Spring Thunder In Nepal: glorious but inconclusive

- Govinda Neupane

Once, I was in Phalaicha village, near Chyangthapu in northern Panchthar. I saw large plots of fertile land where paddy was ready to harvest. In a mountainous region, it was something special. During discussions with the villagers, I found out that most of the plots belonged to the Khas (the ruling nationality in Nepal) families, though they were a tiny minority there.

After a few years, I saw the same phenomenon in Zimbabwe. Nearly all arable land had been captured by the white farmers. The sugarcane fields, fruit farms and maize or vegetable cultivations belonged to the Whites, whereas the black Zimbabweans had to satisfy with less fertile communal land or they had to survive in the patches of the bush.

Why the Khasas in Phalaicha and the Whites in Zimbabwe had the ownership over the most fertile land, though they were a tiny minority? Also, they had migrated much later than the indigenous people who cleared the forests, developed technologies appropriate to their time and started cultivations. This is a fundamental question. The class composition and nationality or racial dominance of a state structure, which controls power, makes all difference.

The same happened before, during and after the Spring Thunder of 2006 in Nepal. Hundreds of thousands of people, particularly from the rural areas waged relentless struggle for more than a decade. Their resolute struggle gave birth to a bigger force and that force reached to the urban centers and resulted to a massive popular movement. Also, the parliamentary parties and the urban middle class joined the movement after the royal coup of February 2005. Those were the glorious days when hundreds of thousands of people marched in the cities and towns all over Nepal and the villages sent their beloved daughters and sons to create the Spring Thunder. After the conclusion of the popular movement with partial success in April 2006, the late comers not only claimed victory but also grabbed opportunities. The urban middle class intellectuals, both who participated in the movement and who stayed away, have been celebrating victory and forwarding their wish list for the encashment of benefits. The workers, mostly from informal sectors have gone back to their work places as without work they can not survive. The poor and landless peasants or the agriculture workers who came to encircle the capital city and district HQs have gone back to their respective villages to work in the field again as an agriculture worker or as a militia or as a political activist or something else. The agitators, who had no shoes on their feet or no proper dresses to cover their bodies, were the driving force of the mass movement. But, they are no more in the picture. They are neither in the cabinet nor in the parliament nor in the august gatherings in the convention halls of the star graded hotels. A different lot is staking claim that democracy is their child. The political leaders from the parliamentary 'mainstream' have started to clean up their faces by making changes primarily directed towards adjustments within their ruling coalition, which includes the monarchy. Rather than accepting the simple fact that the people are sovereign and letting them decide through the constituent assembly what they want, they are trying to create comfortable space for themselves through parliamentary decrees. They have to concentrate on making arrangements for a period covering from the time they took over the state power to the election of the constituent assembly. Also, they have to create conducive environment for the election. But, they are behaving, as if, their parliament is immortal and they are one with the mandate to rule forever. They are already in the business of blame-game. They are blaming the Maoists for collecting donations or recruiting people in their army. They are blaming not only other parties within the ruling coalition but also the other factions of their own parties. Perhaps, negative energy is their strength and they are busy generating the same.

It is strange when they deliver lectures on parliamentary supremacy. By proclaiming ‘supremacy of the parliament’, they are intending to tame the king. In reality, they themselves saved the seat of the monarch. They are also creating environment to tame the Maoists. For this purpose, they are trying to play the role and exercise the authority of the constituent assembly through their ‘supreme’ parliament. The people on the street were demanding the establishment of a progressive democratic republic of Nepal, whereas they got the restoration of the parliament. The people fought for a long time for fundamental socio-political and economic transformation, whereas they got nothing which could substantially changes power relationships at the grassroots and above. Although, declaring Nepal a secular state is a change in positive direction, other changes are far less than the expectations of the people. Rather than going through a surgical process to remove the brain tumor, the parliamentary parties opted for simple medication. Anyway, the parliamentary political forces represent the upper class. Therefore, it is certain that the people should rise once again to address the transformational issues. Hence, another agitation to transform the society and change the power relationship has become imminent. When the people rise, they rise as a tide and break the barriers made out of any material. The parliamentary leaders should understand this simple fact. Not their ‘parliamentary supremacy’, but the people power will decide the future course of Nepal. These parliamentary leaders, the supper Gods of democracy, failed to understand or accept this simple fact.

There are two major fronts to concentrate on to make changes – the superstructure and grassroots. The supreme sacrifice of thousands of people during the decade starting 1996 was neither for replacing one lot of corrupts with another set of corrupts nor it was for providing opportunity to foreign forces to have a field-day. The same personalities, who looted the country, played with national interests and misused power to its extreme, are holding the state power today. They are a bit different in form than those actors of the royal regime but they are the same in essence in regard to the ruling culture, class and philosophical paradigm. They have already got more than what they were aspiring and clinging to it is what they will try for. Therefore, from now on, talking big and blocking the fundamental changes would be the business of these politicians of the parliamentary school. The ruling political class will talk loudly about constituent assembly and will put all energy to strengthen the restored parliament to achieve the goal of maintaining the status quo. Moreover, they will try to restore the dissolved local bodies to improve their access to local levels. Basically, maintaining the status quo that they have decreed through the restored parliament is the goal, program and policy of these 'mainstream' political forces and their role and behaviors will stay around this goal. Therefore, neither they will change the superstructure fundamentally nor the base. Although, they have curtailed the power of the monarchy to a great extent, it is foolish to believe that the patient never returns back from the ICU. Perhaps, the parliamentary leaders also know this fact. Therefore, in some extreme situation, they may opt for a republic. Still, fundamentally and pragmatically, Nepal will continue to be an upper class Khas state. The talk of restructuring the state could be a ploy to pacify the mass anger and not for really to establish cooperative federalism with national autonomy granted to the extent of right to self-determination including the right of secession, if the people of a particular autonomous region wish so. If the leaders of the seven-party alliance would be committed on restructuring the state, they could have outlined the core components of their proposal in their ‘parliamentary proclamation’. But, they didn’t do.

Now, the constituent assembly has replaced the ‘powerful’ Hindu Gods. It is strange but true that worshipping the constituent assembly has become a regular feature. The royalists, ‘mainstream’ politicians, intellectuals, civil society barons and media heavyweights all are chanting the hymns in praise of the constituent assembly. Why so? It is easier to derail the process from within. There are only a few among the above mentioned groups who may be genuinely interested to go for the real democratic exercise to establish a progressive democratic republican state order. Therefore, the so-called national consensus on holding the election of the constituent assembly may not necessarily provide synergy only for forward movement. The situation is fluid and complex and it is natural that the Maoists will maintain their army and even they may expand and strengthen their fighting capacity.

What next then? Probably, the actors of the royal regime will go on hibernation and wait for an opportune moment to bounce back. The masters of the parliamentary stream will try to establish themselves effectively. Although, there could be a honeymoon phase between the parliamentary forces and the Maoists, but that will not last long. Even if there is an interim government participated in by the Maoist that too would be a temporary arrangement. The class contradiction, incompatible ideological paradigms and fundamentally different strategic missions will not allow them to stay together for a long time. Therefore, if the election of the constituent assembly will not be organized immediately, forget about addressing the transformational issues and designing a political system by the parliamentary forces and the Maoists together. Most probably, the parliamentary forces may not behave differently in strategic sense than that what they did in the past. They will try to prolong the life of the reinstated parliament and thus, their own government. They will rule in the cities and towns for fairly a long time. The Maoists will rule the villages and remote areas directly and will rule over the cities and towns indirectly, also for fairly a long time. They will stay away from Kathmandu as that will be some sort of insurance against foreign military invasion. Hence, the absolute desire for peace shall not materialize provided that the Maoists do not degenerate or northern India does not come under effective Maoist influence, which shall enable the Maoists in Nepal to capture the central state power or the Maoists are not defeated militarily. Most likely, the common men and women who are aspiring for peace through the election of the constituent assembly will be frustrated, the merchants of peace will sell even the derailed process to build their own future and the political forces will constantly fight for supremacy till two separate governance systems will remain in practice. Unifying the governance systems will be a strategic goal for both, the Maoists and the parliamentary forces. That goal could be realized through the election of the constituent assembly, which might address the transformational politico-economic and social issues. But, this option is passing through the process of serious derailment. Some of the ministers and the ambassadors of the influential countries have already put the demand forward that the Maoist should renounce violence and lay down their arms before the election of the assembly. This demand is the key to derailment. Alternatively, the goal of unifying the governance systems could be realized by the victory of one ruling side. Therefore, the polarization between the parliamentary forces and the Maoists sounds imminent. Hence, in all probability, the people have to live in a situation of civil war till the unjust upper class Khas rule becomes history.

The article has been posted on www.blog.com.np and www.nepalresearch.com
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