Red Nepal Turns White Ephemerally

Govinda Neupane

(Previously, the article was posted on http://www.ujyalonepal.blogspot.com/ under an assumed name Ratna Prabhat. First time published in August 29, 2008)


The hopes and aspirations created by the decade long people's war between the holder of the old regressive regime and the aspirants of the new progressive state power had generated tremendous energy that heralded the beginning of a new era. The consciously designed course of socio-political change was vivid. The people not only could see it but also could sense, hear and touch. That was seen in human relationships, class relationships and community relationships. The production processes also had been influenced including the roles of the productive forces. The process of political empowerment had initiated all powerful attempts that could lead to human emancipation. The tempest of forward march was seen all over Nepal, particularly in its rural areas. Every next day, it was uniquely different than the previous day. There was all pervading anticipation that tomorrow would be markedly different than today. After the People's Movement II, the momentum some how got obstructed. The tempest of change started to pass through the process of "go slow" and ultimately it was surpassed by the arrangements of real politicking such as power sharing, coalition formations and adjustments between the forces of change and the forces of status quo.In the rapidly changing political scenario, many people feel bewildered as they were not able to sense the course of events.

The braves turned to be something different, the ones in political hibernation started to bargain and the well-known political crooks and their organizations started to shine. Strange but true! Nepal slowly but steadily started to turn white.The people in uniform called People's Liberation Army (PLA) all of the sudden discovered that they have to take care of their families themselves. The children of these PLA soldiers born as the sons or daughters of full time PLA parents became pariah with an uncertain future. Many of these PLA soldiers have no resource base to support the survival and development of these children. Not only the children but they themselves would face difficulties in managing their livelihood. Now, the easy option is to integrate them with the regular government army. This could solve their personal problems but they will have to sacrifice their dreams of human emancipation. They would be the part of the same armed bureaucracy that has been there for about two and a half centuries. In any case, the integration would effectively finish the PLA together with their dream, a dream of emancipated humanity.

The landless and poor peasants, who were at the forefront of the movement, also had developed a dream, a dream of justice, prosperity and advancement. Even, they had got land to cultivate as part of the agrarian reform process, a land reform of limited scale and magnitude. They had started to develop some sorts of the sense of ownership over the land they got. Now, they are going to loose that temporary ownership/tilling right. Their dream has been shattered. The industrial, construction, service delivery and other off-farm workers, both organized and unorganized, had developed a dream, a dream of better working conditions, better wages and respectful owner-worker relationship. Most of them have been connected to one or the other labor unions. Their bargaining capacity had greatly increased. But, now, when the process of negotiated settlement of the class conflict started, gradually they have been loosing the ground. The priority on industrial peace would effectively overshadow their rights and aspirations. There is high possibility that from now on, they would loose their bargaining power even more. Their dream also has confronted with the rough political weather and is at the verge of vanishing.

The people's governance mechanisms at local levels called "Jana Sarkars" (people's governments) have lost their relevance. The functionaries of such mechanisms became unemployed. Till two years ago, their writ was running as effectively as that of any functional government. Now, not only their opponents are against them but their own creators also have disowned them. This has effectively ended the power exercising organizational mechanism created by the decade-long war.The youths organized as militia in the past and converted to Young Communist League (YCL) afterward played significant role in curbing crimes, taming the untamable and delivering justice instantly. It is also equally true that in many cases, they committed excesses. Particularly, it happened due to the need of short cuts to win the election. They were the most powerful instruments during that time. Now, they are considered a spent force. Their role has been in question by their opponents and media, both.

The youths organized through the process of popular mobilizations and social actions are at the verge of disappearance as organized force. Alternatively, they could be surviving as vegetable/paddy growing community as some of their leaders are advocating such a role for them. The "people's courts" are now going to be replaced with the old state's courts. The verdict delivered by the "people's courts" and reversal of such decisions would create a mess in the lives of many people, particularly in the rural areas. It is not the question of integrating two systems in one, but in all practical sense, it is deactivating one and accepting the functional as well as legal jurisdiction of the other. In such situation, "people's courts" will be deactivated and the old state's court system will have the sole judicial authority.

A large majority of the sympathizers, who had started believing that the new era of illumination and abundance would be not that far, have started now to question their own expectations. Moreover, many among them have been expressing bewilderment. They had distant past that was full of difficulties; they had yesterday that was full of hopes and dreams; they have today that is full of uncertainties and bewilderments and they have no clear cut picture of tomorrow. They are feeling speechless; as if the whole euphoria of emancipation got multiple accidents at one go. The most affected lot is none other than the party cadres. They offered everything that belongs to them - time, energy, personal property, physical strength, intellectual capacities and emotional treasures. They had an ideal and they sacrificed everything to attain goals that help to realize that ideal. The ideal was the complete and sustainable emancipation of human being - a state of human civilization where oppression, suppression, injustices, poverty, ignorance and unjustifiably unequal human relations, wealth accumulations and opportunity allocations would be the stories of past. The society would be thriving because of the civility, enterprise, technological advances and enlightened behavior of its owners/creators/sustainers - the people. Now, that ideal has been questioned and the path reaching there has been going through twists and turns.

The common party cadres are divided between the followers of today's statesmen and yesterday's guides. The average party cadres are at loss of a guide, philosopher and mentor - the party that commands their respect. The party is still there, but that is some how different than the party they built. Many among the common cadres neither could cry nor could celebrate. They are in a state of bemusement, as if they have lost their sense of judgment. A large number of people made sacrifices.

More than 13000 people sacrificed their lives. Many people sacrificed their organs or body parts as a result of the massive injuries they suffered. Many of them sacrificed their freedom for years as they were languished behind the bars. Many people sacrificed their tears as their beloved ones were taken away from them permanently. The sacrifice made in the form of emotional treasures, perhaps, is one of the most important sacrifices made by the surviving relatives and comrades. Now, they are looking at developments that are not in conformity with the dreams they had during the time they were or are making these contributions.According to the law of contradictions; the new fight is imminent to begin from a new height.

The forces tilting towards the forces of status quo and the forces desirous to march to attain the goal of establishing a new progressive regime in Nepal have no option other than to fight against each other. Hence, there would be a new realignment. That realignment would break relationships, which have the foundation in the previous form of political arrangements. Such realignment would give birth to a new environment for the political as well as armed forces and mass organizations to go through a process of critical assessment of the objective situation. This realignment will also influence the behaviors of the social and economic forces and will encourage them to reassess their respective roles.

Certainly, in the near future, that realignment would take place. Furthermore, that realignment would open up the flood gate of political turmoil of unprecedented nature, scale and intensity. And, a new path would appear for a new journey to begin. This is nothing other than an integral process of continuous revolution.

Political Quagmire and Glimmer of Hope

Govinda Neupane

During 1940s, 1950s and 1960s, the Nepali Congress contributed to create political awareness among the people, though it had several limitations. During 1970s and 1980s, the Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Leninist) was at the forefront of the movement that tried to rally people around the core agenda of societal transformation. During 1990s and 2000s (except the last few years), the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) not only continued the process of transformation at the grassroots, but also it provided alternative mechanism for people's governance and established de-facto state power in a large part of the country. Suddenly, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) decided to chart a new course and signed 12-points agreement in Delhi. After traveling through bumpy roads, it has reached somewhere now, though many people including a large number of Unified Maoist cadres do not know where they are and which road they have to go through to reach their vague goal of establishing a people's republic. When the Maoists became the largest party in the constituent assembly and formed the coalition government under their leadership; there was hope, excitement and thrill all over the country. They had launched and continued people's war for more than a decade and their image was that of a revolutionary force free of corruption, nepotism, inaction, lethargy and submission to any kind of unjust pressures and pressure tactics. They ruled Nepal for about nine months. But, the day Unified Maoists vacated the seat of state power, their shining image had already been faded. They lost their revolutionary aroma and unmatched level of credibility. Moreover, people's trust on their ability, sincerity and rationality has also been questioned.

In a country like ours where a large gap exists between the rich and poor, highly educated and illiterates, urban and rural areas, city centers and peripheries, ruling nationality and oppressed nationalities and governing elites and the masses; democracy is just a phrase that refers to some sorts of rituals in certain intervals. These rituals include organizing 'elections', changing ruling elites in some situations and providing space to a few influential elites to bark. Moreover, the rituals also include sub-contracting or out-sourcing of state authority and functions either to crooks and cronies at various level of governance or to political as well as non-political apparatus or to powerful foreign countries. And, the slogan of democracy remains just an elitist rhetoric. Hence, E. N. Muller (1988, Democracy, Economic Development, and Income Inequality, American Sociological Review, 53, 50-68) rightly suggests that for a certain period of time, such countries need to be governed by a party which has radical change agenda to bring down the gaps to a manageable level. This tactical phase may help to build socio-political and economic infrastructure for full fledged democracy. In this context, the Maoists with their radical change agenda could have been the best political force to lead the country to narrow down the large gaps. But the Unified Maoists failed in implementing their agenda and created a situation that forced them to see the exit.

Now, the political process has proceeded to an unknown destination. The general perception is that this is nothing other than status quo ante. The new coalition has no comprehensive program (forget about the ritualistic 'common minimum program'), no cohesive functional mechanism and no credibility. They command no hope as every major party is divided into two groups involved in a fight-to-finish battle. Although, there is no commonality in regard to ideological affinity or programmatic responses, in each and every large party there are Unified Maoists' proxies and their diehard opponents. These groups are no less effective in pulling rugs under the feet of the government. The Unified Maoist-led government failed due to its over-talk and no action (except revenue generation); this government may fail due to less talk and more actions. These actions may include but not limited to daily in-house wrestling, cut-throat competition at the fertile ground of corruption and appeasement in the front of law and order so as to prolong their days in power. The angry Unified Maoists will try to bring down the government by any means at their disposal. Hence, the serenity of villages may end soon and political parties may enter into gang wars giving sleepless nights to ordinary villagers. The cities and towns are already tumultuous and chaotic, anyway.

We need radical transformation of the society. To lead the process of momentous transformation, we need strong and popular political and social forces, which have radical change agenda that addresses inequality, injustice and serious socio-economic and political gaps. Here, it would be desirable to examine the existence and roles of such forces.

The 'famous' 'Civil Society Leaders' have been busy in projecting themselves as the savior of the Nepalese nation and are busy being overly visible. This coalition of former bureaucrats, technocrats, NGO professionals and sidelined political personalities as well as unsuccessful political leaders has been making noises and is creating certain imagery that there is still space for hope from them. In essence, they could bring neither change in the fundamental base of the society nor they could influence in designing the political superstructure of a nation. At best, they can influence to this or that insignificant events or decisions of the government or a political party. Unfortunately, they are projected as supper politico-social functionaries who could influence the future course of a nation. They themselves are in such illusion. Hence, it would be a rational conclusion to see them neither as saviors nor as instrument of substantial change.

Many NGOs behave less like national socio-organizational mechanisms and function more as sub-contractors of the multilateral, bilateral and private (including northern voluntary agencies) donors. They are after green grass; and conflicts, disharmony, inequalities and injustices in Nepal are their pastures. Hence, it is only logical that they never wish to cut down the size of their pastures.

The professional organizations including lawyers association, medical association, engineers' association, university as well as school teacher associations, nurses' association etc, are among the most positive contributors in the process of change. They have contributed in the past, they are contributing most meaningfully today and we could expect they will continue to make wonderful contributions in future. The more they remain apolitical, the better. Only when a national political calamity is imminent or a dawn is at the doorstep, they are welcome to intervene in the political process directly, that too for a brief period. By and large, they did the same in the past and they are doing the same today.

The nationalities' question in Nepal is one among the unresolved issues. The activists and organizations of oppressed nationalities are involved in a tireless struggle to emancipate themselves from oppressive Khasa (Bahun, Chhetri, Thakuri and Sannesi) rule. Therefore, they are launching movements to establish autonomous regions of different nationalities. Many intellectuals and politicians, particularly of Khasa origin, are busy propagating that these movements could lead to Nepal's disintegration. Disintegration has its seeds in Khasa chauvinism and not in the oppressed nationalities' liberation endeavors. If Nepal stays stronger, it would stay stronger as the wonderful rainbow federation of different nationalities' autonomous regions/provinces/states. Hence, the forces that are spearheading these movements are contributing to the transformational process that builds a shinning Nepal. Multiculturalism and federalism are the two basic ingredients that are necessary to translate the slogan of a new Nepal into reality. The organizations leading the movements for Limbuvan, Khambuvan (or united Kirat), Madhesh, Tharuhat, Tambasaling, Tamuvan, Magarat (or united Tamumagarat), Khasan, Newa (or Nepah) are the torch bearers of multiculturalism and federalism. These endeavors deserve appreciation, support and salute.

There are political forces, which commanded strong popular support in the past, but now they are just like any other forces of status quo. The lead force in this category is none other than the "Madhesi Jan Adhikar Forum" (Madhesi People's Rights Forum). Now, Madhesi Jan Adhikar (Rights of the Madhesi people) is just a begging pot for them. But they are not small-time beggars; they ask for ministerial berths. Eventually, these forces may not lead the process of transformation as people have already seen their greed, opportunist character and betrayal of their commitment. The Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (Tarai Madhes Democratic Party) is, somehow, an exception. Until now, they have successfully maintained their image of a force, which is committed to emancipation of Madhesi people.

A taxi driver from Butwal shared his frustrations and difficulties in managing daily survival and also shed light on some hopes. After a bit long conversation, he shared a secret that they had collected some money and wanted to donate that money to Matrika Yadav. Answering my question of selecting Matrika Yadav, he told that he (Matrika Yadav) sounds the only leader today who has no personal ambition and greed. So, the taxi driver's small community of transport workers collected some money and were trying to get touch with Matrika Yadav or his comrades to hand over that money. This sounds as a petty story. But the story states that the people at grassroots know the value of integrity, sincerity, trust and courage. Now in Nepal, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the reactivated party led by Matrika Yadav is one such party with radical change agenda and also it commands credible image. The reactivated Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) could be very small at this moment, but its support base is quite large. They could grow very fast. They are rich with invaluable experiences. They need refinement, correction and realignment. Moreover, they need to develop collective leadership in place of personality cult that over emphasizes on one-man's charisma. They could be one among the major instruments of change. And, together with other progressive political as well as social forces, they may lead the course of historic transformation of the Nepalese society. Thus, the rays of hope are not vanished. The forces that are playing pivotal roles for societal transformation are not absent. Certainly, the road is rough and tough and the weather is foggy, but the caravan has been marching forward energetically.

June, 2009

Posted on www.nepalipost.com (english section/news) on June 08, 2009

New Nepal Not Yet: Mission Continues

Govinda Neupane

The declaration of Nepal as a republic had communicated the historic positive message that Nepal would enter into a new era of reconstruction that could give birth to a new beginning towards justice, equity and prosperity. It is true that within a few months nothing could be changed miraculously, but that time could be enough to consolidate hope, accelerate enthusiasm and formulate basic course to drive the nation to the right direction.

The Prime Minister sounds sensitive towards people's feelings but has shown inefficiency in addressing their needs and aspirations, pragmatically. Just nice speeches, strong threats and public posturing of statesmanship do no good if there are no actions that offer policy responses and operational arrangements. Loud talking, being emotional and doing nothing substantial could erode credibility, trust and reliability of any person including leaders. The same has happened to the Prime Minister. His image of a strong, visionary and revolutionary leader has been eroding every day. The same is true for his deputy, the scholar-politician Finance Minister. Opposite to his public image, he is busy in micro-management of economy and has degenerated himself as a tax administrator. The leadership of the government, primarily composed of these two leaders, thus, failed in generating hope and showing the seeds of a new beginning - the journey to societal transformation.

The Maoist party that has been providing leadership to the executive branch of the government has been busy in the process of self-deconstruction. Mixing sand in its fertile soil is the business what the Maoist party is busy with. The much hyped unity with the "Unity Center" is the evidence of this business. If the 'revolutionary leaders' of the CPN (UML), fringe left parties and even those of Congress would assimilate within the Maoist party, people may not be astonished, now.

The second largest party in the government, the CPN (UML) has been playing all roles, as usual. It is government. It is opposition. It is the alternative state. It is protector of the existing army. It is a bridge between opposition and government. It is everything. Hence, neither they carry credible image nor do they have courage to present themselves exactly what they are. The Maoist leadership knows this better than anybody else. Hence, neither they spend sleepless nights due to the vocal diarrhea of the UML leaders nor they are in the mood of celebration by hearing their rosy speeches.

The Congress party has never been proactive in its entire history. It is a reactive party by nature. Representing the interests of upper sections of the society, pursuing the capitalist ideology camouflaged as socialist and peddling through soft nationalism in regard to dealing with India are some of its core characteristics. Whether it is in the government or in opposition; the party doesn't change its operational modalities. It is just absent in actions related to mass awakening, people's empowerment and their wellbeing. Making its own cadres (particularly those who are around its leaders and their relatives) fat is the core business of the Congress bureaucracy. Therefore, it becomes no news when it makes no sound today.

The Madhesi parties are busy averting divisions within their own parties and among parties with the same agenda of "One Madhesh, One Pradesh (province)". They too are largely united around certain rhetoric and are happy being the champion of that rhetoric.

The parties of former royalists have nothing much to contribute to the reconstruction process and are just happy making their presence felt by attending one or the other gatherings.

The above analysis presents a gloomy picture in regard to the acts of the political actors. The loud talks of "New Nepal" and "Societal Transformation" sound just lifeless phrases.

Why all this looks like very negative phenomenon? This is not a negative interpretation of the reality. The reality itself is not illuminating. A few evidences might help to realize such phenomenon. We are having historic power-cut of 16 hours daily. The rate of inflation is above 14%. The share market has gone down by 48% in 4 months. Undisciplined ministers have finished the whole annual budget for foreign travel (allocated for the cabinet members) in less than 5 months. There is a crowd of 601 persons sitting in the International Conference Building without entering into their core business of drafting a new constitution. The drastic reduction of state presence, particularly in the countryside has resulted to near break-down of law and order. Moreover, the stated or unstated out sourcing of the state functions to vigilante groups have created multiple de-facto state actors making people most vulnerable to coercion, threats and intimidation. Hence, the central governance mechanism has been gradually loosing its control. These are just a few examples.

Why all this has been happening?

The superstructure is the reflection of the base. The fundamentals of the Nepalese society are still quite weak. A large section of the society is surviving in a situation of dire poverty. They do not have enough to eat. They have no time and resources to think about their development. The illiteracy is quite high. In such situation of illiteracy, talking about their level of critical awareness is just luxury. The child mortality, maternal mortality and average life expectancy are on the negative side. The social fabric of the society has been discriminatory in several areas, which includes but not limited to nationalities, gender, geographical region, social hierarchy including the infamous caste system. Organized social behavior is at its infancy at local level. The service delivery mechanism is either absent or non-functional in large part of the country. Therefore, the philosophically hi-tech, intellectually scholarly, attitudinally value driven and practically non-functional socio-political superstructure has failed to address the real issues not only at micro-level but also at macro-level. In such background, the political leadership is rich in distribution of dreams and strangely incompetent as well as unwilling to deliver anything substantial including policy formulations, programmatic responses, service delivery and even expressing genuinely sympathetic concerns. The Maoists during the time of "people's war" very much mobilized the people and ignited the course of societal transformation, which generated hope among the masses. But, their final journey to Singhadurbar (seat of political power in Kathmandu) under a power-sharing arrangement compelled them to abandon the course. Now, there is leadership vacuum at grassroots level. Hence, there are several splinter groups under different organizational banners competing against each other and also against the weak central government authority to rule over the territory of their influence.

Is there no hope at all?

There is hopelessness on one side, but also there is silver lining in the dark cloud. In 1951, Nepal had just one degree college. Now, within 60 years the number has jumped many folds. The same is applicable in areas of other infrastructures. Nepal is going through the process of tumultuous renewal. The governments of different times, including the one that of today, irresponsibly delayed the process of transformation. But, never have they succeeded in completely obstructing the process of change. Although, it was slow, the under-current of change never subsided. The anti-Rana rebellion of 1950s, anti-feudal Jhapa movement of 1970s, anti-Shah/Panchayat movement of 1980s, Maoists People's War of 1990s and 2000s and anti-monarchy people's movement of 2006 all added fuel in the lamp, which has been illuminating the Nepalese nation for a long time. Moreover, the lamp has been providing the light to all, who are marching forward with a desire of participating in the glorious campaign of human emancipation. Although, it is still not well organized and still lacks critical awareness, the Nepalese society is moving ahead through the processes of continuous renewal and mass awakening. The people at grassroots would continue the democratization process of their respective societies. Redistribution of power and resources has already been at the core of the grassroots agenda. Reorganization of the Nepalese society (that is free from Khasa chauvinism, male domination, internal colonization as well as regional neglect and Hindu caste hierarchy including the cruelty of untouchability) has been gaining momentum. All these factors together will contribute to build solid foundations to the new socio-political superstructures, which will ensure the success of the final leap of the reconstruction process that would crystallize democracy, social justice, basic equality and prosperity. This new leap may take several years to succeed, but certainly there would be that shinning Nepal, the new Nepal of our dream.

January 22, 2009

Nepal: Nationalism/Patriotism Revisited

- Govinda Neupane

The Nepali state had the base of 'nationalism' in the attributes as defined by the Shah rulers. These 'national' attributes included Shah-Khasa monarchy and their crown, Hindu religion and Khasa language and culture including the dress code. Their core nationality as Nepali was none other than the Khasa. Moreover, feeling of super bravery was also emotionally blended with the attributes mentioned above. Sometimes, Khukri (super knife), Mount Everest, cow, rhododendron and a few 'national' heroes were also used to boost the feeling of 'nationalism'. The theme of 'nationalism' during the Panchayat era (1960-1990) was "Our king and our country are dearer than our lives! Our language and our culture also are dearer than our lives!" This whole foundation of Khasa nationalism collapsed together with the collapse of the monarchy. The nationalism defined, nurtured and defended by the Khasa rulers also crumbled down.

Now, there is a new Nepal or a less known Nepal in regard to the collective identity of its people. What is the distinctiveness that keeps us together? Hence, an intellectually enriching debate is necessary to dig out practically relevant attributes, which provide a differently defined identity to us. These attributes are nothing other than the elements, which connect people in Nepal together and provide the collective Nepali identity. Is it nationalism or something else?

Nationalism is the collective feeling of love and loyalty of the citizens of a nation-state to their nation-state. But, Nepal was not a nation-state and it is not a nation-state even today. Nepal is a state of many nationalities. This state is multicultural and is different than the nation-states of post Second World War Europe. Therefore, in today's Nepal, not nationalism but patriotism will provide the common bond of unity in diversity. Mark, a blogger-commentator says, "Patriotism, in practice, is standing up for a shared way of life" (www. BryanAppleyard.com).

Patriotism in the context of Nepali state and its people is neither the love of a particular language nor compassion for a definite culture. Similarly, it could not revolve around a particular nationality. The same is applicable in regard to religion and customs. We are diverse. Therefore, diversity is the principle spout from where our patriotism sprinkles out.

Certainly, Nepali flag is one esteemed vehicle to show our respect to Nepal, love to Nepal and loyalty to Nepal. This is the most important symbol of Nepali identity. Similarly, the national anthem could be the other major binding factor. There are natural, historical or heritage sites, which make us proud. This is the third attribute that makes Nepali identity glittering. These sites include Mt. Everest, Lumbini, Mithila and the art as well as culture-rich Kathmandu valley. The fourth is the Nepali land mass that puts together the southern food basket, panoramic and horticulture friendly hill areas and the majestic mountains from where rivers flow and Nepali lifeline begins. The fifth is the galaxy of our heroes and heroines. The most prominent among them are Gautam Buddha, Balabahu (Arniko), Bhimsen Thapa, Lakhan Thapa Magar, Laxmi Prasad Devkota, Durgananda Jha, Ram Prasad Rai, Parijat and Pasang Lhamu Sherpa. The sixth is our multicultural social fabric - the rainbow of cultures of the smiling people of Nepal.

With the fusion of all the attributes mentioned above; we could sense the greatness of love and compassion that encompasses us as individuals, nationalities and regions. This profound feeling of oneness pervades entire Nepal. It captures the images of land, forest, rivers, snow-covered peaks and people of several distinct cultures and customs as one wonderful object. This is all inclusive, bright and eternal. This is patriotism of serene nature. And, this is the patriotism of enlightened people. Everybody, particularly our giant neighbors should understand that that serenity and enlightenment are neither the symptoms of inaction nor tolerance to injustice and subjugation. With this gentle reminder, we, the proud and enterprising Nepali people wish to live in harmony with nature and with neighbors.

August 13, 2008

Stormy Political Course and Hibernating Constituent Assembly

Govinda Neupane

Although, many historical events have happened in the recent past, the political storm in Nepal is still blowing in high speed. The election of the first president provided the opportunity to test their energy, skill and maneuverability to all political players. New to the number game and its visible rules and invisible mechanisms, the Maoists tasted the defeat. As that happens everywhere, the quality and characteristics of the Maoist leadership had to face criticism from within and outside the party rank. The critical outside world has been candid and transparent, whereas the inner Maoist world sounds semi leak-proof. May be, time will unearth the inside stories. Waiting is one of the best options available for now.

There are people highly disappointed. They have jumped to the conclusion that everything has turned to dark. There is much emotion involved in this conclusion. Nothing could be recreated in the dynamic historical process of change. History could be repeated but only in a higher spiral. Hence, neither the monarchy will resurface as a result of the division within political forces during the election of the president, nor the Maoist will head straight to the jungle.

There are the 'left' conservatives who are, once again, raising the banner of 'left unity'. They claim that there are more than 60% members from the 'left' parties and regret that they failed to elect the president from their own rank. These 'left' are highly mobile bunch of individuals and parties and shout time to time for 'left unity' when something is seen on the horizon for them to grab. In all practical sense, there is no left as such in Nepal. There are communists (e.g. Maoists, Unity-center-Mashal, Mashal), social democrats (e.g. Nepali Congress, UML, Forum), nationalists (e.g. Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Janashakti Party), and conservatives (e.g. Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal). Therefore, disunity of the 'left' is neither new nor fundamental. This phrase has just ornamental meaning in Nepali political glossary.

The third group of people is frustrated as in the land of indigenous people (Adibasi); two Madhesis became the president and vice president. This is simple. What you sow that you reap. The Madhesis created political movement and made sacrifices of unprecedented nature. They not only established themselves as a formidable political force, but also made their presence felt in the Kathmandu power corridors. The indigenous people with exception of "Limbus" and "Khambus" have been driven towards non-political entities including the Nepal Federation of the Indigenous Nationalities. They got prominence as NGOs, the darlings of the western donors. This act alone limited their role as agents of bargaining. Moreover, it took them out from the strategic role of the agents of structural change. Therefore, if the indigenous people want to play decisive role in the political process, they have to come out of the comfort zone of NGOs. Sowing the seeds of NGOs and expecting the bumper harvest of political empowerment is nearly impossible. There are good signs that the indigenous people have realized this lately and are rectifying their past mistakes. But certainly that will take time in bringing the results. The election of the chairman of the constituent assembly might have provided them some consolation.

The so-called civil society has been making noise as it failed to grab the posts of the president or vice president. The Maoist known as the party of high political substance had proposed that the post of the president should go to a civil society personality. This is not only strange but also makes no sense. In Nepal, civil society is a high-breed entity made out of people with diverse ideologies, interests and political inclinations. They sometimes try to derail the political course in the name of peace, democracy, human rights and so on. They present themselves as holier than Thou, whereas many among them are making wonderful fortunes by grabbing goodwill, grants and gifts from the rich west. A large number of such personalities are performing the roles of spokespersons of the western values, visions and missions. Their noise is just the reflection of their desire to position themselves in a strategic place so as to influence the political course once again.

The uncertainty about the formation of the government will end soon. The Maoists could play decisive role in the true meaning of contributing to the process of societal transformation, if they will stay out of the government. As a result of the intermingling and cohabitation with the parliamentary political parties; they too have been infected with the same character as that of these parties. Hence, the Maoist leadership was in a great need of shock therapy and that is there now. This shock have provided opportunity to the high flying Maoist leadership to ponder over their agenda, objectives, political line, strategies and class role. Once again, they have to knock the door of the already forgotten cadres, who in turn will ask the leadership to provide justifications for many decisions they made in the last two and a half years.

The Maoist leadership seems divided. Some of them have tasted the luxury of Kathmandu power corridors. Therefore, it would be hard to predict the immediate course the leadership will choose to proceed ahead. There are two different paths available. The first could be the path of staying in the opposition, contributing most meaningfully to the constitution making process, championing the cause of people and organizing and leading mass movements for societal transformation. This could be done through the revival of their different organizational mechanisms, particularly in the rural areas. Alternatively, they could take the path of exercising the power of the state through a formal mechanism by joining or leading the government.

The cooperation between two socialist parties, Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (UML) and their understanding with the Madhesi Jana Adhikar Form is not unnatural as claimed by the Maoists. All these three parties represent the same class interest and by and large are governed by the same political values. They also share the core principles that include pluralism, soft-nationalism and open economic environment (free and privatized). They may differ in words and formulation of sentences but agree in essence. Only one area where many people discover differences is that of 'one Madhes Pradesh'. That too is not that fundamental, which could not be reconciled. Whether that is one Madhes or there are four Madhesi provinces that would not make any fundamental difference as long as all of them enjoy full fledged autonomy. Therefore, the Maoist assessment is either flawed or that is a tactical cover to justify their demand of dissolution of such arrangement. If the Maoists join hands with one or all these three parties, in that case too the nature of the alliance will not be different. In that case, the Maoists will have to change their political line and core class nature and not the other way round.

There are two probable courses. This is primarily dependant on the content and color of the Maoists. If the Maoists will change just their color keeping their class line intact, the politics of confrontation between them and other main political parties would continue in an antagonistic way. And, if the Maoists will change their content and color, the politics of cooperation between them and other main parties will turn to be non-hostile and non-confrontational. As a result, the Maoists also will venture into the same class base as that of the Congress, UML and Forum and their transformational politico-economic and social program will end there. From that very day, they will start participating in the process of incremental change playing similar role as that of other main parties. They will take the familiar UML route. The new political contradictions originated on the basis of such course will affect the Maoists internally and may influence the course of national politics heavily. Moreover, the unpredictable political behaviors of the UML also will add fuel to fire.

Unavailability of essential commodities may give birth to mass-scale social unrest. Similarly, unprecedented price rise particularly that of the fuel and food items will add difficulties to people's livelihood. Absence of governance and near break down of law and order mechanism will further aggravate the situation. As there is anarchy everywhere and every segment of society has started to ventilate their grievances through violence, violent means and regular general strikes, the governance mechanism may be in a spiral of diminishing authority and accountability. In such situation, either a general revolt by the popular forces of that time or intervention by the army with the support from some influential foreign powers could not be ruled out.

In this context, the constitution making process may face difficulties, uncertainties and accidents. Even today, the constituent assembly is in hibernation. Hence, the political forces should play their respective natural roles to avoid full fledged political crisis. Similarly, the political forces should not fail to address the aspirations of the people. They must help them in overcoming their difficulties. They should enter into a mechanism by which they could cooperate in the constitution making process inside the constituent assembly. Giving shape and size to new autonomous regions/provinces, determining the level of shared authority between the federal government and regions, designing the operational framework of the new state system, inserting multi-cultural vision and values in the new constitution and ensuring that every citizen could enjoy fundamental rights are the core areas that the constituent assembly has to concentrate on. Therefore, rather than staging a dog-fight to grab positions in the government, it would be better to combine all efforts and energy to craft strategies that enables us to have a progressive, empowering, inclusive, democratic and libertarian republican constitution. Hence, it would be the most rewarding exercise to bring constituent assembly back in action from hibernation.

July 28, 2008

Note: The article has been posted on www.nepalipost.com.

Post-Election Nepal: Some Roses, Some Thorns

(This is the main text of my email. The email was sent to a friend on 26 April 2008.)

Govinda Neupane

The election has been over and the situation has changed quantitatively. But, by and large, that is the same. The political situation is still fluid. The Maoists have emerged as the largest party, but they are far less in number (220) than that the majority (302 seats). Their friendly parties have not more than 15 seats altogether. Therefore, political instability will continue or even worsen. The Maoists have no other option than to continue talking loudly and the NC-UML combine will remain busy ambushing them or vice versa. The market price, particularly, the price of petroleum products will add fuel to fire. The market turmoil particularly unavailability of essential commodities shall continue and the new government (whoever forms) will have to fight for their own survival rather than concentrating on constitution writing business. The people are already restive and they have been told that the constituent assembly will illuminate new Nepal. They are expecting that miracle to happen. The economic fundamentals are the same, the service delivery mechanism particularly, the bureaucracy is the same and the process of change is incremental and not radical (even if the Maoists form the government, they may not be at liberty to proceed with radical reform agenda, forget about the transformational one!). Therefore, the dreams of the people may not come true. Sooner than later, frustration and hopelessness may replace romanticism and beautiful dreams.

There are some good things too. Among them, the corrupt, incompetent, unimaginative and outdated leaders have been knocked out (people should be aware as they may come to the ring once again by one or another tricks. Sushil Koirala has already been chairing the CC meeting of the Congress party shamelessly, even after declaring his resignation from the position of acting party president!) Second, the assembly is far better inclusive. The new energy generated through the presence of women, Madhesis, Janajatis, Dalits and youths comparatively in large numbers will challenge vigorously the old Khasa-controlled, male-dominated, unproductive-outdated leaders-led and kathmandu-centric political order. Third, the monarchy has no other option than to pack up and start its journey from Narayanhiti palace to Nirmal Nivas or to a foreign country. Four, the Kathmandu elites (the so-called intellectuals including the political analysts) are far more marginalized. Five, federalism and autonomy may open up the new phenomenon where people could participate more meaningfully in the decision making process of the state.

This is what I have to share with you today.

Constituent Assembly Election: Erecting Milestone in a Rainy Day

Govinda Neupane

1. In the decade-long conflict in Nepal, three parties were involved - the monarchy, parliamentary political parties and Maoists. The popular uprising of April 2006 was effectively launched as a result of an understanding between the parliamentary political parties and the Maoists to get rid of the regressive monarchy.

The movement created some compulsions and some hype that led to a powering sharing arrangement among all three players - the king, the parliamentary political parties and the Maoists. The king agreed to go in hibernation, the parliamentary political parties agreed to share power with the Maoists and the Maoists agreed to halt their armed rebellion popularly known as people's war.

Gradually, all the political players modified their political positions and agreed to the new agenda of organizing the election of the constituent assembly to resolve the conflict and to address issues needing to build a progressive, democratic and prosperous Nepal. The core agenda of the constituent assembly opened floodgates of ideas, aspirations, demands and proposals. The agenda alone played significant role in giving birth to new movements. The issues of ethnicities/nationalities, regions, gender, class and sections got prominence. The entire society experienced upheavals of unprecedented nature, scale and intensity.

The political leadership in this historic juncture failed to lead the people proactively. As a result, there was bloodshed in several districts in Madhes and also in some places in hill areas. Also, the coalition government failed in crafting understandable strategies to govern the nation during the transitional phase.
Sometimes, the parties within the ruling coalition fought vigorously on petty issues including getting a few positions of ambassadors. Their war of words created pessimism among the people and overwhelmed them with frustrations. The behavior of the leaders of the ruling coalition was compatible to that of the king's cronies. But, the brave people fought vigorously in the building process of a new Nepal. As a result, some of the major issues were settled, at least in principle.

These issues included but not limited to the foundation of the new state as a federal democratic republic with regional autonomy. Furthermore, there is consensus on inclusiveness, gender equity, social justice and fundamental rights of the citizens.

2. Nowadays, the political atmosphere in Nepal is full of colors. The closer the day of election, the thicker are the violent behaviors of the political parties. In a single day, there are thousands of rosy speeches, hundreds of acts of threats and violence and a few deaths too.

At least, for the time being, democracy has been limited to 'winning' in the election by any means - clean or dirty. The parties and their leaders are not ready attitudinally or otherwise to participate in a process of fair competition, where people could choose their representatives. They are simply interested in imposing themselves by intimidation, false hopes and bizarre techniques. Organization of the election of the constituent assembly in a free and fair way is central to institutionalize the broadly agreed upon issues, to restructure the state by addressing practical as well as operational aspects of federalism, to formally declare Nepal a republic and to develop vision and values of the new multicultural federal state. The country at this moment has been passing through the critical phase of transition.

In a situation when creating fear, intimidating people and widespread acts of violence are the order of the day, it sounds that the election where people could exercise their right to elect the representatives of their choice is simply a mirage. Collectively as a mass, as a party, as an army; Nepali people are brave, but individually they most often become powerless, particularly when an organized force throws stone on them. Although, the percentage of people participating in the election may increase manifold in comparison to the local election organized by the king's coterie in 2005, the voters may have to face the same fate - voting to a person or party that controls their households, village or community; be it Young Communist League and its parent organization the Maoists, or the Congress and the law enforcing state machinery controlled by it or the CPN (UML) and its youth brigade.

3. Many observers are observing the election process. A few hundreds among them are the foreigners, who could play the role of covering agents to their local counterparts. Broadly speaking, they are ornaments and cosmetics. Thousands of local observers, funded by the resource-rich western charities or governments, have come from nongovernmental organizations, human right organizations, legal fraternity and temporary mechanisms created around some former judges or bureaucrats.

But, what the outside world doesn't know, or pretends ignorance is that in Nepal a cardholder of a political party has several hats and among them, the most sought after are the labels of a human right defender or an NGO activist. They are the active political cadres in disguise. The retired bureaucrats are also equally interested in getting lucrative assignments in future. There are a few exceptions, but that is too small in terms of number. Therefore, independent observation of the election is nearly impossible. Furthermore, the physical infrastructure doesn't support high mobility.

There are other factors too. Coercion takes place at household level, village level or at small towns, where no superficial mechanisms such as election observation could function in practical terms. Therefore, full scale rigging of the election through a mix of several tricks is what Nepal will experience once again. An unfortunate but good thing is that there are multiple riggers this time. The greater the rigger is, the larger the size of his/her party members in the assembly.
This phenomenon is not unique to Nepal as the same could be seen in most of the developing countries. In countries like Nepal, the social as well as political infrastructure that includes political awareness among voters is in its infancy; political culture among the political parties is in its childhood and state machineries behave as teenage hooligans. All these acts inhibit democratic practices. The same is true for Nepal. Hence, limiting expectations to the lowest level would be quite wise.

4. The above analysis presents a mixed picture. On the brighter side, the people to a large extent participated in defining the agenda and offered solutions through writings, plays, public debates, representations and popular movements. This was the most wonderful process to observe. As a result, the country will have federalism with regional autonomy.

It would be a democratic republic. First time in the history of Nepal, multiculturalism, gender equity and proportional representation system got state endorsement. This happened primarily due to the great debate centered on the agenda of the constituent assembly.

Although, there is plenty to clarify, design, develop and institutionalize; any party or parties getting any number of seats may not be at liberty to alter these basically settled issues. On the darker side, the violence has been continuing, though in different form and intensity. The resolution of the armed confrontation is still a distant dream. No one can predict that the election will end the Maoist people's war effectively. There is no probability of being the election free and fair. The election is going to be just a technical act of assembling a battalion of 601 'representatives'.

The national economy will have to bear additional burden to satisfy the needs and wants of these 'representatives'. Seeing the level of confidence among political parties, it sounds certain that no party is in a position of 'winning' a majority in the constituent assembly. All these acts of threats, intimidation and violence are nothing other than the manifestations of their weaker positions. In a way, this is good as the constitution making process will have to pass through more dialogue, debate and accommodations.

Although, composed through unfair and rigged electoral course, at least there would an assembly. That assembly could be a bit better than the existing nominated House of Representatives.

Neither Nepali people could import Nelson Mandela nor could they recreate Thomas Jefferson. Therefore, whatever they could get, they have to bring out from this battalion of 601. This is just a compulsion imposed on the Nepali people by the historical development process. Nothing is surprising as the hungry peasants eat extremely sour fruits or rotten potatoes to survive. Knowing this reality well, the people, collectively, should exert pressure on these 'representatives' to add flesh and blood on the skeleton of evenhandedness, multiculturalism and federalism by a) giving shape to provinces and determining the degree of autonomy, b) developing power sharing arrangements between the federation and the provinces, c) eradicating monarchy and settling the issue of the Presidential or Prime Ministerial form of government, d) inserting vision and values as instruments of governing culture of the new Nepali federation, e) ensuring inclusiveness by incorporating social justice issues, f) establishing rule of law and creating enough space for the judiciary where it could function independently, g) addressing issues of grassroots transformation through structural realignment, and, h) incorporating fundamental rights including right to employment, secondary level education and basic health care.

There is still some possibility of postponing the election again. If the ruling political parties will postpone the election, they will loose their credibility whatever they have now. On the other side, if the constituent assembly comes into existence, still there is no certainty that a new, prosperous, progressive and democratic Nepal will emerge through this exercise alone. But, certainly this will be a major milestone. The Nepali people should be extra careful as they are erecting the milestone in a rainy day.

Note: For more information and analysis on Constituent Assembly, interested readers are welcome to visit my website: www.neupaneg.com, blog: www.parivartannepal.blogspot.com and to read my article "Maobadi Andolan ra Sambidhan Sabhako Prastab: Mahabadvibadko Khancho" published in Himal Khabar Patrika, www.nepalihimal.com/2057/falgun1-15-2057


Posted on: www.nepalipost.com on March 29,2008