Govinda Neupane
The election of the second
Constituent Assembly (CA) has been basically over. The old 'greats' Nepali
Congress (NC) and the Communist party of Nepal (UML) are back to the position
of their grand old days. The Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) or UCPNM
tested the bitter pills. The Madhesi parties shed their muscles and became
smaller and, perhaps, fitter. The monarchist pro-Hindu Rastriya Prajatantra
Party, Nepal (RPPN) has done fairly better. The small parties got the slice of
the cake according to their strength and size. The election boycotting Nepal
Communist Party-Maoist led front has been sidelined or has emerged stronger;
nobody knows exactly as they were out of the contest.
Now, there are fierce debates on
fairness and impartiality of the election and its process as rigging has become
a buzzword. Another issue of larger concern is the probable course, the
poll-boycotting force, the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPNM) may adopt.
The third issue is that of government formation. The fourth is the task of
constitution writing and the fifth is to address the larger issues of people's
livelihood and taking the country to the path of progress.
Let's examine the issues one by
one.
- Election – Impartial or rigged?
Initially, there
was general consensus among the mainstream political parties that the election
was peaceful and impartial. Every top leaders of poll participating parties were
in hurry to thank the people, election commission and interim government.
However, at the middle of the night, UCPNM discovered that the election was
rigged. The next morning, some other parties joined UCPNM. Prominent among them
included Sanghiya Samajbadi Party (SSP) and Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum, Nepal
(MJFN).
The article by
Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani published in a popular Nepali newspaper 'raveled' a
modus operandi that was used for rigging. This revelation gave some credence to
the "Rigging Theory". The probability of involvement of the army in
this process made the situation further complicated. UCPNM blamed some abstract
forces for this 'rigging', Dr. Lohani pointed finger to army's complicity and "pro-rigging
theory" media blamed India for staging a grand show behind the curtain.
Among the believers of "Rigging Theory", nobody knows exactly what
went wrong, but they strongly feel that the election results are cooked by
using rigging as the fuel. In the past, when King Birendra Shah and his family
members were murdered, many people blamed his near and dear in killing of him
and his family. They did not know how, but concluded that they know who. The same
thing has repeated now. The believers of "Rigging Theory" do not know
how and who did it, but are sure that the election was rigged. I leave it for future
to dig out the truth, if anything needs to be discovered.
However, this
"Rigging Theory" gave comfort to UCPNM and helped to save the morale
of their cadres. This is, perhaps, the positive outcome of this theory. More
than this, there would be no big impact due to this theory. UCPNM will sneak
into the CA edifice in one or the other way and the business will continue as
usual.
One point should
be noted down here that primarily, the voters voted against the highhanded behaviors
of the cadres, vulgar luxuries of the leaders and anti-people as well as
anti-nation policies of the UCPNM rather than endorsing NC and UML agenda. If it
is not rigged, it is a negative vote against the UCPNM.
- What would be the future course of the forces boycotting CA election?
The CPNM- led
front has lost some glory as the voting percentage was high, but it is also in
a position of celebration as in the mainstream there is hue and cry regarding
rigging. This phenomenon gave opportunity to the front for self-assessment and
also provided some moral high ground.
Now, they have
two options available.
First, they will boycott the entire process of
constitution writing, discredit the entire CA and go for mass agitation for new
way for drafting a new constitution. This way, by excluding them from the new
constitution drating process, they may keep option open for burning the
constitution in near future. The forces fighting for inclusion and justice,
which were in favor of federalism with identity of nationalities and social,
political and economic justice for Dalits may form coalition with them, and in
this way they could build a formidable force. They will basically function as
the permanent opposition and one fine morning the CPNM may start armed rebellion.
Second, they
will enter into debate to formulate a constitution that could insert a few
provisions, which are dear to the front's heart. These provisions, if included,
may assuage the ego of the front and also could make the constitution a bit
more inclusive. They will not burn the constitution and will repeate what UML
had done in 1990s. They will say "support with reservation" and go
slowly the UML way and assimilate in the larger canvas of the conventional
politics.
- How the government would be formulated?
Now, this is a
major question.
There are two
probable options here too.
The first and
more probable option makes the situation easier to form the government and more
complicated to deliver. The NC has emerged as the single largest party. UML
could not survive without fodder and power is its lone fodder. Hence, rather
than staying in opposition, it will join the government with juicy ministries
under its control. When its pathfinder UML joins the government, the ardent
follower, the UCPNM also would jump into the bandwagon. The fourth party, the
RPPN would lead the opposition with its stale ideology, regressive program and feeble
number. The 'Three Bigs' will run the loot
raj as they are familiar with and the opposition would just play the role of a
sick and weak crow. Nepal looses again.
The second
option could be that the NC as largest party forms the government and UML stays
in opposition. The unpredictable UCPNM may join the government as it needs
power to remain relevant and united. Hence, there would be two power blocks. The
other forces would join this or that power block. This way, the government may
function independent of the responsibility of drafting a new constitution.
Running the government and drafting constitution would be separate. This option
is more hypothetical seeing hunger for power in Nepali political field, but
would be ideal for democratic functioning of the government and participatory
process of constitution writing.
- How the constitution drafting process would go?
This time, the
CA has more homogeneous nature in regard to the agenda. Particularly, 'multi-identity
federalism' and supremacy of parliamentary cabinet system are common between NC
and UML. Only a small difference is about how the Prime Minister is elected – Israeli
way or the British way. This minor difference is that of more technical nature
and it would not be a major hurdle. Hence, a constitution that has the soul of
1990 constitution and form of Indian constitution would be the final product,
if NC and UML succeed to translate their manifestos into reality. However, here is a BIG question mark.
The UCPNM would
try to project itself as the Messiah of social inclusion and justice including "federalism
with identity." This is the strongest emotional chord that the party could
get hands on. The opposition forces that boycotted the polls would join hands
and the other identity based parties may join this front. This force makes the
life of numerically stronger NC and UML vulnerable as their own flocks from
Janajatis, Dalits and Madhesis will start creating unbearable pressure on them.
Fight over the
nature and essence of federalism would divide the nation in an unprecedented
scale and intensity. Hence, the constitution drafting process, most probably,
would get delayed and delayed.
The alternatives
are there such as the NC and UML agreeing to travel halfway and the opposing
forces also agreeing to come forward and reach the same destination and there
is constitution which has both "yes, federalism with identity" and
"yes, federalism without identity". Both blocks would interpret it according
to their needs. However, when that would come into practice, the whole nation will
face the situation of another mess created by this ambiguous constitutional
provision.
Moreover, the
new CA may not formulate progressive provisions to correct the injustices on
Dalits as the NC and UML have nothing to offer other than some cosmetics. This
contradiction would continue unresolved.
This way,
Janajatis, Madhesis and Dalits would feel excluded and another wind of agitation
makes the situation more unstable.
- What would be done for people's livelihood and country's progress during the interim period?
The parties and
the leaders are well known for inaction, hypocrisy, corruption and visionlessness.
I have never seen or heard a bull giving birth to a calf. Therefore, expecting
any contribution from the political elites is too unrealistic.
However, our
people are intelligent, enterprising, committed and largely disciplined. They
have been finding the ways and means that makes them productive, their families
prospering and the nation, at least, surviving. A few millions have been working hard in the
desert of the Gulf countries, more or less the same number is in India, some
are in the jungle of Malaysia, or are in South Korea and a few are in Europe,
Japan, Australia and America. Many among them are working under sub-human
conditions, a few have lost their precious lives and only a small percentage is
in better positions. The others in Nepal itself are busy in changing the subsistence
agriculture into economically viable agriculture activities, some are active in
providing services and some are managing profit ventures. In this way, our
people with never-say die attitude are sustaining Nepal as a place worth
living. Hence, not the elites in the government, but the common people from
villages, towns and cities are the protectors of our survival and hope for a
bright future. The expansion of educational institutions, functional health
facilities, transport system and means of communications including the FM radios;
all tiny enterprises run by the small private sector are contributing to create
the foundation of a shinning Nepal. Alas! Our leaders and parties could contribute
a small percentage to make this endeavor better. Or, at least they do no harm
in this process. But, it is not so easy to expect from them. Notwithstanding
what the leaders or parties do, we could reach to a new high. Nepal could be a
glaring example of success, if the same tempo continues for some more years.
This would be a fine example of success where politicians pull down the nation
but people push up and succeed.
In conclusion, I am not very
hopeful that this CA would be different than the one we had in recent past. The
top Nepali politicians neither are clean nor honest (except Sushil Koirala and
Mohan Baidhya), nor are they visionary. The political parties they run are less
like a party and more as their fiefdoms. Hence, the situation from now also
would be messy. But, our people will continue to fight against all odds and
would make Nepal proud by their enterprising and daring acts including cleaning
the political mess sometime in near future. Although, this sounds just a dream
now, but a dream, when gets translated into a vision, it becomes a mother of a
new reality. We are in that process. Really, it is interesting to note that we
are marching forward with good speed and intensity.
