Nepal Reality Check - IV: Failure of the Poltical Leadership and Available Options

- Govinda Neupane

The events in Nepal are heralding to a very different scenario than what the people had expected from the “Spring Thunder, 2006”. The historic people’s movement succeeded in snatching power from the tyrant-king and handed it over to a new ruling coalition of all the major political parties. The beginning was messy, but that could be so due to factors influencing the transition. The then seven-party alliance government got new partner when the Maoists joined the interim government. The expectations of the people were that the government would provide immediate relief to their difficulties and ensure brighter future by designing a system that could open up the flood-gate of peace, democracy, civil liberty, social equity, economic prosperity and all round development. Instead of delivering seeds to address these expectations, the governing parties started their bull-fights publicly to get a few more positions in the government and a few more positions here and there such as vice chancellors of the universities. Nepalese people started to show frustrations and that further gave way to either hopelessness or rebellion. The Madhesi revolt is the most prominent among all. Finally, the Maoists came out of the government fearing that they also will loose all their credibility and popular base. In the course of reaching to this decision, the Maoist cadres had pressurized the leadership tremendously. To give the disassociation some political color, the Maoists put forward the demand for immediate declaration of the republic and acceptance of the proportional representation system. Also, they called for the special session of the parliament. Although, these demands were meritorious, genuine and progressive, the Nepali way of barter system in politics resulted to some bizarre arrangements, such as increasing the number of seats in the Constituent Assembly to 601.

The Communist Party of Nepal (UML) is gender neutral, politically. Therefore, it entered into an understanding with the Maoists and got the Maoist’s proposals endorsed by the parliament camouflaging one of the proposals as its own amendment to the original one. Of course, this is surprising, but more surprising is that the UML has been interpreting its move as part of the reconciliation effort. The Nepali Congress hurt and bewildered was under tremendous moral pressure but as a seasoned player of the Nepali power politics; it managed to get a way out through new power-sharing arrangements. The Maoists are happy as the UML leadership has been chewing tastefully the green grass offered to it in the form of the position of the Prime Minister. On the other side, the UML deeply divided over the issue had to face the serious challenge of vertical split in regard to tactical political line. The left-leaning group together with one faction of the opportunists inside the UML was moving closer to the Maoists whereas the right-leaning group together with another set of the opportunists was creeping towards the Nepali Congress. As lions sitting comfortably under the branches of a large tree, the Congress and the Maoists were waiting patiently the fall of the monkeys on their respective laps. But, the new political seize-fire gave the breathing space to the UML too.

All the unpredictable behaviors of the ruling parties are part of the larger political anarchy seen in Kathmandu. For several months, people are hearing about several leaders sneaking inside Baluwatar Durbar and coming out many times in a day or in a week. These types of circuses have been continuing in Singh Durbar too whether it is parliament or the cabinet or the central secretariat. The individuals have become larger than events and the events are seen as larger than any ideas and ideologies. This is unfortunate but true. Therefore, the people have not only been feeling allergic, but have developed hatred towards such acts and actions.

The political plays as mentioned above are being continuously performed in the amphitheatre of comatose Kathmandu, whereas in Madhes, the people of oppressed nationalities and marginalized sections have been launching their movements for several months to establish a just and equitable socio-political order. And, also secessionist forces together with many more groups and gangs are orchestrating the blood bath for realizing different objectives including but not limited to federalism, autonomy and independent statehood. Weak and demoralized, the major players of the Kathmandu political fraternity could be seen most occasionally in this part, particularly in the central and eastern Madhes. In the western Madhes, the Maoist writ still runs effectively. The exceptions are District Headquarters and major highways. The northern hills and mountains, indifferent to the political events in Kathmandu and full blown revolt in the southern plains, have been continuing to fly the Maoist red flag all over there baring a few District Headquarters. Sometimes, it is confusing that the Maoists at the villages and the districts are the disconnected lots from the central leadership or they are the units of the centrally connected single Maoist entity. If they are one, then they are working with two pronged strategy – entertain upper class friends in Kathmandu and do the business of governance with the working masses elsewhere, particularly in the hills and mountains. Hence, there are three Nepals now if seen from the perspective of de facto governance. 1) The six-party alliance plus rule in Kathmandu valley and District Headquarters outside. 2) The Maoist rule in the hills, mountains and western Madhes. 3) Dominance of secessionist forces in the central and eastern part of Madhes.

More recently, the mainstream political big-wigs from Madhes have resigned from the Khas dominated central government, parliament and political parties and have declared to form a Madhesi Democratic Party. This new development may bring synergy to a more powerful Madhesi movement with a goal to establish an autonomous federal Madhes region. If they will fail together with another major political player the "Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum" as in the case of Sri Lankan Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), certainly the Liberation Elam of Tamil Tigers (LTTE)type secessionist forces in Madhes will emerge as the major forces, which may dominate the Madhes region for decades. Unaware of these developments or dictated by their narrow partisan objectives, the major political parties in Kathmandu are just pretending that the unrest in the Madhes region and dissatisfaction among Janajatis and Dalits are nothing more than bubbles. In reality, the national disintegration in the form of de-facto governance has already taken place and if the same trend continues for some time, the political and geographical disintegration of Nepal may become the unfortunate reality.

The ‘big cats’ of the Nepalese politics are not only ignorant of this emerging reality but also they are arrogant. Rather than utilizing the precious time to address the fundamentally important issues of restructuring the state, institutionalizing democracy and building foundation for socio-economic prosperity, these Kathmandu actors invested all their time and energy to keep their unnatural alliance intact and share the fruits of power among themselves. Now, there are three options that could give some hope. 1) If the political activists of the ruling alliance and many other parties could start bombarding their respective Headquarters, snatch leadership power and initiate the process of state building and democratization through incorporation of social and economic justice, federalism and multiculturalism, there could be a ray of hope. 2) If the oppressed nationalities, particularly the Madhesis, Janajatis, Dalits, Khas of Khasan region and Newars could snatch state power from the Khas barons in Kathmandu and share power with all nationalities including the Khas people, particularly the neglected Khas of the Karnali region (Khasan) and start building a genuinely unified Nepal, there could be another ray of hope. And, 3) if the village and district level Maoist cadres could exert tremendous pressure on their leadership and succeed to change their comrades at higher levels and start practicing political pluralism, socio-economic justice and rule of law at the grassroots, there could be another ray of hope. Now, the paradigm has shifted. All hopes are centered around the grassroots activism and not on the acts and actions of the ‘big cats’ in Kathmandu. It may take time but certainly that would ensure building a new society and a new common homeland; the inclusive, prosperous and democratic Nepal.

December, 2007