Stormy Political Course and Hibernating Constituent Assembly

Govinda Neupane

Although, many historical events have happened in the recent past, the political storm in Nepal is still blowing in high speed. The election of the first president provided the opportunity to test their energy, skill and maneuverability to all political players. New to the number game and its visible rules and invisible mechanisms, the Maoists tasted the defeat. As that happens everywhere, the quality and characteristics of the Maoist leadership had to face criticism from within and outside the party rank. The critical outside world has been candid and transparent, whereas the inner Maoist world sounds semi leak-proof. May be, time will unearth the inside stories. Waiting is one of the best options available for now.

There are people highly disappointed. They have jumped to the conclusion that everything has turned to dark. There is much emotion involved in this conclusion. Nothing could be recreated in the dynamic historical process of change. History could be repeated but only in a higher spiral. Hence, neither the monarchy will resurface as a result of the division within political forces during the election of the president, nor the Maoist will head straight to the jungle.

There are the 'left' conservatives who are, once again, raising the banner of 'left unity'. They claim that there are more than 60% members from the 'left' parties and regret that they failed to elect the president from their own rank. These 'left' are highly mobile bunch of individuals and parties and shout time to time for 'left unity' when something is seen on the horizon for them to grab. In all practical sense, there is no left as such in Nepal. There are communists (e.g. Maoists, Unity-center-Mashal, Mashal), social democrats (e.g. Nepali Congress, UML, Forum), nationalists (e.g. Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Janashakti Party), and conservatives (e.g. Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal). Therefore, disunity of the 'left' is neither new nor fundamental. This phrase has just ornamental meaning in Nepali political glossary.

The third group of people is frustrated as in the land of indigenous people (Adibasi); two Madhesis became the president and vice president. This is simple. What you sow that you reap. The Madhesis created political movement and made sacrifices of unprecedented nature. They not only established themselves as a formidable political force, but also made their presence felt in the Kathmandu power corridors. The indigenous people with exception of "Limbus" and "Khambus" have been driven towards non-political entities including the Nepal Federation of the Indigenous Nationalities. They got prominence as NGOs, the darlings of the western donors. This act alone limited their role as agents of bargaining. Moreover, it took them out from the strategic role of the agents of structural change. Therefore, if the indigenous people want to play decisive role in the political process, they have to come out of the comfort zone of NGOs. Sowing the seeds of NGOs and expecting the bumper harvest of political empowerment is nearly impossible. There are good signs that the indigenous people have realized this lately and are rectifying their past mistakes. But certainly that will take time in bringing the results. The election of the chairman of the constituent assembly might have provided them some consolation.

The so-called civil society has been making noise as it failed to grab the posts of the president or vice president. The Maoist known as the party of high political substance had proposed that the post of the president should go to a civil society personality. This is not only strange but also makes no sense. In Nepal, civil society is a high-breed entity made out of people with diverse ideologies, interests and political inclinations. They sometimes try to derail the political course in the name of peace, democracy, human rights and so on. They present themselves as holier than Thou, whereas many among them are making wonderful fortunes by grabbing goodwill, grants and gifts from the rich west. A large number of such personalities are performing the roles of spokespersons of the western values, visions and missions. Their noise is just the reflection of their desire to position themselves in a strategic place so as to influence the political course once again.

The uncertainty about the formation of the government will end soon. The Maoists could play decisive role in the true meaning of contributing to the process of societal transformation, if they will stay out of the government. As a result of the intermingling and cohabitation with the parliamentary political parties; they too have been infected with the same character as that of these parties. Hence, the Maoist leadership was in a great need of shock therapy and that is there now. This shock have provided opportunity to the high flying Maoist leadership to ponder over their agenda, objectives, political line, strategies and class role. Once again, they have to knock the door of the already forgotten cadres, who in turn will ask the leadership to provide justifications for many decisions they made in the last two and a half years.

The Maoist leadership seems divided. Some of them have tasted the luxury of Kathmandu power corridors. Therefore, it would be hard to predict the immediate course the leadership will choose to proceed ahead. There are two different paths available. The first could be the path of staying in the opposition, contributing most meaningfully to the constitution making process, championing the cause of people and organizing and leading mass movements for societal transformation. This could be done through the revival of their different organizational mechanisms, particularly in the rural areas. Alternatively, they could take the path of exercising the power of the state through a formal mechanism by joining or leading the government.

The cooperation between two socialist parties, Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal (UML) and their understanding with the Madhesi Jana Adhikar Form is not unnatural as claimed by the Maoists. All these three parties represent the same class interest and by and large are governed by the same political values. They also share the core principles that include pluralism, soft-nationalism and open economic environment (free and privatized). They may differ in words and formulation of sentences but agree in essence. Only one area where many people discover differences is that of 'one Madhes Pradesh'. That too is not that fundamental, which could not be reconciled. Whether that is one Madhes or there are four Madhesi provinces that would not make any fundamental difference as long as all of them enjoy full fledged autonomy. Therefore, the Maoist assessment is either flawed or that is a tactical cover to justify their demand of dissolution of such arrangement. If the Maoists join hands with one or all these three parties, in that case too the nature of the alliance will not be different. In that case, the Maoists will have to change their political line and core class nature and not the other way round.

There are two probable courses. This is primarily dependant on the content and color of the Maoists. If the Maoists will change just their color keeping their class line intact, the politics of confrontation between them and other main political parties would continue in an antagonistic way. And, if the Maoists will change their content and color, the politics of cooperation between them and other main parties will turn to be non-hostile and non-confrontational. As a result, the Maoists also will venture into the same class base as that of the Congress, UML and Forum and their transformational politico-economic and social program will end there. From that very day, they will start participating in the process of incremental change playing similar role as that of other main parties. They will take the familiar UML route. The new political contradictions originated on the basis of such course will affect the Maoists internally and may influence the course of national politics heavily. Moreover, the unpredictable political behaviors of the UML also will add fuel to fire.

Unavailability of essential commodities may give birth to mass-scale social unrest. Similarly, unprecedented price rise particularly that of the fuel and food items will add difficulties to people's livelihood. Absence of governance and near break down of law and order mechanism will further aggravate the situation. As there is anarchy everywhere and every segment of society has started to ventilate their grievances through violence, violent means and regular general strikes, the governance mechanism may be in a spiral of diminishing authority and accountability. In such situation, either a general revolt by the popular forces of that time or intervention by the army with the support from some influential foreign powers could not be ruled out.

In this context, the constitution making process may face difficulties, uncertainties and accidents. Even today, the constituent assembly is in hibernation. Hence, the political forces should play their respective natural roles to avoid full fledged political crisis. Similarly, the political forces should not fail to address the aspirations of the people. They must help them in overcoming their difficulties. They should enter into a mechanism by which they could cooperate in the constitution making process inside the constituent assembly. Giving shape and size to new autonomous regions/provinces, determining the level of shared authority between the federal government and regions, designing the operational framework of the new state system, inserting multi-cultural vision and values in the new constitution and ensuring that every citizen could enjoy fundamental rights are the core areas that the constituent assembly has to concentrate on. Therefore, rather than staging a dog-fight to grab positions in the government, it would be better to combine all efforts and energy to craft strategies that enables us to have a progressive, empowering, inclusive, democratic and libertarian republican constitution. Hence, it would be the most rewarding exercise to bring constituent assembly back in action from hibernation.

July 28, 2008

Note: The article has been posted on www.nepalipost.com.