Thursday, August 24, 2006

Madhesis: colonial subjects or masters of their own destiny?

- Govinda Neupane

The population of the Madhesis as per the national census - 2001 is 7,169,109. (This is the combined figure of all Madhesi groups. For details, please see my book "Nepalko Jatiya Prashna", second edition, 2005). The figure reveals that the Madhesi is the largest nationality in Nepal.

The feudal principalities in Madhes and hills together formed today's Nepal. This did not happen voluntarily (e.g. USA), neither this is the outcome of entirely a colonial adventure (e.g. India). It has a long history of several principalities coming together and breaking the bond, and repeating the process, several times. In the ancient times, the Kirats ruled the central and eastern hill areas. There were several small feudal principalities or republics at the southern region spread over either side of Nepal-India boarder.

In Madhes, the first known republics included Moriya republic (believed existed around present Piprahawa in Lumbini), Koliya republic (Ramgram and Devdaha), Brijji or Bajji republic (central Tarai) Cheti republic (central Tarai), Shakya republic (Kapilvastu), Pabbat Rattha (around Janakpur), Videha or Mithila (Jankpur), etc. Historians believe that these republics had existed in different times before Christ (Jagadish Chandra Regmi, 2026 V.S., pp 87-94, Ratna Pustak Bhandar, Kathmandu). For the happenings during the middle age, there is nothing meaningful that has been written to shed light on Madhes, other than a few stories related to swallowing the Madhesi territory by Kirats in the east, Sens in the central region and Khasas in the west. During the time of Gorkha-led military campaign, all parts of today's Nepal had merged together. Thus, Nepal as a state came into existence.

Although, politically and administratively the entire Madhes region was merged, but psychologically and socially, it remained distinct and different. The Khas rulers in Kathmandu treated the Madhesi people as second class citizens or colonial subjects, suspected on their loyalty to Nepal and suppressed them particularly in four areas as mentioned below.

1) Denying employment in the army overtly, and other government services covertly,

2) Disempowering through restrictions in the use of their languages in education and official works and discouraging the practice of their customs (e.g. official dress code),

3) Capturing their land in the name of Birta, Jagir, Rajguthi/Devguthi, land reform, etc and distributing to feudal lords, priests, courtiers, government employees and Hindu Gods/Goddesses from the hills, and

4) Denying many people their citizenship right.

The Khas rulers and their hill brethren behaved in a way that they had occupied, both, the land and people of Madhes. As a result, the Madhesis had to suffer economically, politically, socially and emotionally.

Now, the government has decided that they will be open to recruit the Madhesi youths in the army. At least, in theory, this discrimination has been ended.

The issue of language is being hotly debated. It could be settled in the near future by the constituent assembly or parliament.

The issue of land has not been debated yet that much but this could be a major issue in future. How the Madhesis could get back their captured or confiscated land? The land they sold is not theirs, but the land taken forcibly from them using the state power should go back to them. The land confiscated by the government stating that that was beyond the ceiling had to be distributed among the landless Madhesi people themselves. But, such land was mostly distributed to 'landless' middle class government employees from the hills, particularly of Khas origin. Therefore, the Rajguthi, Devguthi, Jagir and Birta lands should be thoroughly studied together with the land distributed to 'landless' government officials or their cronies during the land reform period. The whole exercise could contribute to develop a mechanism, which will enable the Madhesis to get back their land other than that what they had sold.

The issue of citizenship is being fiercely debated for several decades. But the Khas rulers in Kathmandu have done nothing other than to suppress the legitimate demand. For the hill people in general, and the Khas ruler and their henchmen in particular, the issue sounds as distribution of the citizenship right to the Indians. For many of them, the hill faces are Nepalese and the Madhesi faces are Indian. This is the racist attitude of the worst type. Also, the hill people who believe in equity and justice should fight resolutely by standing together with the Madhesis against this racism. As far as the solution of the citizenship issue is concerned, there are three types of opinions or approaches - denial, piecemeal and holistic. The persons or organizations belonging to the first type pretend that there is no such issue or at least that is not an important issue. Therefore, denying in one or other pretext has been their business. They even blame that the issue has communal angle or this is an Indian agenda. The second types accept that there is the problem but propose solutions in piecemeal and say that let's solve the problem on the basis of the voter list of 1963 or 1980 or 1990. Is this a search for solution or a creation of new problems? This could appease some, but may not address the problem in its totality. The persons or organizations belonging to the third type are in favor of solving this problem through a campaign by sending teams of government officials to visit residences, count heads, enlist all citizens who do not have citizenship certificate, investigate any complications then and there, and issue temporary certificate that could be converted into permanent one after attaching a photograph and signing by the authority at a later date convenient to that citizen. If there are a few complicated cases, the documents could be submitted to the courts or special courts for decision. Statehood is a fundamental right and by denying that right to its citizens, the Nepalese state has been violating the law. This is the time to honor the fundamental right. Therefore, the citizenship campaign should be started immediately and should be completed before the election of the constituent assembly. Not only to ensure the participation of all people in the election but also to provide justice through inclusion; the citizenship campaign in the Madhes region should get priority.

Now, there must not be a ruling nationality. There must not be a subject nationality. In this situation, the Madhesis together with other oppressed nationalities deserve equitable share in every sphere of national life. They are the masters of their own destiny. They certainly could retaliate angrily if treated as colonial subjects as in the past. They would feel proud as partners in development of Nepal as this is their motherland. The process of building a dream Nepal has already begun. In fact, if we are going to build an egalitarian, democratic and prosperous Nepal, we must off load the burden of the past, must address the burning issues of the people and nationalities and must initiate the building process through inclusion and partnership. Considering the diverse socio-geographic realities in Nepal, inclusion and partnership could be realized by addressing the grievances of people and opening up opportunities for them in a broad framework that has its foundation on multiculturalism and federalism.
August 24, 2006

Sunday, August 20, 2006

A Brief Note on NGOs and Civil Society Representation

- Govinda Neupane

Nepal has a long history of voluntary services. During the initial stage of civilization, the people had some sorts of social organizations, which were called "Sithi", "Guthi", "Nangkhur", "Chumlung", "Noghar", "Bheja", "Khel", etc. These were loosely connected social agencies. They mobilized masses in civic tasks. They were the first generation social organizations.

The second generation organizations included Arya Samaj, Mahila Samiti (Women's Committee), Gorkha League, Nepal Charkha Pracharak Gandhi Smarak Mahaguthi (Gandhi Memorial Trust for Propagating Spinning in Nepal) popularly known as "Mahaguthi", Nepal Nagarik Adhikar Samiti (Committee for Civil Rights in Nepal), Paropakar Sanstha (Welfare Association), etc. These organizations played significant roles in making people aware, extending services and availing skills for making the life of disadvantaged families a bit better.

The third generation organizations had clear orientation on service delivery. The well known organizations in this category included Nepal Tuberculosis Control Association, Nepal Family Planning Association, Nepal Red Cross Society, Nepal Leprosy Control Association, etc. These organizations were established primarily to mobilize local and foreign donations to supplement the government programs. Therefore, they were not non-government, but semi-government organizations by nature.

The fourth generation organizations could be categorized in five groups - 1) civil society groups, 2) service contract agencies, 3) social business ventures, 4) professional associations, and 5) donor's children.

1) Among the civil society groups, there are hundreds of local organizations and initiatives, and a few large conglomerations such as Community Forest User's Federation. These groups are certainly the voluntary agencies and initiatives. Their primary mission is to help themselves, collectively. Although, they may implement some activities and projects by contracting from the donors, but that is not the place where their soul rests at. They are motivated by the zeal to do something good for their community and also for others, if and when possible. They may be small, but putting all of them together, they are the largest group within non-government social sector in Nepal.

2) The service contract agencies pretend that they are part of the larger civil society, whereas their primary motivation is to getting contracts for implementing projects in many areas such as installing physical facilities, delivering services, running political campaigns that may include but not limited to human rights, child rights, minority rights, women's rights, civil rights, strengthening democracy, etc. As there are large agencies within this group, it makes tall claim of civil society leadership. The service contract agencies are much more vulnerable in making compromises with the funding agencies, particularly with the foreign governmental agencies. Sometimes, they play with the image of the nation and dignity of its people. They may not hesitate to project Nepal as a country of traffickers or child solders or drug addicts as long as there is money in dollar bills available for them under these banners. Another dimension of the functioning of these agencies also raises question on their credibility as social organizations. In fact, most of them have been functioning as sister organizations of certain political parties, clandestinely. Many agencies in this group are led by either a political leader with open political identity or a person, whose political affinity to a particular party is well known. Therefore, if someone has misunderstood them and is expecting their neutral role, that person could only be frustrated.

3) The practitioners of the social business ventures are clear on their mission that they will work outside the government system, but provide the same services at reasonable cost and with better quality. The Public Health Concern Trust (PHECT) and its Model Hospital could be one such example. (But, the private nursing homes and private hospitals are not social business ventures, they are outright private businesses.) The social business ventures are transparent and they do not make tall claims too. They are simply healthy institutions, socially.

4) The professional associations work in the best interest of their respective professionals. Sometimes, they extend support to other professionals and fellow citizens as well when there is a great need of their support. A few prominent associations in this group include Nepal Medical Association, Nepal Engineering Association, Nepal Nursing Association, Nepal University Teachers' Association, Nepal Teachers' Union, Nepal Bar Association, etc. These associations are the glorious organizations for the respective professionals and also are the gems of the Nepalese nation.

5) The group comprising of donors' children is busy minting money. In this group, there are two types of children - biological and foster. Either the donors gave birth or they adopted. The donors' children have very good antennas and also are blessed with wonderful sense of smell. They could spot out the availability of fund for a particular activity from a distance of thousands of kilometers. These groups may call themselves as research organizations, conflict prevention groups, peace promoters, anticorruption campaigners, democracy defenders, environment protection angels, friends of internally displaced people, community support organizations etc, but they are dependant on the availability of donor's fund and are ready to put everything under donors' wishes. They utilize such funds on donors' plans and take a large pie of the cake for themselves. These groups are not different than the riflemen/women at Chhauni (army training center/field). Both of them parade. But, the Chhauni group parades in uniform in front of their officers in public, whereas the donor's children parade in civilian dresses in front of their donors in private. The Chhauni group parades to ensure survival of their families, whereas the donor's children parade for arranging luxury, comfort, prestige and power. It is nonsense on the part of common men and women to expect from them meaningful contributions to lessen the burden of fellow citizens. It is strange to watch when they portrait themselves as Messiah of the Masses and the Savior of the Nation!

All five groups mentioned above are non-government organizations. Therefore, there is nothing wrong to say them as non-government. But, when their nature and roles are under scrutiny, they are different.

Recently, it has been in discussion that one third of the members in the interim legislature and interim government should go to civil society. In this context, it becomes necessary to understand the civil society in specific term. One has to be clear that the Donor's children are not part of the civil society, nor are the service contract agencies. Similarly, the social business ventures also may not qualify. There may or may not be unanimity about the professional associations. Hence, if there is agreement to give the civil society some representation in the interim arrangement, only civil society groups and conglomerations (also professional associations?) should get consideration from non-government social sector together with other civil society actors such as media. In fact, the legislation and execution of the state function is the area of expertise and responsibility of the politicians and political parties. Therefore, it is strange to give representation to civil society as a combined formation in the legislative and executive. This proposal either considers the so-called civil society organizations (particularly, service contract agencies and donors' children) and their executives as political parties and political leaders respectively or forwards no confidence motion against the political parties and political leaders of the country.

The Philippine Experience: a few lessons for the Nepalese Communists

Govinda Neupane

In the Philippines, 1986 was very much an eventful year. I was in Manila in the month of October and got the opportunity to participate in an international solidarity conference organized by the Philippine Peasant Organization (KMP). In Tai-Tai Rizal, the foreign delegates and the guests had been experiencing the thrill not only because they were expressing their solidarity with the Philippine peasants but also knowing that they were surrounded by the New People's Army (NPA) plain-cloths. Jose Maria Sison, the founding Chairman of the Communist Party of the Philippines, had addressed the conference. He was just released a few months back from detention. Comrade Barnaby (I might have wrongly spelt his name) was another notable figure. He was the former commander-in-chief of the NPA and had been recently released from detention. I also met Comrade Jeremy. He was a former politburo member of the Communist Party and had come out of the prison after the overthrow of Marcos regime. He was, at that time, functioning as the General Secretary of the Partido ng Bayan (People's Party). Some Filipino friends told me that the party was an over-ground outfit of the Communist Party. There was Senator Tanada, the Grand Old Man who was leading the Bayan (People's) movement at the age of 88. I met him briefly. Dr. Devbrat of the Indian Workers Federation affiliated to the Communist Party of India (ML-Santosh Rana group) and the popular Filipino singer Jess Santiago together with some unknown underground Filipino communist operatives helped me to avail the wonderful opportunities. I was spellbound knowing comrade Sison's in-depth knowledge of the movements in Nepal. He was even aware of the major events of that time in our country.

During the period of my stay, I interacted with several ordinary people on the street. The wife of my good friend Jess had stopped paying back the bank loan concluding that within a few months, the Communists will take over the state power and she will escape from that burden. Her expectation was that the Communists will out-right cancel all loans. She was not alone. Several people in metro Manila were too eager to welcome the NPA. Some of them shared with me that the rural folks were fortunate than the urbanites as in rural areas the NPA had liberated the masses already.

In the October 18th solidarity procession, nearly half a million people marched up to the road linking to Malakanang palace (Presidential residence). The police blocked the road with tons of barbed wire. The participants from rural Philippines were more vocal in opposing the Aquino government as her family had thousands of hectors of hacienda farms. Aquino, her brother and their families were considered as oppressors. Also, the Marcos' bad boy Enrile (former defense minister) was the minister in Aquino government. This was another irritant for the urban masses. They hated him too much. The common men and women on the street were excited, optimistic and confident. I, a foreigner with a limited information base, was also emotionally with them.

Comrade Sison was hopeful. He was telling that something might happen in the near future. The favorable environment created by the 'People Power' movement had softened the thinking and practice of several leaders. Comrade Jeremy was also optimistic, though not as much as Comrade Sison. Former Commander-in-chief of the NPA, comrade Barnaby was a lone voice who shared his opposition to the political line of putting too much emphasis on mass movements and intermingling with bourgeoisie forces including Senator Tanada's Bayan movement.

The Grand Old Man of the Philippine movement, Senator Tanada, is no more. The Partido ng Bayan is either not functioning or not effective. The Bayan movement also degenerated to spontaneous level. Nobody knows outside NPA and the communist party rank, what was the number of NPA fighters during its heyday. The people were speculating as their number around 35000. The number was drastically reduced during 90s. After so many meetings with bourgeoisie political forces, Sison himself had to go to the Netherlands. Now, the Philippine communists have the bitter experience to analyze and to learn lessons from. They have to rejuvenate their energy, organization and glory once again.

There could be several factors for the set back the Philippine communists had to suffer from. Certainly among them, perhaps, the most critical ones are the softening of their political stand and neglecting establishing and strengthening their base areas. And, not so insignificant role had been played by the 'friendly bourgeoisie forces' including the innocent Senator Tanada in this process.

If some one draws a parallel between the Philippines of the mid 1980's and today's Nepal, he or she will find out that the level of optimism among the people is similar and the political environment is also similar with specific differences created by the local conditions. And, if the impact would be similar, then that would be a great leap backward for the communist movement.

Now, in Nepal, many new Tanadas are stepping in, new Bayan movement is taking shape and new situation has emerged. Most of the Nepali Tanadas, both individual politicians and parties, have been seen in their third political incarnation. They were baby-Tanadas up to 1990. Since 1990, they turned to be a mini-Marcos together with his concert - the iron butterfly with several pairs of shoes made out of gold. They stayed like him for about a dozen of years. Now, they have turned to take the path of agitation. They may play important role by accepting and staying firm on the demand of the constituent assembly. Also, it would be childish to believe that they may not start playing on the hands of the foreign forces and the forces of the reaction inside. Anyway, they represent not the peasants and workers but the upper classes.

Now, the Maoists are in a situation of great dilemma. If they will soften their political stand, they may have the same future as the Philippine communist had seen in 90s. If they choose to stay away from the 'friendly bourgeoisie political forces', the direct foreign interference is nearly impossible to prevent. On the other side, if they stay positive to foreign intermingling and local bourgeoisie hobnobbing, they may have the same future as that of CPN-UML and if they oppose them, they may have to face a combined attack of the unified forces of internal and external reaction. How they will successfully bailout themselves from the complex situation they themselves initiated for? Many people talk about negotiation and a negotiated settlement of the conflict. Is that attainable? The answer is too difficult seeing the nature of the conflict. It has the class factor at its core. The prevailing social and economic contradictions are the causes of the political confrontation. Hence, the social and economic contradictions between antagonistic classes are the root causes of the political conflict. Therefore, without addressing the causes of the socio-economic and political contradictions; the conflict could not be resolved.

The 'negotiation exercises' would just prolong the resolution or help to degenerate a political force on the long run or help to rearrange combat capacities of the warring parties by giving some breather to reconnect the supply lines, training their cadres or army men and women and conducting political propaganda. Therefore, 'negotiation for peace' is just an abstract phrase. Similarly, negotiation for power sharing shall have no impact on strategic issues. Any serious attempt to artificially restore peace without addressing the transformational issues is unsustainable and any power sharing arrangement without participation and endorsement of the people through the expression of their General Will is undemocratic. In this context, if the Maoists will soften their political stand due to the association with the indigenous Tanadas, they may initiate their weakening process themselves. At the same time, continuing the association with them could be beneficial for the societal transformation till the 'friendly bourgeoisie political forces' agree and stay firm on the demand of the election of the constituent assembly.

As a progressive political force, it would be better if the Maoists learn from the Philippine experience. Hence, they should be firm on their political stand (for example, constituent assembly and progressive democratic republic of Nepal), should stay away from foreign influence, particularly of the big powers (both, regional and global) and should initiate democratic innovations. Hence, they have to work in collaboration with the people to design the structure and values of the governance system that promotes constitutionally mandated nature of state, which overtly favors working classes, disadvantaged nationalities, sections and groups, and minorities. Moreover, the state system must be compatible to pluralism, federalism, autonomy for nationalities, competitive democracy, social justice and wealth creation as well as equitable distribution. Thus, the political structure, state values and policy instruments should ensure social transformation and national prosperity. The experiments could be carried out in the geographical pockets of their influence by establishing and strengthening the base areas. They should refrain from being over confident and should stay away from any loss making hobnobbing particularly with the 'friendly bourgeoisie forces'. They should certainly promote and protect the social, economic and political rights of the working classes, minorities and socially excluded sections of the society. Otherwise, they will have no different future than that of the Philippine Communists of the mid-80s or than that of our own high-flying club of bourgeoisie comrades – the UML. Hopefully, the Maoists will examine all available options and course of actions critically, pragmatically and strategically.

(Note: The article was written in March 27, 2006 before the popular movement or the Spring Thunder in Nepal. I just like to add here that the Maoists should be more creative and imaginative but they should avoid swinging to right or 'left' directions. Tactically, utilizing the opportunities created by the movement and strategically, resolutely staying on their main course is what, probably, the working class people not only in Nepal but also all over the world expect from them.)
The artical has been posted on www.nepalresearch.com

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Nepal Reality Check: serene villages and tumultuous towns?

Nepal Reality Check: moving towards serene villages and tumultuous towns?

- Govinda Neupane

The fundamental issues of the villages have been broadly addressed. The exploitative behaviors may still be continuing, but that is not a general trend. The productive forces may still not be freed in the true sense of its meaning, but the freedom march has already been started. The criminal caste system, Khas domination and gender stereotypes may still be continuing, but the village communities have discovered the nonsense Bahunbadi social as well as state patronage of such evils. Now, the issues of civil liberty and political freedom have become the critical agenda items. Establishing inclusive pluralistic democracy at the grassroots is the challenge not only for the Maoists, but for other political and social forces as well. The return or resurgence of the local functionaries of the national political parties and their participation in the process of decision making could bring life in this process. They should participate in the local governance mechanism. But, the participation should be through election of the village assemblies. This is what the villages need now. The Maoists should welcome the returnees and/or the resurgent cadres of other political parties. They, themselves, should participate in the governance by competing with these political opponents. They should abide by the law that they agree to govern or to sit in the opposition as mandated by the people through periodic elections. When the village assemblies are in place, then comes the turn of rural physical progress. Mobilizing resources available locally, raising voices to bring the national resources through collective bargaining, and building prosperous villages should be the priority of these village assemblies. The historic process of transformation has already been started and the progressive forces should ensure to take it to its logical conclusion.

For a decade, the politico-cultural, economic and military confrontations had been heavily concentrated in the villages. Now, the villages are administered by the agencies other than that of the government in Singh durbar. The same agencies are reaching out to towns and cities to establish their governance. It sounds a bit funny, but a new reality begins its journey rather through a semi visible route and reaches to the stage of super visibility. Some people feel it, see it and talk about it in its semi visible state itself, whereas the others see it during the stage of super visibility. This happens not only due to ignorance or absence of hard facts, but also because of someone's utter dislike of that emerging reality and determined rejection of it.

Let's see what has started to happen outside the village Nepal. The Maoist army has already established its well equipped security posts in many towns. It is present in every strategic highways and major boarder posts. It has started patrolling the boarder to check the illegal movement of goods. The tax system has been introduced by the Maoists in the towns and cities too. They have started their justice delivery services there. Moreover, they have been channeling the district level government funds (though partially and only in some districts) allocated for rural infrastructure and are implementing as well as overseeing the construction works. They have started awarding the district level contracts in areas of local resource exploitation such as sand and stones and service provisions such as ferry, boats, etc. They have been collecting the road tax. In fact, even in towns, cities and highways, now they have started to gradually replacing the agencies of the government headquartered in Singh durbar.

In the villages, there is single governance mechanism with some exceptions in areas closer to the big cities or the district headquarters. Good or bad, there is the rule as per the design of the Maoists. Hence, the duel rule is confined to the major towns and cities. The Maoists agenda is to unify the governance by designing a new system through the election of the constituent assembly. Therefore, they need the election for restructuring the sate and transferring the state power to the new structures and establishing themselves as a major player in governance. But, why the seven party alliance is willing to go for the election? There are a few logics and among them the most important one is 'their desire' to resolve the 'Maoist problem'. Otherwise, they are perfectly happy with the parliamentary system they have now. Why they are ready to compromise? In the past when the king had captured all power, it was understandable that they tried to find out a common ground to have some sort of understanding with the Maoists. Hence, they agreed that they also will hold the tail of the holy cow, the constituent assembly. Now, the situation has changed and they have become the masters of Singh durbar. Hence, they do not need the tail of the holy cow; rather they need the precious villages under their control. Contrary to this, the Maoists, the champions of harvesting benefits from the fights within the enemy camps, also want to establish their effective governance over the towns and cities. They will not allow the seven party alliance to rule over the villages on the terms of Singh durbar. Similarly, the seven party alliance will not vacate the cities and towns for the Maoists. Hence, the towns and cities are going to be the areas of turmoil. To reach to that level, both, the Maoists and the seven party alliance have to pass through a logical course. Therefore, both of them have been constantly talking about the election of the constituent assembly, either enthusiastically or reluctantly. Now, this may or may not be a commitment, but certainly this talk in itself is part of that logical course.
Although, there is no credible basis to sustain it over a long period of time, the morale of the seven party alliance sounds high. They do not have their own army and the army which they inherited and are presiding over has been considered not loyal to them. It is true that the powerful regional and global forces are backing them. That is their only credible strength. But, that support too is conditional, particularly from the superpower. The condition is that they have to part company with the Maoists if the Maoists reject decommissioning and disarming. Until now, only one factor has not been clear and that is why India, at least publicly, is supporting the idea of partnership between the Maoists and the seven party alliance. Is there any secret understanding among the three - India, seven party alliance and Maoists? Secret understanding or no secret understanding, if and when the Maoists see no reason to partnering with the seven party alliance, they have the courage and motivation to come out of such arrangements, instantly. Alternatively, if and when the Maoist leadership succumbs to international pressure and starts decommissioning and disarming the Maoist army, the leadership will have to witness the revolt and reorganization of their own army against them. This could be the most logical scenario. The Maoist leadership understands it more than anybody else. Then, why they are parading on the roads and streets of the historic city of Kathmandu? Are they enjoying life as tourists? Are they collecting information to establish a handicraft exporting house? Are they negotiating with the spineless government representatives without any purpose? Are they under strong influence of any foreign force? Are they super ambitious crooks who are in hurry to enter inside the Singh durbar? If the answer of the last five questions is an emphatic "no", then there is a mission behind. And, the mission could not be better than either to establishing a progressive political system that could transform the Nepalese society by actively participating in the election of the constituent assembly or if it fails as a process or as an output, starting the urban guerilla war, which will ensure effective governance in the villages and also will help to establish hold over the towns and cities. If the reluctant seven party alliance succumbs to foreign pressure and creates obstacles in Maoists' participation in the election of the constituent assembly or if the Maoists conclude that there is no alternative available for them other than rejecting or accepting the pre-conditions including decommissioning and disarming, the very day, they may go back to war. In fact, the Maoist army could be placed in a number of temporary barracks and the United Nations could ensure their being inside till the election has not been over. Therefore, either there might be peace by taking the route of the constituent assembly or there could be war, particularly the urban guerilla war, if the ongoing negotiation fails. In such situation, the villages may remain peaceful, but there could be unprecedented turmoil in towns and cities. Therefore, there is urgency to understand the gravity of problems, to examine availability of options, to decide immediate course of actions and to craft strategies to ensure better prospects.

The article has been posted on www.nepalresearch.com

Spring Thunder In Nepal: glorious but inconclusive

- Govinda Neupane

Once, I was in Phalaicha village, near Chyangthapu in northern Panchthar. I saw large plots of fertile land where paddy was ready to harvest. In a mountainous region, it was something special. During discussions with the villagers, I found out that most of the plots belonged to the Khas (the ruling nationality in Nepal) families, though they were a tiny minority there.

After a few years, I saw the same phenomenon in Zimbabwe. Nearly all arable land had been captured by the white farmers. The sugarcane fields, fruit farms and maize or vegetable cultivations belonged to the Whites, whereas the black Zimbabweans had to satisfy with less fertile communal land or they had to survive in the patches of the bush.

Why the Khasas in Phalaicha and the Whites in Zimbabwe had the ownership over the most fertile land, though they were a tiny minority? Also, they had migrated much later than the indigenous people who cleared the forests, developed technologies appropriate to their time and started cultivations. This is a fundamental question. The class composition and nationality or racial dominance of a state structure, which controls power, makes all difference.

The same happened before, during and after the Spring Thunder of 2006 in Nepal. Hundreds of thousands of people, particularly from the rural areas waged relentless struggle for more than a decade. Their resolute struggle gave birth to a bigger force and that force reached to the urban centers and resulted to a massive popular movement. Also, the parliamentary parties and the urban middle class joined the movement after the royal coup of February 2005. Those were the glorious days when hundreds of thousands of people marched in the cities and towns all over Nepal and the villages sent their beloved daughters and sons to create the Spring Thunder. After the conclusion of the popular movement with partial success in April 2006, the late comers not only claimed victory but also grabbed opportunities. The urban middle class intellectuals, both who participated in the movement and who stayed away, have been celebrating victory and forwarding their wish list for the encashment of benefits. The workers, mostly from informal sectors have gone back to their work places as without work they can not survive. The poor and landless peasants or the agriculture workers who came to encircle the capital city and district HQs have gone back to their respective villages to work in the field again as an agriculture worker or as a militia or as a political activist or something else. The agitators, who had no shoes on their feet or no proper dresses to cover their bodies, were the driving force of the mass movement. But, they are no more in the picture. They are neither in the cabinet nor in the parliament nor in the august gatherings in the convention halls of the star graded hotels. A different lot is staking claim that democracy is their child. The political leaders from the parliamentary 'mainstream' have started to clean up their faces by making changes primarily directed towards adjustments within their ruling coalition, which includes the monarchy. Rather than accepting the simple fact that the people are sovereign and letting them decide through the constituent assembly what they want, they are trying to create comfortable space for themselves through parliamentary decrees. They have to concentrate on making arrangements for a period covering from the time they took over the state power to the election of the constituent assembly. Also, they have to create conducive environment for the election. But, they are behaving, as if, their parliament is immortal and they are one with the mandate to rule forever. They are already in the business of blame-game. They are blaming the Maoists for collecting donations or recruiting people in their army. They are blaming not only other parties within the ruling coalition but also the other factions of their own parties. Perhaps, negative energy is their strength and they are busy generating the same.

It is strange when they deliver lectures on parliamentary supremacy. By proclaiming ‘supremacy of the parliament’, they are intending to tame the king. In reality, they themselves saved the seat of the monarch. They are also creating environment to tame the Maoists. For this purpose, they are trying to play the role and exercise the authority of the constituent assembly through their ‘supreme’ parliament. The people on the street were demanding the establishment of a progressive democratic republic of Nepal, whereas they got the restoration of the parliament. The people fought for a long time for fundamental socio-political and economic transformation, whereas they got nothing which could substantially changes power relationships at the grassroots and above. Although, declaring Nepal a secular state is a change in positive direction, other changes are far less than the expectations of the people. Rather than going through a surgical process to remove the brain tumor, the parliamentary parties opted for simple medication. Anyway, the parliamentary political forces represent the upper class. Therefore, it is certain that the people should rise once again to address the transformational issues. Hence, another agitation to transform the society and change the power relationship has become imminent. When the people rise, they rise as a tide and break the barriers made out of any material. The parliamentary leaders should understand this simple fact. Not their ‘parliamentary supremacy’, but the people power will decide the future course of Nepal. These parliamentary leaders, the supper Gods of democracy, failed to understand or accept this simple fact.

There are two major fronts to concentrate on to make changes – the superstructure and grassroots. The supreme sacrifice of thousands of people during the decade starting 1996 was neither for replacing one lot of corrupts with another set of corrupts nor it was for providing opportunity to foreign forces to have a field-day. The same personalities, who looted the country, played with national interests and misused power to its extreme, are holding the state power today. They are a bit different in form than those actors of the royal regime but they are the same in essence in regard to the ruling culture, class and philosophical paradigm. They have already got more than what they were aspiring and clinging to it is what they will try for. Therefore, from now on, talking big and blocking the fundamental changes would be the business of these politicians of the parliamentary school. The ruling political class will talk loudly about constituent assembly and will put all energy to strengthen the restored parliament to achieve the goal of maintaining the status quo. Moreover, they will try to restore the dissolved local bodies to improve their access to local levels. Basically, maintaining the status quo that they have decreed through the restored parliament is the goal, program and policy of these 'mainstream' political forces and their role and behaviors will stay around this goal. Therefore, neither they will change the superstructure fundamentally nor the base. Although, they have curtailed the power of the monarchy to a great extent, it is foolish to believe that the patient never returns back from the ICU. Perhaps, the parliamentary leaders also know this fact. Therefore, in some extreme situation, they may opt for a republic. Still, fundamentally and pragmatically, Nepal will continue to be an upper class Khas state. The talk of restructuring the state could be a ploy to pacify the mass anger and not for really to establish cooperative federalism with national autonomy granted to the extent of right to self-determination including the right of secession, if the people of a particular autonomous region wish so. If the leaders of the seven-party alliance would be committed on restructuring the state, they could have outlined the core components of their proposal in their ‘parliamentary proclamation’. But, they didn’t do.

Now, the constituent assembly has replaced the ‘powerful’ Hindu Gods. It is strange but true that worshipping the constituent assembly has become a regular feature. The royalists, ‘mainstream’ politicians, intellectuals, civil society barons and media heavyweights all are chanting the hymns in praise of the constituent assembly. Why so? It is easier to derail the process from within. There are only a few among the above mentioned groups who may be genuinely interested to go for the real democratic exercise to establish a progressive democratic republican state order. Therefore, the so-called national consensus on holding the election of the constituent assembly may not necessarily provide synergy only for forward movement. The situation is fluid and complex and it is natural that the Maoists will maintain their army and even they may expand and strengthen their fighting capacity.

What next then? Probably, the actors of the royal regime will go on hibernation and wait for an opportune moment to bounce back. The masters of the parliamentary stream will try to establish themselves effectively. Although, there could be a honeymoon phase between the parliamentary forces and the Maoists, but that will not last long. Even if there is an interim government participated in by the Maoist that too would be a temporary arrangement. The class contradiction, incompatible ideological paradigms and fundamentally different strategic missions will not allow them to stay together for a long time. Therefore, if the election of the constituent assembly will not be organized immediately, forget about addressing the transformational issues and designing a political system by the parliamentary forces and the Maoists together. Most probably, the parliamentary forces may not behave differently in strategic sense than that what they did in the past. They will try to prolong the life of the reinstated parliament and thus, their own government. They will rule in the cities and towns for fairly a long time. The Maoists will rule the villages and remote areas directly and will rule over the cities and towns indirectly, also for fairly a long time. They will stay away from Kathmandu as that will be some sort of insurance against foreign military invasion. Hence, the absolute desire for peace shall not materialize provided that the Maoists do not degenerate or northern India does not come under effective Maoist influence, which shall enable the Maoists in Nepal to capture the central state power or the Maoists are not defeated militarily. Most likely, the common men and women who are aspiring for peace through the election of the constituent assembly will be frustrated, the merchants of peace will sell even the derailed process to build their own future and the political forces will constantly fight for supremacy till two separate governance systems will remain in practice. Unifying the governance systems will be a strategic goal for both, the Maoists and the parliamentary forces. That goal could be realized through the election of the constituent assembly, which might address the transformational politico-economic and social issues. But, this option is passing through the process of serious derailment. Some of the ministers and the ambassadors of the influential countries have already put the demand forward that the Maoist should renounce violence and lay down their arms before the election of the assembly. This demand is the key to derailment. Alternatively, the goal of unifying the governance systems could be realized by the victory of one ruling side. Therefore, the polarization between the parliamentary forces and the Maoists sounds imminent. Hence, in all probability, the people have to live in a situation of civil war till the unjust upper class Khas rule becomes history.

The article has been posted on www.blog.com.np and www.nepalresearch.com
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