Post-Election Nepal: Some Roses, Some Thorns

(This is the main text of my email. The email was sent to a friend on 26 April 2008.)

Govinda Neupane

The election has been over and the situation has changed quantitatively. But, by and large, that is the same. The political situation is still fluid. The Maoists have emerged as the largest party, but they are far less in number (220) than that the majority (302 seats). Their friendly parties have not more than 15 seats altogether. Therefore, political instability will continue or even worsen. The Maoists have no other option than to continue talking loudly and the NC-UML combine will remain busy ambushing them or vice versa. The market price, particularly, the price of petroleum products will add fuel to fire. The market turmoil particularly unavailability of essential commodities shall continue and the new government (whoever forms) will have to fight for their own survival rather than concentrating on constitution writing business. The people are already restive and they have been told that the constituent assembly will illuminate new Nepal. They are expecting that miracle to happen. The economic fundamentals are the same, the service delivery mechanism particularly, the bureaucracy is the same and the process of change is incremental and not radical (even if the Maoists form the government, they may not be at liberty to proceed with radical reform agenda, forget about the transformational one!). Therefore, the dreams of the people may not come true. Sooner than later, frustration and hopelessness may replace romanticism and beautiful dreams.

There are some good things too. Among them, the corrupt, incompetent, unimaginative and outdated leaders have been knocked out (people should be aware as they may come to the ring once again by one or another tricks. Sushil Koirala has already been chairing the CC meeting of the Congress party shamelessly, even after declaring his resignation from the position of acting party president!) Second, the assembly is far better inclusive. The new energy generated through the presence of women, Madhesis, Janajatis, Dalits and youths comparatively in large numbers will challenge vigorously the old Khasa-controlled, male-dominated, unproductive-outdated leaders-led and kathmandu-centric political order. Third, the monarchy has no other option than to pack up and start its journey from Narayanhiti palace to Nirmal Nivas or to a foreign country. Four, the Kathmandu elites (the so-called intellectuals including the political analysts) are far more marginalized. Five, federalism and autonomy may open up the new phenomenon where people could participate more meaningfully in the decision making process of the state.

This is what I have to share with you today.