreement between the Maoist and the parliamentary parties had created new expectations. The Nepalese people were waiting to get rid of many difficulties. Although, the people’s movement of April 2006 succeeded in electing the constituent assembly and abolishing the monarchy, but the new ruling elites utterly failed in generating hope among the people. They talked loudly about the birth of a New Nepal, but that Nepal was neither moving towards peace nor stability nor prosperity.

The Maoist people’s war was naturally violent. During the war, they not only practised armed transformational course of the society, but also imparted skills on the use of weapons, build strong attitudes towards organized attempts to attain goals and generated hope among people that a shiny new day is closer to their lives. So, the expectations had been created aggressively. The failure in materializing the expectation resulted to the emergence of several armed groups.

The parliamentary parties were accustomed to lethargy, cynicism, brinkmanship and greed. They were in a state of rotten potatoes. Simply, they were involved in certain regular rituals, which could be constructed as ‘peaceful struggle’ at times of need. They lined up at the opportune moment together with the Maoists and with India and are continuously harvesting benefits.

The king was an outdated autocrat, who was not only extremely unpopular but also was a useless brat who did not know even the basics of governance. Naturally, the monarchy accumulated all negatives at one point of time and initiated its own downfall.

The anti-monarchy role India played at that particular moment was critically important. India was unhappy with the monarchy as the monarchy was considered as anti-India, historically.

Hence, the Maoists with the strength of people’s power moved ahead in collaboration with the parliamentary political parties as these parties had certain degree of legitimacy on their side. Both of them together joined hands with India to overthrow the autocratic monarchy. India also represented the western power centres. Finally, they formed a coalition to overthrow the monarchy and they succeeded to accomplish that goal.

The days after the success of the movement, brought some honeymoon between the changing Maoists and the parliamentary political parties. They formed an interim government, drafted an interim constitution, organized election for the constituent assembly, abolished monarchy legally, formed government under the Maoists’ leadership and gave some impression that things will move to right direction and a New Nepal could be there sooner. But, that did not happen. The Unified Maoists failed miserably in all fronts, which could initiate radical change in the society. Hence, the Unified Maoist-led government collapsed. The UML-led spineless governments were no different.

After a few years of the success of the mass movement, the scenario got drastically changed. There is all-round frustration. There are tensions in the society. There are clashes of interests. The contradictions between and among nationalities is one particular feature of serious concern. The constitution drafting is facing serious roadblocks and the nature of federalism is one among them.

In political front, there are three forces in full play.

The first camp is that of regressive forces. The former monarch is the de facto leader of this camp. The regressive forces are not that well organized in form but have tremendous power in substance. They are thinly spread within political parties, bureaucracy, army, police, intelligence networks, so-called civil society groups and so on. They sometimes cover themselves as nationalists, in some other occasion as anti-federalists and in some other times present them as Hindu zealots. They sound sometimes as peace preachers and sometimes as human rights defenders. So, they are omnipresent. They work on the basis of issues and try everything to create obstacles in the advancement of the society in all its attributes – values, ethics, beliefs, attitudes, progress etc. These dark forces play skilfully and create platforms where the forces of reform and the forces of transformation clash among and between themselves. These regressive forces have played vital role in maintaining the.

The second camp is composed of reformists. They are in a difficult situation as their cadre base is composed of idealist change activists and their leadership represent the interests of semi- reactionary or reactionary classes. Many among leaders who are at the helm of the political organizations in this camp are overtly foreigner’s darlings. They talk loud to pacify their cadres, to blindfold common people and to camouflage themselves. Hence, this force, which is at the centre stage of the state power, is a coalition of progressive bottom and part-regressive top. The Nepali Congress, UML and Unified Maoist Establishment Platform (UMEP) belong to this reformist camp.

The third camp is that of transformational forces. The Mohan Baidya-led Maoist platform, Matrika Yadav-led Maoists, Mani Thapa-led Maoists etc belong to this camp. There are others also such as Kirat Janabadi Workers Party in this camp. They are in a state of setback and are again rearranging raw jute threads to make a rope. Hence, they are, at this point of time, creeping babies in the sense of their organizational strength. Still, they could turn into a formidable force anytime soon as there are plenty of raw materials available for them to process.

The regressive forces were the regressive forces in the past too (prior to 2006). The transformational forces were the transformational forces in the past too. Among the reformist forces, the Nepali Congress and the UML were the reformist forces in the past too. Hence, there is only one entity that got changed is the Unified Maoist’s establishment platform (UMEP). All other forces except the UMEP have been travelling following their stated roadmaps. They are predictable. However, the political behaviours of the UMEP are most unpredictable. This platform swings to all directions and climbs up and down in no time without any understandable reasons. Hence, the UMEP has been instrumental in making and breaking promises, structures and functions. It is primarily responsible for what has been happening today in Nepal. Understanding this reality is no less than attaining half of the solutions of the problems the country and the people are facing.

The sudden change of the politics of the UMEP made the process of societal change gloomy and messy. The state and society have every right to ask UMEP to behave according to their newly acquired political philosophy. The transformational forces also should recognize the fact that they are fundamentally different and should take their course accordingly. When, the roles would be clear, the mess will start getting cleared. The clarification of their roles automatically clears the ways for political alliances based on their ideological affinity and class base. Gradually, the thick fog would disappear and the road ahead will be visible to drive to.

Tenure of the Constituent Assembly: Extension, Extension ......

Govinda Neupane

Why the Constituent Assembly (CA) again failed to complete the constitution writing process? Many people believe that due to fighting among political parties and infighting within them are the major reasons. Some others say that it is due to Unified Maoist's reluctance to detach itself from its combatants. Some fertile minds cultivate reason and tell us that there is foreign hand. Some leaders say there is conspiracy to dissolve the CA and they are creating hurdles to stall the constitution drafting process. Hence, it would be absolutely necessary to look deep why the constitution is not ready.

The major issues that had contributed to the starting of the decade long "people's war" and the people's movement of 2006 included but not limited to political freedom, economic development and social justice through inclusion and participation. To institutionalize these strategic objectives, it was agreed that a new constitutional mechanism should be designed and for that purpose the election of a CA would be the best course. Hence, the election was organized and a grand CA came into existence. The tenure of this assembly was of two years, and when the assembly failed to produce the desired result the life of the assembly was extend for another year.

After sidelining the king, the CA declared Nepal a republic. Also, it concluded that Nepal will be a federal state. However, it failed to state on what basis the federal structure will stand on - geography, economic viability, nationality/ethnicity clusters, and combination of all or something else.

Hence, inability in agreeing on the restructuring of the state by designing a system that insures social inclusion and no interest in creating an operational framework that brings into full play the rights of indigenous and/or oppressed nationalities, marginalized sections and working class people are some of the major factors that have been contributing for the failure to finalize the constitution. In such background, federalism becomes one of the issues of prime importance.

The people, particularly the indigenous people and Madhesis have been facing discrimination in areas of language, ownership, opportunities, representation and governance. They want their rights back. To ensure that their grievances are addressed appropriately and positively, they should get the opportunity to govern themselves in a very autonomous way with the right to self-determination. Unfortunately, nearly all top leaders of major political parties are high caste hill Hindu Khasa males, who have failed to feel the discriminations against and sufferings of the oppressed sections of the people. Moreover, their control over power may erode, and thus, they are most reluctant to design a federal system where power is highly decentralized. Now, they need time to dilute the aspirations of oppressed people with frustrations so as to design a system of their likings that could be a nominally federated mechanism more in line with Mahendra's zonal system or Birendra's regional system.

The other unresolved issue was the reservation or special rights for marginalized sections of the society including Dalits, indigenous peoples and Madhesis, and women. Inclusion of marginalized sections into the mainstream needs bold steps to incorporate in the constitution. The reservation for women and Dalits and reparation for the Dalits are some of the critical issues. The Khasa male mindset of the troika prevents them moving forward. At the same time, they cannot deny the needs of such provisions, and they simply prolong the life of the Constituent Assembly to buy time.

Similarly, the large working class majority has been expecting change in their conditions. This needs a constitution that overtly favors working class majority, excluded sections and oppressed nationalities/ethnicities. However, the leaders either have come from higher class back ground or have amassed wealth and have elevated to higher class. They are not in need of the change which is transformative and creates environment for radically new power relationships. If there is no new constitution, the leaders could pretend that they are with the people whilst enjoying lives of aristocrats.

Democracy is one of the most misunderstood political terms in Nepal. Nepal, as a country, was never democratic, neither it is today. The Shahas had the dictatorial rule that followed by similar rule of Ranas. When such rule finally was over in 2006, the people got a dictatorial rule of a new troika (sometimes a gang of two or sometimes only an individual lord). This troika collectively and/or an individual behind the curtain or openly have been ruling Nepal for more than four years. The brigade of 601 at Baneshwor is functioning just as the participants of a public gathering. They are there to listen and to clap. Due to the troika or the individual lord taking all decisions, the CA has been functioning as a rubber stamp. May be a large majority of the CA members feels powerless, sees their role ornamental and experiences humiliation when the people throw stones on them. Designing democratic constitution by the most undemocratic troika is an uphill task, if not impossible.

Every big leader has turned to be a liability for him. This has created fear factor within them. In the same degree, their parties also are not confident that they will be able to grab better opportunities next time as their credibility factor is too low. In any case, there will be much less number in the legislative assembly, if a constitution is finally ready. Hence, slaughtering the constitution writing process and prolonging their stay in power is in the interest of the parties of the troika.

Also, the Unified Maoists are being composted and they need time to go through the decomposition process. They have taken the familiar UML route with much better speed. However, the compost needs time to be ready to be used to make the parliamentary system greener. The westerners know this better and as experts of time, space and processes, they are advising to extend the tenure of the CA and are funding too.

Due to the reasons as mentioned above, the government has proposed to extend the tenure of the CA for one year now, and the future extensions are open.

Is there any chance that the people or parties or parliamentarians could snatch power from the troika and complete the constitution writing process?

The people are very much frustrated. Hopelessness, generally expressed as "Jun Jogi Aaye Pani Kanai Chireko" (everybody is the same), has been encrypted in their mind. May be, not because of no constitution, as it is too abstract for them, but because of anarchy, lawlessness, scarcity of essential commodities and sky rocketing prices, the people will come out boiling with rage. When the lion is out of a cage, it is really out. Similarly, when parties start becoming parties and not the fiefdoms of the patriarchs, they may revolt against. And, when the parliamentarians start feeling really as a humiliated lot - powerless and frustrated, they may start ventilating their anger that could progress to some sort of revolt. These three are the positive factors that could help bringing out a federal, inclusive, democratic and progressive constitution. The alternative is foreign instigated or locally staged coup. This will add even more darkness; however, the troika rule is heading towards that direction. Let's try to bring synergy and build collaboration among people, parties and parliamentarians to prevent further darkness and to take our country to peace, progress and prosperity.
May 13, 2010

New Political Masters Enthroned: Hopelessness and Upheavals Continue

Govinda Neupane

The election of the prime minister has significantly polarized the political situation. The Congress has felt betrayed. A large majority of the Madhesi parties saw the play, a process that further marginalizes them. The so-called small parties have splinted vertically between left and center. The Unified Maoist party has faced near revolt as their 51 legislators expressed their disagreement on the standing committee decision that supported the CPN (UML) candidate. The UML is one in its look but when somebody goes beyond their physical being, it is the loose network of two entities clubbed together. They are in constant fight against each other. The center-right faction saw the biggest surprise of their political journey, when the Unified Maoist supported the UML candidate, who represents center-left faction of the party. The exercise conducted to elect the prime minister sounded a conspiratorial drama designed to checkmate the other side of the divide. It had everything - conspiracies, cover-ups, excitements, frustrations and many lows of political characters.

The new government will have several push and pull factors together. The most critical factors include but not limited to integration and rehabilitation of Maoist fighters, constitution writing and concluding the peace process logically. The Unified Maoists will not agree to break the chain of command of their fighting force. They will try to keep it as it is now under one or the other cover. The day when they agree to demobilize and disintegrate their armed force, they will be toothless. Hence, neither they will lose control of their PLA, nor will they change the status and modus operandi of operation of the Young Communist League nor will they return the property seized during the time of war. They consider that, now, they are free from these obligations as they are not leading the government. Therefore, at best, the new government could preserve the status quo. "Integration", "rehabilitation", "concluding peace process" and "constitution writing" are simply the phrases to use repeatedly without any operational obligations. Therefore, expecting any outcome, which could be termed substantially progressive, is just a mirage.

One of the major qualities of the new prime minister is that he is considered a weak and vulnerable leader. A government where the Unified Maoists are in majority in the cabinet, certainly they will promote their party's interests. The PM will have no other option than to abide by the Unified Maoist's decisions. The UML, minority in the cabinet, will be utilized to further the Unified Maoist plans. In outer appearance it sounds all great for the Unified Maoist leadership. The critical question is for what the Unified Maoist will utilize such opportunity? The Maoist agenda of societal transformation has been kept in the back-burner, since they became Unified Maoist. Hence, naturally, this opportunity will be utilized for some handsome gains for a galaxy of their core leaders.

The Unified Maoist leadership has clear objectives now. First, sideline or even crush the internal opposition. Second, maximize benefits of the barter they have done in the form of offering the prime minister's chair to a UML faction. Third, implement already devised strategy of getting the prime minister's chair for their chairman. And, finally get a constitution that has presidential form of government and ensure its chairman could get that position. In that day, they will integrate or rehabilitate their PLA, finish barrack system of the Young Communist League and may even return the seized property, if that would help them.

Many people have already started to speculate how long the government will survive? It depends on two critical issues - first, what will happen to constitution writing? Second, how far the prime minister could bear the load of ever increasing pressure? The sources of the pressure include the Unified Maoists, arch-opponents within and outside his party, the southern and northern neighbors and the western world.

There is no two-third majority with the governing coalition. To have the constitution finally approved, they need two-third majority. Therefore, there is a great need of give and take. However, in this environment, where the trust factor has been vanished, it is too difficult to finalize the constitution by the deadline. In that situation either the Constituent Assembly will be dissolved and election for a new assembly will be ordered or again the parties will extended the life of the existing assembly for another year. In such phenomenon, the never ending period of transition will frustrate the people more and there is most likely situation of people revolting against the ruling coalition. This will not only effectively seal the fortune of the government but also it will end the position of the Unified Maoist as powerful party. This way, the government will go by people's revolt. This is not the revolt the Unified Maoist talk often. This would be a revolt against them too. In a distant scenario, the constitution will be drafted, new election will be held and the new government will take over from this government. This is most unlikely to happen.

Now, let's see the second factors. The Unified Maoist chair is just ready to jump on the chair of the government. He will do everything to 'cordially' and 'comradely' oust the PM. Even there are people who say that the new prime minister is a stop gap official as their 'secret' seven point agreement hints that the PM's chair will revolve. In such case, the PM will simply warm the chair for the Unified Maoist chairman. Hence, the pressure from the partner could be unbearable. Equally important is the crucial role that could be played by Baburam Bhattarai camp to bring down the government. Once again, he is cheated as his political line has been implemented excluding him. The Congress and Madhesis are just restless to revenge the 'betrayal' of the UML leaders. The arch-opponents inside the prime minister's party will leave no stone unturned to dethrone him. When the Unified Maoists start prevailing over all government decisions, they will get fodder to feed their own comrades. Frustrated without getting any position of power, many UML MPs may turn against the prime minister. This could lead to the downfall of the government. The Unified Maoist at the center of power, that too, checkmating it, the famous South Block together with the mighty westerners will do everything at its disposal to dislodge the government. This "everything" includes designing splits within the governing parties, particularly within Unified Maoist and UML, convincing the President to stage a soft coup or provoking the army to militarily dethrone the government.

The new government, thus, is simply a change of guards. The guards are that of the same species but with different motivations regarding their self-interests. Their tilt is different. The previous one was tilted towards center- right and this new government has its tilt towards center-left. However, Nepal is a unique case for years. The society remains the same irrespective of the change of governing parties, ideologies or polities. This has been applicable this time too, which simply contributed to continue the existing crisis. There is just the change of custodians but hopelessness and upheavals continue. No medication has been working. Probably, our society and the governance have to go through surgical processes that include rapid transformation through genuine revolution. When the revolution with all its colors and vibrancies starts descending rapidly, the gamblers of the political casinos will be washed away and the people, individually and collectively, will celebrate the dawn of a new age.