POST ELECTION NEPAL : POLLS RIGGED OR NOT BUT NEGATIVE AGAINST THE MAOISTS

Govinda Neupane

The election of the second Constituent Assembly (CA) has been basically over. The old 'greats' Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist party of Nepal (UML) are back to the position of their grand old days. The Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) or UCPNM tested the bitter pills. The Madhesi parties shed their muscles and became smaller and, perhaps, fitter. The monarchist pro-Hindu Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal (RPPN) has done fairly better. The small parties got the slice of the cake according to their strength and size. The election boycotting Nepal Communist Party-Maoist led front has been sidelined or has emerged stronger; nobody knows exactly as they were out of the contest. 

Now, there are fierce debates on fairness and impartiality of the election and its process as rigging has become a buzzword. Another issue of larger concern is the probable course, the poll-boycotting force, the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPNM) may adopt. The third issue is that of government formation. The fourth is the task of constitution writing and the fifth is to address the larger issues of people's livelihood and taking the country to the path of progress.

Let's examine the issues one by one.

1. Election – Impartial or rigged?

Initially, there was general consensus among the mainstream political parties that the election was peaceful and impartial. Every top leaders of poll participating parties were in hurry to thank the people, election commission and interim government. However, at the middle of the night, UCPNM discovered that the election was rigged. The next morning, some other parties joined UCPNM. Prominent among them included Sanghiya Samajbadi Party (SSP) and Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum, Nepal (MJFN).

The article by Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani published in a popular Nepali newspaper 'raveled' a modus operandi that was used for rigging. This revelation gave some credence to the "Rigging Theory". The probability of involvement of the army in this process made the situation further complicated. UCPNM blamed some abstract forces for this 'rigging', Dr. Lohani pointed finger to army's complicity and "pro-rigging theory" media blamed India for staging a grand show behind the curtain. Among the believers of "Rigging Theory", nobody knows exactly what went wrong, but they strongly feel that the election results are cooked by using rigging as the fuel. In the past, when King Birendra Shah and his family members were murdered, many people blamed his near and dear in killing of him and his family. They did not know how, but concluded that they know who. The same thing has repeated now. The believers of "Rigging Theory" do not know how and who did it, but are sure that the election was rigged. I leave it for future to dig out the truth, if anything needs to be discovered. 

However, this "Rigging Theory" gave comfort to UCPNM and helped to save the morale of their cadres. This is, perhaps, the positive outcome of this theory. More than this, there would be no big impact due to this theory. UCPNM will sneak into the CA edifice in one or the other way and the business will continue as usual.

One point should be noted down here that primarily, the voters voted against the highhanded behaviors of the cadres, vulgar luxuries of the leaders and anti-people as well as anti-nation policies of the UCPNM rather than endorsing NC and UML agenda. If it is not rigged, it is a negative vote against the UCPNM. 

2. What would be the future course of the forces boycotting CA election?

The CPNM- led front has lost some glory as the voting percentage was high, but it is also in a position of celebration as in the mainstream there is hue and cry regarding rigging. This phenomenon gave opportunity to the front for self-assessment and also provided some moral high ground.

Now, they have two options available.

 First, they will boycott the entire process of constitution writing, discredit the entire CA and go for mass agitation for new way for drafting a new constitution. This way, by excluding them from the new constitution drating process, they may keep option open for burning the constitution in near future. The forces fighting for inclusion and justice, which were in favor of federalism with identity of nationalities and social, political and economic justice for Dalits may form coalition with them, and in this way they could build a formidable force. They will basically function as the permanent opposition and one fine morning the CPNM may start armed rebellion. 

Second, they will enter into debate to formulate a constitution that could insert a few provisions, which are dear to the front's heart. These provisions, if included, may assuage the ego of the front and also could make the constitution a bit more inclusive. They will not burn the constitution and will repeate what UML had done in 1990s. They will say "support with reservation" and go slowly the UML way and assimilate in the larger canvas of the conventional politics. 

3. How the government would be formulated?

Now, this is a major question. 

There are two probable options here too.

The first and more probable option makes the situation easier to form the government and more complicated to deliver. The NC has emerged as the single largest party. UML could not survive without fodder and power is its lone fodder. Hence, rather than staying in opposition, it will join the government with juicy ministries under its control. When its pathfinder UML joins the government, the ardent follower, the UCPNM also would jump into the bandwagon. The fourth party, the RPPN would lead the opposition with its stale ideology, regressive program and feeble number.  The 'Three Bigs' will run the loot raj as they are familiar with and the opposition would just play the role of a sick and weak crow. Nepal looses again. 

The second option could be that the NC as largest party forms the government and UML stays in opposition. The unpredictable UCPNM may join the government as it needs power to remain relevant and united. Hence, there would be two power blocks. The other forces would join this or that power block. This way, the government may function independent of the responsibility of drafting a new constitution. Running the government and drafting constitution would be separate. This option is more hypothetical seeing hunger for power in Nepali political field, but would be ideal for democratic functioning of the government and participatory process of constitution writing. 

4. How the constitution drafting process would go?

This time, the CA has more homogeneous nature in regard to the agenda. Particularly, 'multi-identity federalism' and supremacy of parliamentary cabinet system are common between NC and UML. Only a small difference is about how the Prime Minister is elected – Israeli way or the British way. This minor difference is that of more technical nature and it would not be a major hurdle. Hence, a constitution that has the soul of 1990 constitution and form of Indian constitution would be the final product, if NC and UML succeed to translate their manifestos into reality.  However, here is a BIG question mark.

The UCPNM would try to project itself as the Messiah of social inclusion and justice including "federalism with identity." This is the strongest emotional chord that the party could get hands on. The opposition forces that boycotted the polls would join hands and the other identity based parties may join this front. This force makes the life of numerically stronger NC and UML vulnerable as their own flocks from Janajatis, Dalits and Madhesis will start creating unbearable pressure on them.

Fight over the nature and essence of federalism would divide the nation in an unprecedented scale and intensity. Hence, the constitution drafting process, most probably, would get delayed and delayed.

The alternatives are there such as the NC and UML agreeing to travel halfway and the opposing forces also agreeing to come forward and reach the same destination and there is constitution which has both "yes, federalism with identity" and "yes, federalism without identity". Both blocks would interpret it according to their needs. However, when that would come into practice, the whole nation will face the situation of another mess created by this ambiguous constitutional provision.

Moreover, the new CA may not formulate progressive provisions to correct the injustices on Dalits as the NC and UML have nothing to offer other than some cosmetics. This contradiction would continue unresolved.

This way, Janajatis, Madhesis and Dalits would feel excluded and another wind of agitation makes the situation more unstable.

5. What would be done for people's livelihood and country's progress during the interim period?

The parties and the leaders are well known for inaction, hypocrisy, corruption and visionlessness. I have never seen or heard a bull giving birth to a calf. Therefore, expecting any contribution from the political elites is too unrealistic. 

However, our people are intelligent, enterprising, committed and largely disciplined. They have been finding the ways and means that makes them productive, their families prospering and the nation, at least, surviving.  A few millions have been working hard in the desert of the Gulf countries, more or less the same number is in India, some are in the jungle of Malaysia, or are in South Korea and a few are in Europe, Japan, Australia and America. Many among them are working under sub-human conditions, a few have lost their precious lives and only a small percentage is in better positions. The others in Nepal itself are busy in changing the subsistence agriculture into economically viable agriculture activities, some are active in providing services and some are managing profit ventures. In this way, our people with never-say die attitude are sustaining Nepal as a place worth living. Hence, not the elites in the government, but the common people from villages, towns and cities are the protectors of our survival and hope for a bright future. The expansion of educational institutions, functional health facilities, transport system and means of communications including the FM radios; all tiny enterprises run by the small private sector are contributing to create the foundation of a shinning Nepal. Alas! Our leaders and parties could contribute a small percentage to make this endeavor better. Or, at least they do no harm in this process. But, it is not so easy to expect from them. Notwithstanding what the leaders or parties do, we could reach to a new high. Nepal could be a glaring example of success, if the same tempo continues for some more years. This would be a fine example of success where politicians pull down the nation but people push up and succeed.

In conclusion, I am not very hopeful that this CA would be different than the one we had in recent past. The top Nepali politicians neither are clean nor honest (except Sushil Koirala and Mohan Baidhya), nor are they visionary. The political parties they run are less like a party and more as their fiefdoms. Hence, the situation from now also would be messy. But, our people will continue to fight against all odds and would make Nepal proud by their enterprising and daring acts including cleaning the political mess sometime in near future. Although, this sounds just a dream now, but a dream, when gets translated into a vision, it becomes a mother of a new reality. We are in that process. Really, it is interesting to note that we are marching forward with good speed and intensity.

Second Constituent Assembly Election and Probable Course Thereafter

-         Govinda Neupane 

After some months of the demise of the first Constituent Assembly (CA), politics took a back stage in governance and bureaucracy took control. Forces behind the scene played major roles in this transition. Ultimately, they decided to hold second CA poll in November 19, 2013. 

When the date was finally declared, some political forces came out against the process and the decision as that process and decision excluded them. A few cosmetics here and there did not satisfy the opposing parties and they started to protest vehemently. The vertical division started to get widened. 

Foreign forces led by India stood firmly behind the 4-party syndicate and the government they had given birth to. India sounded resolute after its assessments that the United Progressive Alliance government led by Indian Congress has nothing to project as success in foreign relations front particularly in the case of its neighbors. Moreover, its future prospects of coming back to power seem not bright. Hence, to show the outside world that it contributed to bring stability in Nepal by supporting to organize CA election and also to bring its friends and collaborators in government in Nepal; India took stand in favor of the election of the CA.

The Europeans have no education in democracy in the Third World countries. They are somehow illiterate in this regard. They have just two indicators of democracy – western orientation of the politics and election. In Nepal, both factors satisfy them and they jumped in the bandwagon of election.  Civil rights, human rights, inclusiveness, participation etc are the external teeth of an elephant.

The Americans are not that mush interested as they have already outsourced Nepal policy to India. As long as their interest in Tibet is served and real Maoist forces are in check, they will continue this policy of outsourcing.

Anyway, the conductor of Nepali CA election orchestra, India made every support available including light helicopters, combat equipments, weaponry and other non-military logistics. The Nepali army was made battle ready. Finally, with support from the western powers, several non-government entities mushroomed to educate voters, to advance the cause of our marginalized section of society and to make Nepal heaven with the magic stick of the CA election. Money flooded in, information flooded out. The capital city of Kathmandu and other major cities and towns were also flooded with ISO- certifying company called in this regard called as election observers including former US President Jimmy Carter of Carter Center. Nepal got attention of and resources mostly from India, the West and the US. 

Today, in 19 November 2013, the voting started. 

Now, let's see the other side of the coin. The opponents of the election started to stages protests in the form of mass meetings, rallies and demonstrations in several parts of the country at the time of taking decision for CA election. Their demands were brought down into two – solution through all party conference and change of the election government. The Nepali faces of the ruling syndicate were somehow seen sympathetic, at least for public consumption purpose to organize the all party conference, but the India-led foreign coalition was determined not to do so. Ultimately India prevailed and the conference was put to back burner. The angry opposition offered militant warnings of words and started the march past of militant volunteers. The confrontation started to take ugly course. Bombs, fake and real, were planted and/or exploded. The new discovery of petrol bomb generated terror among citizens. Who did this? The ruling syndicate blamed the opposition. The opposition denounced such bombings and blamed the government and the ruling syndicate for such acts.

After all, who did the bombings? There are four probable forces for such acts capable to carry out. They are: 1. Communist Party of Nepal -Maoist. 2. Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). 3. Angry, frustrated and skilled unorganized individuals, particularly the members of former PLA scattered all over the country, and 4. Some other small criminal groups hired by election participating parties. The country, once again, sounded like a war zone. Some innocent persons lost their precious lives. Properties, particularly the transport vehicles were damaged and destroyed. In this way, some type of anarchy was created to spread fear all over the country. 

In this period, the Communist Party of Nepal –Maoist - led front continued to dominate the headlines the media with positive or negative coverages. It emerged as the opposition force at national level due to its call for the boycott of the CA election.

The end result was that, now, we have a society and a nation vertically divided. The positions of the parties in two camps are beyond reconciliation.  The fight would continue though the forms will change. 

After the election, the members of the syndicate will have different strengths as individual components. The probable positions could be as: number ONE Nepali Congress, number TWO Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), number 3 Unified Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist. They will form the core of the ruling syndicate by forming a coalition government or by putting an unconstitutional mechanism above the government to share the booty. Madhesi parties may loose their significance all together. Most probably, the parliamentary opposition would be led by Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal and 40 plus parties with 1 to 10 seats may get access into the CA edifice.  Hence, here too horse trading and ugly fights could be seen. All of them are less interested to draft a new constitution rather than to prolong the transition, which gives them the opportunity and means to serve their vested interests. 

The anarchy of the petty political elites will continue for some more years. However, the vertical division, turmoil and deadly confrontation would not allow them to stay long and to enjoy the luxury of power, position and wealth. 

The people, now, are more aware. The critical mass has emerged stronger. The parliamentary opposition within and extra-parliamentary opposition outside the CA would spoil the party of the ruling syndicate. The turmoil may give birth to a third mass movement. The Shah King's autocratic rule and the Panchayat were extremely hated by the people. Hence, there was mass movement in 1990. Gyanendra and his rule were extremely hated by the people. Hence, the mass movement of 2006 took place. The syndicate and the elitist anarchy have been extremely hated by the people now. Hence a third mass movement seems not only logical but also inevitable.  History repeats itself but from a higher spiral, observed V. I. Lenin, perhaps, rightly.